A New Hope

by John Q on January 28, 2026

Ever since it became evident that Trump was likely to be re-elected, I’ve been among the most pessimistic of commentators on the likely course of US politics (most recently here for example). I’ve also been nowhere near pessimistic enough. I assumed that Trump would follow the course of dictators like Putin and Orban, gradually eroding freedom and making his own power permanent. Instead, he’s gone most of the way inside a year.

He started by blackmailing corporations, law firms and universities. Amazingly, while the corporations and law firms buckled (or collaborated) immediately, at least some universities have resisted as best they could.

And while predictions of mass deportations, concentration camps and troops on the streets, were derided in 2024, they are now an established reality. The only surprise here is that Trump has not yet invoked the Insurrection Act.

Trump’s run for a third term has already been announced, as has the necessary previous step, the cancellation of the 2026 mid-term elections. All done in the usual “joking, not joking” fashion in which he announced his intention to be a dictator immediately after the 2024 election, and which fools the US commentariat every time.

And throughout all this, he has retained the overwhelming support of Republicans, both politicians and voters. His declining poll numbers (parallel to his first term) reflect his failure to lower the price of eggs, not any hint that his base supporters (about 40 per cent of all Americans and a majority of white American men) are repelled by his corruption, fascism and general evil.

All through 2025, there was little sign of effective resistance. The Democrats were useless as usual. And whereas the situation called for continuous mass protest, there were just a couple of well-attended but ineffectual “No Kings” rallies.

Despite all this, I’m feeling more hopeful today than I have for some time. Trump’s humiliation at Davos and the rejection of his absurd Board of Peace ( as I read somewhere, made up of dictators, monarchs and wanted criminals) shows that the free world (still a meaningful term) is writing him off, and is preparing to do without the US. In particular, the success of Europe, including Ukraine, in holding Russia at bay without US help means that the threat of leaving NATO no longer scares anybody as it used to (except of course Mark Rutte, whose job is on the line).

Even more importantly, the heroic resistance of the people of Minneapolis to Trump’s murderous secret police provides a basis for future action, and seems likely to ensure that the situation will reach crisis point well before the scheduled date for the mid-terms. The Democrats have finally been shamed into action, and may perhaps stand firm this time. There’s even some chance that the invisible group of decent Republicans, on whom so much reliance has been placed, will finally emerge from hiding and break with Trump.

The odds against saving US democracy remain long. And the international position of the US is gone for good, even if Trump is defeated for now. Only a wholesale repudiation of the Republican party by a durable majority can begin to undo the damage done in a single year. Perhaps in a reversion to my normal over-optimism, I’m starting to hope that might happen.

{ 53 comments }

1

James McA 01.28.26 at 12:59 pm

The US has been the rogue actor for at least twenty years, but imperial Europe was quite happy to go along with the charade of world order as long as capital and influence was maintained to the benefit of WASPs. Now that the US President is carrying out the US’ agenda shamelessly they start clutching pearls, and are terrified that their hubristic wilful ignorance of the rest of the world has left them clamouring for existential meaning.

The EU’s biggest error of the last fifteen years was not Brexit (which they weathered quite well), but expanding by ten countries at once, rather than in twos and threes as they had been doing up to that point. They invited the vampire into the house in Orban, who has systematically destroyed the systems of law that were still in their early years.

To correct course, only a true break from the US economically, politically and culturally will ensure the survival of the European project. A healthy start would be stopping media like the BBC and RTÉ fawning over every frame of PBS and CBS News. Why did we get weather forecasts for the US last week? What does it matter to me if there’s going to be a bit of snow in Texas? Why do people in Britain and Ireland know the names of US cabinet members, but likely couldn’t name their own MP / TD? Why does American pop music get boosted directly to the Radio 1 playlist when they don’t even visit the UK, while regional musicians and record labels can’t even get a meeting? Why are the BBC devoting license-payers resources to NFL – human chess for slavers – when most people couldn’t tell you what colours the England netball team play in.

Thankfully Macron has taken the hint and is actually threatening to use Europe’s most potent weapon against the US (and arguably the only one we have) with the ‘Bazooka’ that would stop enforcing US copyright. They shouldn’t just be readying the threat, they should be preparing the courts, publishers etc to be ready to enforce it at a moment’s notice.

2

Tim H. 01.28.26 at 1:02 pm

Agreed, the closest thing to a bright spot, not without collateral damage, the malefactors of great wealth may learn the value of a US Dollar is tied to the economic health of the entire Nation. If they have this FAFO, they’ll lose much of their ability to choose the priorities of government. Some progress may become possible.

3

MisterMr 01.28.26 at 3:45 pm

@James McA 1

“Now that the US President is carrying out the US’ agenda shamelessly they start clutching pearls, and are terrified that their hubristic wilful ignorance of the rest of the world has left them clamouring for existential meaning.”

Small correction: now that the US President is carrying out the US’ agenda explicitly against European countries’ interests (see Greenland and Ukraine) they are terrified and are more serious about the rule of law.

I think it is just good old shameless self interest, also the fact that building up an unified euroarmy is a hell of a problem.

4

Laban 01.28.26 at 6:51 pm

Tim H 2

“the value of a US Dollar is tied to the economic health of the entire Nation”

But … for a very long time – at least 20 years and probably more – the US economy has been extremely poorly, manufacturing has been gutted* and the balance of payments is dreadful – while the dollar has held firm and stock markets have boomed. For example, the nation that turned out three Liberty ships every two days now produces almost no non-military vessels.

You could say the same for the UK, where stock markets are at record highs while living standards are in decline and non-food manufacturing is down the tubes.

If (as seems quite possible) the US hits the buffers I would be wary of the replacement hegemon – especially if, as I believe Mr Quiggin does, I lived in the Antipodes.

* “Nowhere is American weakness more apparent than in advanced manufacturing. Leadership in this category has long been a sine qua non for a superpower. Indeed, America’s mid-20th-century dominance was based on little else. But those industries have been eviscerated that a 2005 Department of Defense report pronounced America’s security at risk. “There is no longer a diverse base of U. S. integrated circuit fabricators capable of meeting trusted and classified chip needs,” the report said. “From a U.S. national security view, the potential effects of this restructuring are so perverse and far reaching and have such opportunities for mischief that, had the United States not significantly contributed to this migration, it would have been considered a major triumph of an adversary nation’s strategy to undermine U.S. military capabilities.”

5

Lee A. Arnold 01.28.26 at 6:53 pm

1.) I think the Democrats’ message position should be the following:

We would already have full border security, and a court system capable to adjudicate all the immigrants’ claims, peaceful and properly funded, if Congress had passed comprehensive immigration reform like Biden wanted (and every other President before him.) Instead, Trump told Republicans to reject the bill (sponsored by a conservative Republican, Lankford!), to get himself re-elected and make a murderous mess. <<

I remember predicting here about a year ago (I think under one of your posts, JQ) that Trump’s deportations will be so cruel and anti-American that even some of Trump’s supporters would become susceptible to arguments for comprehensive immigration reform.

