This one might be rational. As of this instant (4.16 et) Tradesports has Kerry slightly ahead of Bush. I think he should be much further ahead – at this stage he only needs one of Ohio and Florida to win and he’s a slight favourite in both. But it’s another data point.
UPDATE: As Daniel says in comments, both Tradesports and IEM can’t handle the server load today. Post any updated numbers from either site in comments here – if you can get through to those sites.
{ 31 comments }
dsquared 11.02.04 at 9:36 pm
I’ve been shoving up updates as comments to my post. About half an hour after the exit poll data went up on Slate, the IEM bid Kerry up to 58% and then collapsed under the load. Tradesports is also not responding particularly well, so if anyone gets quotes, please post them up here.
Detached Observer 11.02.04 at 9:37 pm
It seems Kerry has been bid up at 60% (at 4:35 pm eastern). Overreaction to early exit poll leaks?
Bernard Yomtov 11.02.04 at 9:42 pm
Can someone post Slate’s numbers if you have them? Their site is not responding.
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 9:46 pm
From Slate – of course CT might not do any better if the load picks up.
Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45
Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50
New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51
Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 9:51 pm
Here’s the 4.45et Iowa numbers – last trade only
Dem_G52 – 0.288
Dem_L52 – 0.395
Rep_L52 – 0.219
Rep_G52 – 0.100
And Tradesports (4.51) has Kerry 62 Bush 37.
Bernard Yomtov 11.02.04 at 9:55 pm
Thank you, Brian.
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 9:58 pm
You can’t reload Tradesports without the market moving. At 4.57 it’s Kerry 67 Bush 34.
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 10:05 pm
Watching these markets is a blast. It’s almost as much fun as watching the Indian betting markets in a particularly close cricket game. By the way, those would make a great test case for the wisdom of crowds theses.
Tradesports seems to have settled down to 67-33 for a bit.
dsquared 11.02.04 at 10:06 pm
Fair do’s to the gambling public; they’re putting their cock on the block and calling it early doors. I have Kerr at 35+22 and Bush at 24+19 as of 1600 CST, with Tradesports not responding at all, not even the plain HTML “emergency” page.
btw, if you don’t like phrases like “cock on the block” and “early doors”, stay away from me as this mockney market-maker’s patois is only going to get worse as I get more drunk!
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 10:08 pm
And here’s the 5.00
Dem_G52 – 0.450
Dem_L52 – 0.394
Rep_L52 – 0.210
Rep_G52 – 0.111
I never thought I’d say this about Iowa, but these numbers seem too Democratic. Dem_G52 seems overpriced to me. We’ll soon see though.
Jason 11.02.04 at 10:11 pm
It’s certainly addicting.
IEM – I just got the following returned.
Symbol Bid Ask
DEM04_G52 0.221 0.950
DEM04_L52 0.387 0.390
REP04_L52 0.201 0.262
REP04_G52 0.075 0.110
Yes, a 70 cent spread on the first item.
dsquared 11.02.04 at 10:13 pm
ach, got a couple of bites. IEM is quoting Kerry @ 38+22 on the bid; there are basically no offers for K>52 so the midprices are meaningless. IEM Bush is 23+9 mid as of 1606 CST (I’m quoting these prices as <52 plus >52, ie Kerry is 38 to win <52 and 22 to win >52% of the popular vote).
Tradesports is very shaky indeed, but I’m seeing Kerry at 61.5 and Bush at 36.5 midprices. The spread on Bush-Ohio has exploded; he’s currently quoted 44-51!
If Alex were here, I think he’d note that the limit order book isn’t really working when there’s big volume to go through (Tradesports are claiming to have done $16m of election contracts today!). There might be a business opportunity if any reader wants to set up a competing operation to Tradesports; I’m guessing that a lot of bettors would regard it as a valuable service if one of these “exchanges” was prepared to act as market maker and take some principal risk to ensure an orderly two-way market.
dsquared 11.02.04 at 10:18 pm
Guys, it’s going to be a lot easier to tell what’s going on if we do what Brian’s doing and standardise on giving the time of the quotes in EST.
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 10:19 pm
Ah, the 4.15ct (i.e. 5.15et) numbers from IEM make more sense.
