A Dutch right-wing government?

Here comes my long overdue update on the Dutch government formation (I owe you one on Belgium too, but there isn’t much to report, except the lack of progress, and whatever that could be taken to imply). We had “elections in the Netherlands”:https://crookedtimber.org/2010/06/09/dutch-elections-first-results-and-open-thread/ early June, and the right-liberals, VVD, emerged as the biggest party. They first tried to form a coalition with the Christian-Democrats (CDA) and PVV, the party of Geert Wilders (in fact, it is not a party, but a ‘movement’: Geert Wilders is the only member and the other people do not have any formal power, and from what we can gather in the media also not much real power.) But CDA refused to enter any talks/negotiations if VVD and PVV did not first come to some rough agreement between the two of them. So that turned into nothing.

Dutch politicians then tried to form a coalition with VVD, PvDA (social democrats), D66 (liberal democrats), and GroenLinks (the Greens). They talked for a while in what seemed to be constructive meetings, but VVD pulled out – they didn’t think an agreement on important matters was possible (especially how much and where to cut the government budget) .

Next round, and this time the CDA was willing to talk with VVD and PVV. And in just a few days, they decided that they would start negotiating on a coalition agreement for a government consisting of VVD and CDA only, with PVV supporting/tolerating this coalition from the parliamentary floor (the Dutch word is gedogen, which cannot be properly translated). Such a minority government which is supported by another party from parliament, that does not deliver any ministers, has never been seen in Dutch history before. Since the PVV has currently no members in the senate (elections are due next year), the VVD-CDA-(PVV) coalition has currently no majority there, and thus on its own are not able to pass any laws. Yet some commentators have said that this is not a serious problem, since by the time the first new pieces of legislation need to pass the senate, new elections for the senate will have taken place, which would presumably lead to a majority for VVD-CDA and PVV there too.

Clearly not everyone is happy about the prospect of a right-wing government which is supported by an Islamophobic/xenophobic party. There is lots of debate in the written press, and several individual members of the VVD have said that a liberal party cannot collaborate with a party that violates basic constitutional rights such as the freedom of religion. An increasing number of members of CDA are raising their voices against a coalition which is supported by Wilders’ party. Notably in this respect is “a petition”:http://wijstaanvooronzegrondrechten.org/, which by now has been signed by more than 1,000 CDA-members, who are opposing a VVD-CDA government which is supported by Wilders. Yet what Wilders always does – to divide – he does here too, since “another petition”:http://wijstaanachterhetcda.org/ with as many supporters has been created, which supports the potential VVD-CDA-(PVV) coalition. Since the CDA is a democratic party, the members will decide on whether they approve of any agreement that their leader will make with VVD and PVV, so it is as yet entirely unclear whether these negotiations will lead to a government.

What I am most amazed about (and this is not an original insight, more people have voiced it in public), is that CDA and VVD allow the PVV to play this role of being in power without delivering any ministers that will actually run a ministerial department. Wilders probably doesn’t have the right people for that in his party, and moreover it is unlikely whether he would be able to keep any PVV ministers under control, whereas now he basically rules the party single-handedly. So with this deal that VVD and CDA will form a government, and PVV will support them in parliament in return for some of his demands being realised, the PVV only has the benefits but not the burdens of being in power. If they can’t make mistakes, they are unlikely to be punished at the next elections; so in this set-up, it seems likely to me that the PVV will only become stronger at the next elections. Surely that cannot be what VVD and CDA want?

So what is in it, then, for VVD and CDA? First of all, actual power to rule, of course. In addition, by having the most right-wing government possible, they will take further steps in dismantling the welfare state. The VVD wants to cut the budget with 18 Billion Euro’s (we’re talking here of a small country with 16 million inhabitants). In my view, a nice place to look for cuts would be in the excessive tax deductions for home-owners, which cost the Dutch state 11 Billion a year and this figure will only grow when the total volume of mortgages increases. It is a well known fact that this fiscal measure benefits the richest decile in the population the most (since there is no cap on the level of the mortgage for which one can claim tax deduction). Instead, VVD and CDA want to cut in those sectors that are most important for the worst-off or most vulnerable people, and also for the middle-classes, such as the government-funded long-term care for the disabled and fragile elderly. There have been for a while alarming reports about the quality of elderly care and care for the disabled, and there are absurdly long waiting lists in the mental health sector (for diagnosis, treatment, or access to special needs education for children), and if I think of the massive need for investment in primary education (and other levels of education too, in fact), then I really think these budget cuts are going to be hard, unjust, and will create deep damage for years to come. Ironically, of all three parties in the negotiations, it is Wilders’ PVV which is most ‘social’ when it concerns the Dutch social security system/welfare state. He is, for example, claiming to protect the subsidies that flow to care for the elderly, and claims to aim to spend more money on nurses. However, the latest news is that he has agreed with the massive cuts in return for tougher migration laws. So that shows his priorities.

VVD, CDA and PVV have agreed not to speak to the press until they reach an agreement, so apart from these rumors and small leakages, there isn’t much else known on how much progress they have made. Will try to keep you posted.