2.) I think the longer-term lesson for the world’s democracies will be that any nation can elect a really bad leader, and provision must be made for that, in your own constitutional design. And your own foreign policy might always become hostage to any dependence upon another democracy that might elect a really bad leader, so plan accordingly.

The U.S. “founding fathers” surely understood from the history of monarchies the ever present likelihood of getting stuck with a really bad leader. Their system of checks and balances may have underweighted the possibility that Congress might fail to investigate or impeach because it is dominated by cowards of the president’s own party. But in Trump’s case it is the judiciary which is providing the checking and balancing, including protection of the Bill of Rights to ensure freedom of speech and assembly. So we take it to the streets…

We’ll be fighting in the street,
With our grandkids at our feet…

I think if that the U.S. survives this stupid childish egotistical crooked monster, it will be further proof to the world that all of our democracies make the best way to live.

6

Jeff B 01.28.26 at 9:53 pm

Are you predicting no election in 2026? If you’re wrong about that, will you admit you’re wrong about Trump’s chances of continuing in power?
IMO Trump is a competitive authoritarian like Orban – without Orban’s initial popularity; there will be elections and he will likely lose them. Elections alone won’t remove him; but elections were a major element in removing authoritarian leaders including even Milosevic, for example.

7

Austin Loomis 01.28.26 at 9:58 pm

James McA skrev:

The EU’s biggest error of the last fifteen years was not Brexit (which they weathered quite well)

It can’t very well have been their biggest, given that it was the UK’s error anyway. :P

8

Alex SL 01.28.26 at 10:14 pm

On the one hand, I am more pessimistic than you are, because the far right seems to be on the rise all over, not only in the USA.

And as you write, the Democrats are completely useless, prompting the usual stupid or evil conundrum. That, by the way, is something I would like to see explored more. I am following a former social scientist on Bluesky who lands on stupid, recently calling the stance of the centre-left across Western countries terminal Linked-in brain. In contrast, a documentary maker whose films I enjoy watching lands on evil, arguing that Schumer’s self-admitted role in the political system is to keep down progressives. I am not sure what to think without being able to personally interview the Schumers, Carneys, and Starmers of the world. (Admittedly, though, Starmer’s performance is of the kind that the conundrum reduces to “stupid or stupid AND evil”, so that is perhaps not a case like the others.)

On the other hand, I still find it difficult to believe that US elections would simply be cancelled. I am also told that they are mostly organised by the states (?), which, if correct, would make cancelling them more difficult than if it they were organised centrally. What seems more likely to me is that elections take place, but selected Dem candidates will be arrested or investigated for corruption, and to the already long-established voter suppression efforts will be added ICE goons “guarding” polling stations and beating up or dragging off anybody who doesn’t look white enough. That way they can still say the USA are a democracy, and most editorial writers will swallow that, and also get the validation of winning elections: see, all the real Americans love what we are doing! We are popular! That affirmation is important to narcissists.

On the third hand (it seems I using generative AI for this analogy), many people who say that Trump couldn’t do that because the states/courts wouldn’t let him seem hopelessly naive. Do they think that all the other countries in the world that became dictatorships did not have rules saying that elections should take place and suchlike? When the armed thugs show up and tell the officials to do as they are told or be dragged off to a camp, what exactly is an election law or established precedent going to do? On that note, I am also skeptical about the people pointing at public opinion shifting over Minnesota and saying, “we are winning!” Are you? Even if ICE leaves that particular state and moves on to terrorise another, what is your mechanism of action for abolishing the organisation and prosecuting its goons, given that the Dems would first have to win several heavily rigged elections and then be willing to do that, both of which seem delusional? This is South Park sock gnomes levels of political strategy.

So, I would be more optimistic if the Dems at least had started to coalesce around a presidential candidate who aggressively campaigns on prosecuting MAGA abuses and corruption, shutting down DHS and ICE, and dismantling right-wing media monopolies. But nothing like that is on the horizon.

9

LFC 01.29.26 at 3:17 am

From the OP:
Amazingly, while the corporations and law firms buckled (or collaborated) immediately

Not all law firms buckled. Some fought back successfully in the courts. But it’s true that (at least based on what I’ve read) big law firms have been on the whole less willing to represent adversaries of Trump and whistleblowers etc. than they were in his first term, leaving smaller firms (and progressive public-interest litigation groups) to try to take up the slack.

10

Global South Visitor 01.29.26 at 6:07 am

This post denotes so much the position of a “domestic citizen” of Empire… “Free world” is “still” a meaningful term? Seriously? Presumably the segregated US was more “free world” than the revolutionary Cubans in 1960… This should be obvious by now but it bears repeating: what the US is seeing now is the exact same weapons that it has always pointed outward to sustain its putative “freedom” being turned inward to its own population. I would not place my hopes on the “free world” coming to save anyone. I agree with @MisterMr above. Europe’s dismissal of the US and build-up of military power does not promise much more than concern: it demonstrates that exclusionary priorities remain firmly in place.

11

Ray Vinmad 01.29.26 at 6:56 am

You’ve been right so far, John.

There are some insights about the Carney speech in this piece by Bill McKibben. Though I am not optimistic (he isn’t either) there could even be a path forward that includes the USA.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/maybe-the-united-states-can-be-one-of-mark-carneys-middle-powers

I wonder whether the hardest thing for Europe might be the coordination it takes to create ‘the free world’ as it used to be called. That might be another reason that democratic countries allowed the US to lead (and to cheat and behave as a rogue state) even when they must have realized before Trump (e.g., under Bush) how haywire things are here. They didn’t have to assess their differences as much or resolve glaring disputes on security, etc.–but instead could simply allow the US to have its way.

So if there were ‘a league of middle powers’ created after this catastrophe, it would include the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Asia…

But then how much do they want to exploit the powers beneath them? This has always been a problem –the wealth of the middle powers does depend on resource and labor exploitation. So..I dunno. I think it can work without that. I have always thought this because there is resource extraction in richer countries, there is manufacturing in richer countries. We know it can be done –not without exploitation but without as many grotesque horrors–but it is less profitable.

If you want to have a peaceful world that doesn’t look like this one with US-sponsored invasions and coups–you’d have to convince everyone on this matter. Americans seem the hardest to convince. The Trump era has made me wonder if there is something in our culture that creates too many people who simply do not like the idea of everyone doing well. This could change, of course but our ex-empire culture might be more like Russia’s. Maybe our national pride will end up weirdly tied up in peevishly setting fires everywhere we can.