Dem_G52 – 0.299
Dem_L52 – 0.391
Rep_L52 – 0.186
Rep_G52 – 0.033
dsquared 11.02.04 at 10:20 pm
god we need an IRC channel for this … it’s really addictive. I think that Sky Interactive television might have live quotes; I’ll turn it on and see.
dsquared 11.02.04 at 10:25 pm
Tradesports is holding the line at 61 Kerry and 36 Bush (1720 ET); I suspect that the server is getting so badly thrashed that no trades are going through.
dsquared 11.02.04 at 10:28 pm
Iowa appears to be responding if anything better than we are, so maybe we don’t need to do this for them any more.
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 10:30 pm
Yeah, we really need to *not* be using the CT comments boards.
I think Tradesports has settled down, but it’s hard to tell because the site has basically crashed. As has most of the internet.
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 10:32 pm
4.30ct (5.30et) Iowa numbers
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.268 0.297 0.298 0.130 0.950 0.220
DEM04_L52 0.372 0.414 0.414 0.301 0.423 0.346
REP04_L52 0.201 0.234 0.233 0.183 0.398 0.305
REP04_G52 0.059 0.098 0.057 0.033 0.163 0.108
Sorry for the lousy formatting – we can’t do tables in the CT comments.
dsquared 11.02.04 at 10:38 pm
TS back up to 67 Kerry. They’re responding slowly but reliably now.
FUCK! Bush-Ohio is 38-39? That was like mid 50s when I left work today. The gambling community has spoken and no mistake.
Christ, this is going to be disappointing when the bastard finally wins on a lawsuit. Remember, the market is a pain maximisation machine …
anand 11.02.04 at 10:40 pm
tradesports showing:
bush bid 25 ask 28.5 last 28.5 change -24.5
kerry bid 72 ask 72.8 last 72.8 +25.8
Henry 11.02.04 at 10:42 pm
4pm exit polls from Slate
The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:
Florida
Kerry 52
Bush 48
Ohio
Kerry 52
Bush 47
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Pennsylvania
Kerry 58
Bush 42
Iowa
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Wisconsin
Kerry 53
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 57
Bush 42
New Hampshire
Kerry 58
Bush 41
Maine
Kerry 55
Bush 44
New Mexico
Kerry 49
Bush 49
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 49
Colorado
Kerry 49
Bush 50
Arkansas
Kerry 45
Bush 54
dsquared 11.02.04 at 10:42 pm
I think they’re both OK. Maybe put another update telling people, so we have a fighting chance of staying up ourselves?
Brian Weatherson 11.02.04 at 10:58 pm
Henry, where did you get those #s from? I’m seeing Florida and Ohio still 50-49 at Slate.
kevin donoghue 11.02.04 at 11:04 pm
“Fair do’s to the gambling public; they’re putting their cock on the block and calling it early doors.”
So D-squared, who (quite reasonably) holds that an aggregate production function is an indefensible concept, contends that the gambling public has an aggregate cock.
I look forward to a post on that topic.
John Quiggin 11.02.04 at 11:05 pm
Looking at the movements today, I’d say the markets have the wisdom of a crowd that gets its info from Slate.
A big win for the semi-strong version of the EMH, and an equally big loss for the strong version.
alex 11.02.04 at 11:14 pm
I wonder: if Kerry does win, will the conservative blame-it-on-the-media crowd try to argue that Bush lost because Slate posted the exit poll numbers, creating confidence for a Kerry victory?
dsquared 11.02.04 at 11:19 pm
Further to John’s point, if you look at the comments to my post on the IEM, you’ll see that a crowd which religiously read everything posted on CT could have made big profits[1]; there was a fairly material delay between the exit polls going up on Slate and the prices moving.
[1] in percentage terms anyway; I suspect that liquidity on those contracts were crap.
dsquared 11.02.04 at 11:35 pm
Bush now down to 17+5 mid price on IEM. Surely to God he’s got more of a chance than that? Tradesports has him at 29 bid. For what it’s worth, Newsnight just suggested that Kerry’s lead in the early exit polls was attenuating as more information came in …
dsquared 11.03.04 at 1:17 am
It’s rather a shame that there is no “Comment of the Week” award at CT, because Kevin D. would certainly have won it.
Matt Krause 11.03.04 at 7:01 am
As of 2am EST, it seems that the market has given it to Bush:
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.016 0.005
DEM04_L52 0.014 0.020 0.015 0.001 0.028 0.008
REP04_L52 0.851 0.899 0.898 0.787 0.944 0.865
REP04_G52 0.070 0.090 0.071 0.050 0.169 0.112
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