12

Laban 01.29.26 at 10:13 am

@11 – “something in our culture that creates too many people who simply do not like the idea of everyone doing well”

Nothing to do with culture, everything to do with economics. The thing is that a lot of people – and nearly all young people – are no longer doing very well – both in the US and in the UK. “It is no coincidence”, as the Marxists used to say, that as manufacturing has declined (i.e. moved to the Far East) housing costs have soared. Welcome to the rentier economy.

https://www.newsweek.com/american-dream-dead-opinion-1917153

“The American Dream is dead…with few exceptions, your birthdate now determines whether you will be part of a permanent class of debt-dependent renters who spend their lives scrambling to keep up or financially independent owners who have the leisure to cultivate passions and become influential members of local society.”

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/oct/27/private-rent-britain-record-swallows-average-wage

The typical advertised private rent outside London for properties coming on to the market rose to a record £1,385 a calendar month in the third quarter of this year, according to the property website Rightmove. The average London rent reached a new high of £2,736. The site said it was the third consecutive quarterly record for advertised rents this year, adding that affordability for would-be tenants “remains very stretched”. Despite average earnings rising by 5% compared with last year, the cost of renting was swallowing up 44% of the average wage – up from 40% five years ago.

And remember a lot of these “properties” will be single rooms in a shared house – undergraduate living for thirtysomethings.

13

steven t johnson 01.29.26 at 11:23 am

Laban@4 “…the balance of payments is dreadful…” Unless I have badly lost track, the balance of payments is doing okay. The balance of trade is not favorable to the US. I would cite economics as to why domestic production has not been profitable but I don’t know what the currently accepted theory of the dynamics of profit rates is. These things should make a difference in policy recommendation.

I am certain Trumpery is not a re-industrialization policy. Biden’s Build Back Better had some pretenses to be, but it was never close to being enacted…and it was still too little, too late, just like President Band-Aid himself. (Or should be Buchanan Redux?)

14

Tm 01.29.26 at 2:22 pm

1: „Now that the US President is carrying out the US’ agenda shamelessly“

No. Trump is not carrying out a “US agenda” in the sense of pursuing US national interests. To the contrary he’s consistently acting against the country’s interests. Neither his trade war nor weakening NATO and certainly not threatening allies like Denmark and Canada have anything to do with pursuing national interests. Neither are his corruption, his war against the rule of law, his attempt at turning the US into an anachronistic fossil fuel empire (while the fossil economy is globally in decline), his hostility to immigration. All his signature policies – really without exception – are antagonistic to the national interest and will result in the sharp decline and possibly collapse of US economic standing and geopolitical power, mostly to the benefit of China.

In this light, it is extremely remarkable that US economic elites are still mostly standing behind Trump, supporting resp enabling his most deranged moves even when they hurt their own economic interests. This behavior is most in need of an explanation. In my observation it suggests that the support of US (and even to some extent global) elites is based on real ideological alignment, not opportunism.

Btw John regarding the purported support of 40% of Americans: this support is almost irrelevant. The only support that is really relevant is that of the economic elites, and they could end this nightmare any moment if they wanted.

15

somebody who went outside in 2024 01.29.26 at 4:16 pm

america has been a snarling dog since 9/11 and arguably the symptoms of rabies were present long before that. sometimes the leash holds for a little while, so long as you speak to it placatingly enough and feed it enough. but then something pops in its brain and the leash snaps. we dont need to cancel elections – if trump runs a third time in 2028 he will easily win despite being hated. what’s the alternative? peace and prosperity? americans hate peace and prosperity if a woman or a black person might taste in them, and prefer terror, poverty and torture – any amount of personal misery is acceptable if white supremacy can survive. rip to the rest of the world but america has nukes and if you think trump (or nick fuentes, if trump dies before 2028) won’t order denmark bombed “because of woke” you haven’t been paying attention. turn on the radio, watch newsmax. they wont be satisfied with ethnically cleansing america. they’ll ethnically cleanse the rest of the world. america is the family annihilator of the earth. fully satisfied and happy only if they kill everyone else before themselves.

16

Tim H. 01.29.26 at 5:56 pm

Laban @4, It’s been a long time falling. Decades of rationalizing how the desires of the wealthy were what was good for a Nation. It may not be done falling in my remaining years, but by the time it’s done, there may not be a government capable of “Harshing the mellow” of a wealthy person, but it’s not likely to be US Dollars that wealth is in.

17

CityCalmDown 01.29.26 at 6:52 pm

The Present U.S. Civil State of War
What is commonly described as a coming “second civil war” in the United States is better understood as a present civil state of war. This is not an event awaiting ignition, nor a threshold yet to be crossed, but an already operative condition—unevenly distributed, structurally sustained, and persistently denied. In significant respects, the first civil war never fully concluded; it was reconfigured, re-litigated, and metabolized into institutions, law, political economy, and social hierarchy. What persists today is not mass mobilization or formal secession, but generalized belligerence: fragmented legitimacy, weaponized law, incompatible moral realities, and differential exposure to state and non-state violence within a single polity.
This condition is difficult to recognize precisely because it does not announce itself as war. Violence appears stochastically rather than strategically, episodically rather than cumulatively. There are no clear fronts, no stable enemies, no credible horizon of restoration. Liberal-republican categories—crisis, polarization, democratic backsliding—remain in circulation, but they increasingly misclassify the present by treating it as a deviation from normality rather than as a new normal. The error is not one of alarmism but of temporality: what is diagnosed as a future risk already structures the present.

The present civil state of war cannot be explained by political conflict alone. It is constituted by the interaction of several large-scale destructive processes that together constitute the HyperObject of Major Destructive Events.

Ecocidal climate change functions as a form of background warfare, reorganizing the United States into zones of abandonment and protection, intensifying inequality, and eroding the fiscal and infrastructural bases of governance.

Oligarchical capitalist class war—structural, bipartisan, and global—operates independently of electoral outcomes, liquidating redistributive gains after each partial rebalancing and converting democratic institutions into extraction interfaces.

This Oligarchical capitalist class war is waged by BOTH THE DEMOCRATS and the GOP.

Peace no longer exists even as an idea. Permanent war persists without any countervailing conception of peace: no robust pacifist movements, no peace architecture, no institutionalized horizon of de-escalation. The opposite of war is not peace. The opposite of war is nothing.

Finally, the condition that Gunther Anders called the “Promethean Gap” prevails in which comprehension lags irreversibly behind events; governance becomes reactive by default, and understanding may never arrive in time to matter.

Together, these processes produce a degraded political form. Carl Schmitt’s friend–enemy distinction no longer stabilizes order but collapses inward, sorting populations probabilistically as threats. Exception proliferates without a sovereign decision capable of restoring legitimacy. Enforcement persists without persuasion; law functions instrumentally rather than as constraint. What emerges is exception without sovereignty—coercion without order, violence without resolution.

Much contemporary analysis fails not because it misidentifies empirical indicators, but because it treats civil war as an event-category rather than a condition-category. Models that project escalation into the future—however sophisticated—unintentionally preserve the fiction that the present remains fundamentally non-war. By contrast, this diagnosis holds that the war that must not occur (to adapt Dupuy’s formulation), is already occurring and that denial is one of its enabling mechanisms.

This claim is not unfalsifiable. It implies expectations: continued degradation rather than stabilization, increasing stochastic violence rather than organized confrontation, policy volatility that amplifies instability, and the absence of any durable restoration of shared reality sufficient to re-legitimate enforcement. It would be weakened by the emergence of sustained peace institutions, redistribution that survives multiple crisis cycles, or climate mitigation that reduces rather than intensifies inequality. None are logically impossible; all are structurally improbable under present conditions.

To name the present as a civil state of war is not to predict apocalypse or to abandon ethics. It is to refuse the comfort of misclassification. The task that follows is not redemption or heroic opposition, but clarity without hysteria, endurance without denial, and the preservation of dignity in a world where resolution can no longer be presumed.

18

CityCalmDown 01.29.26 at 6:54 pm

Civil War, Capitalism, and Racialised Legitimacy
The present US “civil state of war” cannot be adequately understood within a narrowly national or post–civil rights frame. It must be situated within the longue durée of capitalist expansion, imperialisation, colonial domination, and their contemporary heir, neoliberal globalisation. Race and racism are not contingent cultural residues layered onto capitalism after the fact; they are constitutive mechanisms of capitalist social relations. Capitalism, as a world-system organised around geographically differentiated exploitation of labour, has historically depended on racialised dispossession, coerced labour, and population management. From slavery and colonial forced labour to contemporary regimes of migrant precarity, racialisation has functioned as a material technology of accumulation and control, not merely as ideology or prejudice.
As W. E. B. Du Bois observed, the “color line” names a global structure of exclusion: the systematic denial to much of humanity of access to the opportunities and privileges of modern civilisation. Who is racialised, how, and to what effect cannot be understood apart from capitalist exploitation and imperial hierarchy. Attempts to theorise race independently of capitalism—or to treat class and race as competing explanatory frameworks—commit a category error. They abstract a governing instrument of political economy into a free-floating moral pathology, while leaving intact the social relations that generate both deprivation and hierarchy.
This misrecognition is politically functional. Liberal and conservative efforts to mechanically separate “race” from “class,” or to pit the grievances of racialised populations against those of a mythologised “white working class,” fragment potential solidarities while preserving property relations. Deprivation in deindustrialised regions and the material inequalities borne by racialised communities are not rival injustices; they are distinct moments within a single capitalist totality, produced through imperial histories, uneven development, and ongoing global circuits of value extraction. As Theodore W. Allen demonstrated, racial categories themselves—most notably “whiteness”—were consciously constructed as ruling-class technologies, designed to fracture labour and stabilise domination by distributing differential privileges. Anti-racism that does not confront capitalism remains structurally limited; anti-capitalism that treats racism as secondary or cultural is analytically incoherent.

It is against this background that the present US condition comes into focus. The contemporary “civil state of war” is best understood not as partisan polarisation or democratic malfunction, but as a legitimacy crisis of a mature capitalist polity. Culture war, identity conflict, constitutional brinkmanship, and episodic political violence are surface phenomena generated by a deeper contradiction: the declining capacity of capitalist accumulation to reproduce social consent. As legitimacy thins, coercion is increasingly tasked with compensatory work. Policing and the carceral state therefore operate not as neutral instruments of law, but as regime technologies, managing surplus populations, disciplining labour, and containing the social fallout of enclosure, deindustrialisation, and the commodification of the commons. The escalation of force is not aberrant; it is symptomatic.
This perspective dissolves the apparent novelty of contemporary conflict. The oscillation between punitive expansion and reformist retreat—exemplified by political figures who once authored mass-incarceration regimes and later sought to mitigate them—reflects not moral inconsistency but structural contradiction. Culture-war antagonisms (Dem vs GOP, Christian family vs LGBTQ, white identity vs multiculturalism) function as ideological shunts: they mobilise affect while diverting attention from the vertical axis of capital versus labour, accumulation versus social reproduction. These conflicts absorb dissent without threatening the commodity form or the underlying relations of exploitation.
In this sense, authoritarian tendencies should not be treated as external threats to liberalism but as latent options internal to it, activated under conditions of stress. As Max Horkheimer warned, refusal to speak about capitalism forecloses any serious account of fascism; the contemporary corollary is that refusal to interrogate liberalism as the ruling ideology of the capitalist world-system renders analysis of authoritarian drift incoherent. Following the counter-historical critique advanced by Liberalism: A Counter-History, liberal freedom has always been selectively allocated, defended through regulation, hierarchy, and coercion. The present crisis does not represent liberalism’s betrayal of its ideals, but the exposure of their historical limits as coercion becomes increasingly visible where consent can no longer be sustained.
The expansion of federal immigration enforcement provides a concentrated illustration of this dynamic. The January 2026 surge in Minneapolis—where federal agents fatally shot Alex Pretti and Renée Good amid ICE operations and protests—exposed how coercive state power operates at the intersection of capitalist crisis and racialised meaning. Agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) now function as interiorised border regimes, extending sovereign violence deep into metropolitan space. Their actions have provoked widespread protest, jurisdictional conflict, and legal contestation precisely because they render visible the coercive underside of governance.
In the ideological terrain of late capitalism, enforcement against migrants and racialised populations resonates with long-standing narratives of demographic threat and racialised insecurity. ICE does not merely enforce immigration statutes; it stages spectacles of dominance that echo and reinforce white nationalist imaginaries—visions of existential threat posed by “others” at the nation’s edges and within its heterogeneous interiors. These dynamics are not reducible to explicit white supremacist movements alone. They draw on discursive lineages extending from the Southern Strategy to contemporary right-wing media tropes about demographic replacement. The result is a racialised logic of coercion in which immigrant bodies become privileged sites of sovereign violence, and in which claims of “law and order” are constituted through precisely those spectacles of force that further erode the state’s claim to moral authority.

19

Sam B 01.29.26 at 10:52 pm

Trump “announcing” the cancellation of the midterm elections is as real as if he announced that he has deposed the Pope. He’s got no way of achieving it. The presidency and executive have no role in administering elections. He could try and get federal agents to interfere with the administration of elections but 1) there are 100,000 polling places in America and 2) he has demonstrated that he can’t take the political blowback of murdering two people. And they weren’t even killed as part of some black bag scheme but randomly by poorly trained goons. The gap between what he’d need to have happen to prevent elections and what he has demonstrated the capability to do is an ocean.

If you really believe there is a material chance he will succeed in cancelling elections I invite you to wager on it, either with me or if you want on a prediction market. I

20

J-D 01.29.26 at 11:39 pm

https://www.newsweek.com/american-dream-dead-opinion-1917153

“The American Dream is dead…with few exceptions, your birthdate now determines whether you will be part of a permanent class of debt-dependent renters who spend their lives scrambling to keep up or financially independent owners who have the leisure to cultivate passions and become influential members of local society.”

No, not your birthdate. That’s a classic example of missing the point, as indeed is most of the Newsweek piece.

A more honest arrangement of much the same information as is included in that Newsweek piece might be structured a little like this:
America has long had a divide between poor people and rich people, but in recent decades the problem has become progressively worse: with each year that goes by, there have been more poor people and fewer but richer rich people, with the divide between them becoming harder and harder to bridge.
Although the causes of social problems are generally difficult to trace with certainty, it is at least a reasonable guess that this intensifying inequality has been a major factor in other problems that now concern many people, such as fewer people marrying and having children and rapidly increasing rates of deaths from drug overdoses and other so-called ‘deaths of despair’.
If the government acts to reduce the inequality between rich and poor, it may produce many significant benefits for all of American society.

It’s not birthdates which are making people poor, it’s the rise of the billionaires which is making people poor. Fundamentally, the Newsweek opinion writer either hasn’t thought or doesn’t dare to say ‘The government should tax billionaires out of existence’. So what does that leave them with? Roughly speaking, ‘People need to change, and they need a President who will tell them to change.’ No, that won’t cut it. Neither will attending to charlatans like Jordan Peterson, but even that is something the Newsweek writer lacks either the insight or the courage to say.

21

John Q 01.30.26 at 12:45 am

James B. and Alex SL

I interpret Trump’s announcement to mean that he intends to make sure that any voting procedure held this year is an election only in the sense that Russia or North Korea holds elections. In particular, until the last week or two, I assumed that ICE would take the lead role in preventing undesirables from voting, as Alex suggests. That may be a bit harder now, and Trump’s overreach there may make it harder to prosecute Democrats etc. I don’t know if he has a Plan C, or what that will be.

I don’t know what will happen, but I certainly don’t expect 2026 to be a year of more-or-less normal politics culminating in a regular mid-term election (subject to the usual voter suppression, but no more) in which the Republicans lose the House and maybe the Senate. If that happens, I’ll happily admit I was wrong.

22

John Q 01.30.26 at 7:42 am

Sam B @19 The second point is relevant, the first is not. Trump doesn’t need to deploy troops at 10 000 polling places. He can rely on Republican officials to deliver the desired outcome in ~30 states, and on rural voters to support him in every state. That probably leaves about 2000 polling places where he would need ICE goons, which gives him 10 goons/place to get a clean sweep. If he was satisfied with a big win, he could do it much more easily.

But, as the OP suggests, successful resistance in Minnesota changes the calculus. I’m not sure why you thought this was a point to make against me.

23

Tm 01.30.26 at 9:27 am

In related news:

U.S. Population Growth Slows Due to Historic Decline in Net International Migration

The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration… Between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, net international migration was 1.3 million, a notable drop from 2.7 million the year before (a decline of 53.8%). If current trends continue, net international migration is projected to be approximately 321,000 by July 2026.

Natural change for the nation neared 519,000 between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, roughly the same as the prior year. Although higher than the levels observed during the pandemic earlier this decade, this still represents a significant decline from prior decades. In 2017, natural change was about 1.1 million, and during the 2000-to-2010 decade, it ranged between 1.6 million and 1.9 million.”

So Trump has been successful in that respect of preventing/deterring immigration. Notice these data are based on not very reliable estimates, not on a real registration system, and only cover half of Trump’s first year.

I hardly need to reiterate that I don’t consider lack of population growth a bad thing per se. But this hostility to immigration is simply irrational, it hurts the US economically and its global standing in many was, and it definitely won’t succeed in “making America white again”. The US still has a birth excess but it’s shrinking and will turn negative in the near future like in every other developed country. (And of course at most half of those children are white).

In Trump’s first year, the fertility rate has declined to another record low (although less than I would have expected), the number of births the second lowest since 1980. The only way to really increase fertility, I suspect, would be to ban contraception, and that’s gonna be hard to pull off.

The white nationalists/fascists are panicking about the “white race’s” demographic weight relentlessly shrinking but theres nothing they can do about it. Perhaps that explains the lack of any coherent political project on the Right, except in the negative sense of causing a maximum of damage.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/population-growth-slows.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

24

Laban 01.30.26 at 10:24 am

@13 – the US balance of payments deficit is very large, in goods it’s YUGE. Around $900bn a year. Not that a Brit can snipe.

@20 – I agree with you but the point is that people’s lives, especially the young, are getting worse – and property prices/rents are the major part of that. Saying that the proportion of national income going to working people has fallen sharply is another way of putting it.

Birth date just means that housing was affordable for a 20-something born in 1950, but it isn’t for a 20-something born in 2000.

25

MisterMr 01.30.26 at 11:37 am

@J-D 20

Although I believe mostly you are right, there has been a long term increase in the wealth to income ratio, that in general will mean that houses’ prices will be higer relative to average income:

https://en.macromicro.me/cross-country-database/wealth-income-ratio

some years ago this was a commonent argument as with Piketty’s s/b (or whatever) ratio.
Though, this ratio increase happened in China too, it is not just rich countries.

26

Lee A. Arnold 01.30.26 at 1:15 pm

If any of you knows of a book or a study which looks at MASS PROTEST, specifically as it evolves into part of the regular checks and balances in a governmental system, please list it here below. I don’t know anything about the structure of other polities in the world in specific regard to their “checks and balances” function, so perhaps a few bibliographic pointers there, too. Let me explain my idea a little, from my own U.S. viewpoint: the “checks and balances” of the U.S. system is the Constitutional structure that the legislative Congress (Article I), executive President (Article II) and judiciary courts (Article III) have separate powers, with various prescribed abilities to check and balance each other. Historically it is seen that the judiciary is the slowest of the lot, due to its long internal procedures that are necessary to finding justice (though of course not always sufficient). However in the U.S. the Bill of Rights (the first ten amendments to the Constitution) the First Amendment protects freedom of speech AND freedom of peaceful assembly (for example, street protest). Street protest is perhaps the quickest mass response; it can come sooner than any election, sooner than an executive response, sooner than congressional legislation. And though the executive and congress are sworn to uphold the Constitution, a main way that speech and assembly are protected against infringement is the judiciary: the slowest “check and balance.” Thus it is, that the slowest power (Article III) is most protective of the quickest responses afforded by the Bill of Rights, including mass protest. Furthermore, although U.S. street protest is often understood as being outside the processes of governance, functionally it becomes a rather regular part of the checks and balances provided by Article III. I would like to know of ideas or studies that look at the connections of speech and particularly protest, to the governmental structures in other countries.

27

LFC 01.30.26 at 3:35 pm

Laban @4
The whole point of the CHIPs Act, signed into law during the Biden admin, was to reverse the decline in chip manufacturing in the U.S. These things take time, of course, but I think if you went into the matter you would find that it is having some success.

‘somebody who went outside…’ @15
I disagree, but my experience has been that responding to your comments is fairly pointless, so I’m not going to bother, at least not right now.

28

J, not that one 01.30.26 at 3:44 pm

The federal government doesn’t run elections, but there are a few elements of state elections that are subject to federal law, and I’d expect Trump and the GOP to attempt to declare, for example, that mail-in ballots are illegitimate and any election that involves them has to be ignored. The Republican-run Congress has refused to seat D representatives one at a time and conceivably could refuse to seat anyone Trump declared not really elected. Some of these are more likely than others. That this could be a trial run for 2028 is also something to be considered. If anything doesn’t work this year, they have to fine-tune it and try again.

I personally don’t think Trump cares that much whether he achieves totalitarian power and will just keep trying to do whatever he can, wherever he can. He doesn’t really need to cancel “the midterm elections,” there’s no additional benefit to interfering except in a few states. If he overpromises, we say TACO and he tries again later.

29

J, not that one 01.30.26 at 3:45 pm

“Have time to fine tune it”

30

Tm 01.30.26 at 8:33 pm

somebody 15: “they wont be satisfied with ethnically cleansing america. they’ll ethnically cleanse the rest of the world.”

Maybe certain Trumpist Nazis like Miller find the idea of “ethnically cleansing” the whole world appealing, but what does that even mean and how would they do it? And how does this apply to Denmark, which is a much whiter society than the US (except of course for Kalaallit Nunaat/Greenland, which people is almost 100% indigenous)?

Rhetoric like this imputes way more power to the fascists than they realistically have, and turns them into unstoppable supervillains holding the whole world at their mercy. They are stoppable, and others have agency too.

31

Omega Centauri 01.30.26 at 9:44 pm

I think people are ascribing too much intentionality to what is happenning here. Trumps health and mental state is declining significantly. His decision making is similar to that of a three year old child. He tries stupid things, and then often is forced to conceed that it’s gonna end badly and draw bacl, The so called TACO effect -(Trump Always Backs Down).
He uses fear to control those around him. But whenever he percieves a new slight, he lashes out, often retrying old strategies, like scaring Europe into giving him Greenland. It’s not clear how much longer this can go on.

The Minnesota phenomena is recruiting more resistance. He is actively trying to appear to be softening his approach. Its more cosmetic than real of course.

He won’t cancel elections, but is clearly trying to disinfranchise identifiable opposition. No doubt he is trying hard to cheat on the midterms. That may or may not work. Its also looking more likely that more of his erstwhile allies will bolt.

32

Omega Centauri 01.30.26 at 9:55 pm

We are also rapidly burning up our future economic prospects. We had been maintaining high capacity is science/engineering/technology. A large portion of our highly skilled workforce is foreign born, or second generation immigrants. Few of these are white, and the brain drain is going to be hard to reverse. Also our currently world leading companies, which have largely succedded by recruiting talent and customers from around the world, are in my opinion going to lose a lot of both. Many would rather choose a second rate employer/supplier that resides in a nice country. He is certainly not pursuing the countries interests, but actively ruining its prospects.

33

Austin Loomis 01.30.26 at 10:16 pm

someone skrev:

they wont be satisfied with ethnically cleansing america. they’ll ethnically cleanse the rest of the world.

You could have called yourself “someone who read the summary of, and morbidly stumbled across excerpts from, The Turner Diaries“, but I guess that was too long to fit into the name space.

34

J-D 01.31.26 at 1:50 am

Birth date just means that housing was affordable for a 20-something born in 1950, but it isn’t for a 20-something born in 2000.

Strictly speaking, that’s not entirely accurate, and to the extent that it does indicate something real, neither birthdate nor age is a key variable. To use slightly technical language, what’s relevant here is neither a cohort effect nor an age effect but a period effect.

In the 1970s, housing was affordable for some twenty-somethings and some fifty-somethings but not for others, and now that much is still true; what’s changed is the proportions. Both the proportion of twenty-somethings for whom housing is affordable and the proportion of fifty-somethings for whom housing is affordable has declined sharply since the 1970s, and the cause of this effect is the same for both fifty-somethings and twenty-somethings. To talk about the subject as if people are being affected differently either because of birthdate or because of age clouds the issue.

Saying that the proportion of national income going to working people has fallen sharply is another way of putting it.

Yes, and a relevant one. The proportion of national income going to working people, regardless of how old they are or when they were born, has fallen.

Although I believe mostly you are right, there has been a long term increase in the wealth to income ratio, that in general will mean that houses’ prices will be higer relative to average income

That would be another example of something which is neither an age effect nor a cohort effect but a period effect.

35

ozajh 01.31.26 at 7:56 am

From the Original Post,

And throughout all this, he has retained the overwhelming support of Republicans

Some of this may be a little illusory because of conservatives who don’t support the current administration’s policies to the point where they no longer self-identify in surveys as Republicans. There are indications from polling data breakdowns that this is occurring, and even if the effect is small in percentage terms it might mean multiple millions.

The remaining people who do self-identify as Republicans are no doubt still fiercely loyal to the administration’s agenda.

36

Laban 01.31.26 at 10:20 am

LFC @27 – Chips Act is certainly doing something, I have grave doubts it’ll be sufficient. For example, TSMC are having a lot of trouble with their Texas plant. To some extent its not in their interest to make the US independent of Taiwanese chip supply.

The massive, historical change of the last 50 years, IMHO of much greater import than the fall of the Soviet Union, and certainly of more importance than who runs the US, is the rise of the Far Eastern economic system in general, and that of China in particular. After all, China was the #1 world economy for most of recorded history prior to the Industrial Revolution.

“the Chinese economic system is not capitalism, nor is it converging toward capitalism. China is operating an adaptation of the East Asian economic system launched in Japanese Manchuria in the 1930s, perfected in Japan proper in the 1950s and 1960s, and now widely copied throughout East Asia… features of the Chinese version of the East Asian economic model include a labyrinthine system of trade barriers; an artificially undervalued currency; an industrial policy focused on developing pillar industries and using export subsidies to give them competitive advantage; and pressure on foreign companies to transfer their production technologies. In some ways, this approach resembles capitalism–it makes extensive use of markets–but its fundamental logic is quite different. Whereas authoritarian political controls constitute a hindrance to the efficacy of capitalism, such controls are essential to the functioning of the East Asian system.

37

Tm 01.31.26 at 1:17 pm

„A new poll from the Pew Research Center out this week finds that 37% of Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, but only 27% say they support “most” or “all” of his policies.“ Among Republicans, that figure is 56%, down from 67% in February 2025. It’s still disturbing that 44% of Republicans call the coldblooded murder of Alex Pretti justified (but only 13% of Independents). These are the potential concentration camp guards. This minority will always be there.

Trump’s polls are terrible by any normal standard but they don’t matter to him (if he’s even aware of them). His ratings could be zero and he wouldn’t care, as long as the capitalist class keeps supporting him and the elites – including the media – continue treating him with deference and subservience (see 14).

https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-voted-trump-not-trumpism
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-coalition-abolish-ice-polls

38

J, not that one 01.31.26 at 3:13 pm

LFC, I’m not qualified to discuss the legal issues as you are, but I’m less confident the courts are helping in this term than they did in his first. I find it frustrating that there’s a big scandal for the worst of the first batch of cases, they eventually maybe get half remediated, but nothing really changes and the issue drops off the radar. People are still getting deported to overseas jails with inhumane conditions. People with brown skin are still being denied due process and even harassed.

Re. the OP, I’d like to believe John Q is right but it depends what effect Minneapolis has. My sense is the 1/3 of voters who are declared Republicans have a lot of practice in looking at brutality and deciding the victims deserve it, and it’s unclear in what cases the people giving ICE their orders will back off and when they’ll double down and force a confrontation.

39

JPL 02.01.26 at 1:16 am

Your list and identification of problems in your opening paragraphs strike me as superficial. You can’t rely on the level of understanding provided by what you might call the journalistic level of narrative. Among thoughtful and informed people there is a deeper level of understanding of all these, and other, problems, and practical responses based on this understanding are being taken. People are beginning to reassess the problems raised by the old system getting in a rut in these and all the other areas that have been revealed by the destruction of structure and precedent by the Trumpists. For example, the problem of immigration control and enforcement, including the role of due process. If you have an accurate analysis of Trumpist thinking (or maybe “scheming” would be a better word), effective specific responses become possible, legal or in the public discourse, including the one in the streets. Take each of these problems and get into an analysis. Another example is the problem area of world trade and the importance of standard procedures applying to all interactions. Defeatism and alarmism are not helpful. Hope is a necessary assumption for all concerned. What is being offered by the Trumpists is no way to live for anybody, and more and more people are seeing that.

40

BBA 02.01.26 at 2:30 am

I do not think there is any risk of Trump interfering with the midterm elections, because he only cares about himself. What does it matter to him if the GOP loses the House this November? That just means Mike Johnson is a loser.

Trump will of course do everything in his power to get himself on the ballot in 2028, in blatant violation of the Constitution, and then Vance will dutifully do the job he was hired for and pronounce Trump the winner regardless of how any of the votes go. That’s something I’m concerned about. But the midterms are safe.

41

CityCalmDown 02.01.26 at 8:35 am

Lee A. Arnold 01.30.26 at 1:15 pm asked

“If any of you knows of a book or a study which looks at MASS PROTEST, specifically as it evolves into part of the regular checks and balances in a governmental system, please list it here below.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contentious_politics

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2016/01/05/book-review-contentious-politics-by-charles-tilly-and-sidney-tarrow/

“(Charles Tilly and Sidney Tarrow ) explicitly place the political opportunity structure of a given regime at the centre of any thoughtful analysis or political predictions which social scientists wish to make. The concept of political opportunity structures is not a new one, having been initially coined by Tilly in From Mobilization to Revolution (1978, 55). It has, however, been developed and tested against many diverse case studies within this work, remaining a salient barometer for the effectiveness of social movements.

It is this structure, determined by the number of independent sites of power within the regime, along with the regime’s openness to new actors, the stability of existing political alignments, potential allies or challengers and the regime’s repression or facilitation of collective claim-makers, that is the most significant factor in informing us how successful contentious acts may be.

Secondly, the regimes within which claims are made, refuted and negotiated are granted the considerable weight of both scholars’ attention. Regime types, dealt with in Part Two of the book, ‘Regimes, Repertoires and Opportunities’, use the axes of capacity and democracy to categorise regime types. Capacity refers to the government’s ability to regulate the lives, actions and resources available to the population within its territory. Democracy is used to delineate the rights and protections which the citizenry enjoy in the face of elite power.

The primary lesson which any reader should take from this book is the following. When capacity and democracy intersect, they produce specific outcomes. For example, high-capacity democratic regimes, such as those of Australia, Japan and Norway, are a modern and unusual phenomena, where social movements are most prevalent, given the favourable conditions for their enacting. Spanning human history, the majority of regimes, the authors assert, are low-capacity undemocratic, within which contentions tend to result in civil wars.

In our quest for a non-violent world, where dissent can be aired and a form of agonistic democracy nourished, we therefore must work to build both the capacity and the democracy of states emerging from, or descending into, conflict.”

42

nonrenormalizable 02.01.26 at 2:27 pm

JohnQ, given this recent optimistic turn, will you update the flowchart from your previous post?

I’m guessing it’s the arrows around “Effective popular resistance” that need updating most.

43

steven t johnson 02.01.26 at 2:35 pm

Laban@24 Doing a little checking to update, you appear to be citing the current account deficit as if it were the full balance of payments. The capital accounts are relatively small, but the financial accounts also play a role. Here I have to confess that when foreign money purchases US financial instruments, it is potentially an obligation to send money abroad in the future (though the proceeds may simply purchase more US products.) But in the short term, such purchases work against the current account deficit. I suppose it may be I don’t understand how it really works. After all I have trouble understanding imputed rents as well.

Generally—I agree that Trump is not currently planning to simply cancel the elections. He’s not making enough jokes about it, not yet. But the assaults on the cities is about intimidation. Technically by the way this is actually civil war, where instead of a state attacking an institution of the federal government (Ft. Sumter) the federal government attacks the civilian population. That’s why the problem is not the poor training, why Trump can’t manage to deport people quietly the way Obama and Biden did. Again, the point is intimidation.

The plans for the Rapid Response National Guard force are the plans to do it more, in more places. I must point out that one reason for the supposed TACO in Minneapolis, insofar as it’s real rather than verbal, like peace in Gaza, a large fraction of ICE’s entire personnel was tied up. Conquering American cities is like conquering foreign countries, the infrastructure of force has decayed along with everything else and it’s just not very possible. Hence the plans for a massive military budget increase, war budgets are huge. In addition to open indiscriminate violence, discriminate repression is planned. Note the National Security Presidential Memorandum-7. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/countering-domestic-terrorism-and-organized-political-violence/

44

engels 02.01.26 at 2:59 pm

Both the proportion of twenty-somethings for whom housing is affordable and the proportion of fifty-somethings for whom housing is affordable has declined sharply since the 1970s, and the cause of this effect is the same for both fifty-somethings and twenty-somethings. To talk about the subject as if people are being affected differently either because of birthdate or because of age clouds the issue.

OK boomer

45

John Q 02.01.26 at 5:43 pm

ozajh @35 Sadly, no. The proportion of Americans identifying as Republican or “Republican-leaning independent” is around 42-45% and hasn’t changed much since Trump’s election.

OTOH, a new Pew survey shows Repubs less enthusiastic about Trump. An outlier so far, but Pew are usually reliable

46

Alex SL 02.01.26 at 9:43 pm

John Q,

I think we are mostly agreed on the intentions of the MAGA movement and the most likely scenario. So, just want to say that I think the problem with most analysis is that people think in a simple binary: dictatorship or democracy. On the one side, there are those who will absolutely refuse to accept that the USA have become a dictatorship if there are still elections in 2028, even if the democratic presidential candidate has been arrested without a warrant and voter rolls have been purged of most registered Democrats. On the other side, there are those who think that the USA was a functional democracy in 2016 despite rampant gerrymandering, even more rampant bribery (Citizens United decision and all that flows from it), systematic disenfranchisement of poor people for minor infractions such as not being able to pay a parking fine, and general inability of a population to make informed voting decisions because of being locked into cultish disinformation networks like Fox News and Facebook.

Point is, democracy versus dictatorship is not a binary switch but a gradient. It is possible that MAGA can move the USA noticeably towards the dictatorship end of the spectrum but not far enough that they won’t lose an election. My real fear is that, as mentioned above, that the Dem leadership is so Vichy that MAGA losing an election or two will not change the trajectory of the USA, that the country will be irreversibly dictatorial by, say, 2032, even if it isn’t today.

Two more aspects: lots of people conflate democracy and rule of law. We will see what the next elections look like, but currently at least, the USA are a democracy(-ish) without the rule of law, as police forces go around terrorising the population but a Democrat just won an election in Texas. There are also dictatorships that have the rule of law, and, of course, dictatorships without the rule of law, and democracies with the rule of law. The USA could land on any of the four squares in that plot, although realistically, landing one any of the “there are rules that you can rely on as a citizen to feel safe in your daily life” squares would require abolishing ICE and prosecuting all of its officers.

The final aspect is competence. MAGA may want to install a dictatorship, but they aren’t exactly geniuses. They are the equivalent of an angry and intoxicated driver who speeds his car into a group of people he dislikes. He is powerful and scary because of the power that the car bestows him, but if he is unlucky, he may end up on a tree or wall with oil and steam billowing out of his broken engine. The aforementioned social scientist pointed out today that, ironically, successful gerrymandering leads to very high losses in a wave election. If MAGA antagonises enough white people who are usually too lazy to vote, nothing short of cancelling elections will do. And again I return to the real problem being whether Dems will do anything with an election victory… so again we are only talking about whether the transition to full dictatorship will complete four years earlier or later.

47

LFC 02.02.26 at 1:14 am

I think the most persuasive analysis of the current U.S. political situation is that by political scientists S. Levitsky, L. Way, and D. Ziblatt. They have a jointly authored article in the Jan/Feb Foreign Affairs. The TL/DR version is that the U.S. has slid into, or been pushed into, ‘competitive authoritarianism’ but that the slide is reversible. I link below to a recent lecture by Levitsky.

J, not that one @37: The Supreme Court has been mostly a disaster, but the question of how the lower courts have performed is more complicated and I don’t really have the energy now to get into it. Anyway, there are people (not necessarily at CT but elsewhere) who are substantially more competent than I am to address those questions in detail. Have the courts fixed everything? No, obviously not. There are limits to what they can do, and the legal process is often slow, and forcing the admin to comply with court orders is not easy, esp. since there seems to be a reluctance on the part of some judges to issue contempt orders. But again, there are others better placed than I am to address this.

Here’s the lecture I referred to:

48

steven t johnson 02.03.26 at 3:46 am

In an interview with Dan Bongino, Trump spoke of nationalizing the elections. A centralized election process would be much more feasible to rig by falsifying vote counts, plus all the other ingenious ways to tip the scales.

There are at least three problems. One is that many people do not think majority rule defines democracy (even bourgeois democracy.) They see a minority veto (in practice, the propertied minority) as the essence of democracy. Another is that many people think it is more important to reject the real menace to society, mass action that threatens the fundamental status quo—-which they do not see Trump as threatening. And worst perhaps is the refusal to move beyond moralizing, to analyze questions of power. They don’t look at what Trump is doing on a structural level, they think about whether he lives up to (or down to?) Umberto Eco’s fascist check list and so on.

Sometimes I think Sinclair Lewis is now deemed to be a mediocrity who should never have won a Nobel Prize for Literature because he wrote It Can’t Happen Here.

49

ETB 02.03.26 at 1:03 pm

And worst perhaps is the refusal to move beyond moralizing, to analyze questions of power.

I would say this is a very important point. I don’t want to comment on a country I’ve never even visited, but while I wouldn’t completely agree with this I do think some of the general points were not without merit.

50

J, not that one 02.03.26 at 2:23 pm

I think all you have to know about ETB’s link is that it blames Obama and the Democrats for the financial crash that occurred under his predecessor. With friends like these, people who oppose Trump don’t exactly need enemies.

51

LFC 02.03.26 at 6:02 pm

As E.H. Carr wrote many years ago in The Twenty Years’ Crisis, vested interests, inequalities, and oppression (I would add: variable degrees of these things) are “inherent in all political institutions.”

Accordingly, unless one is doing a particular kind of normative political theory/philosophy, it makes little sense to juxtapose, in an evaluative sense, a political ideal against real institutions. You have to compare apples and apples. So you have to compare the institutions of a very imperfect, flawed democracy (with all its inequalities and oligarchic aspects) against the institutions and practices of authoritarianism, such as the weaponization of the state and its agencies to punish critics and protect allies (per S.L. lecture linked above). When you compare matters this way, the choice seems pretty clear.

steven t. johnson @48 asserts that “many people do not think majority rule defines democracy (even bourgeois democracy.) They see a minority veto (in practice, the propertied minority) as the essence of democracy.” He cites no evidence for the second point. On the first point, few people who have thought seriously about democracy, including what stj pejoratively calls “bourgeois democracy” (i.e., liberal democracy), have believed that majority rule, standing alone, is what defines it. Rather, you need a package of practices and rules that are all well known and that protect dissent, criticism of the government and its actions, as well as property rights to some degree. Of course, since steven t. johnson opposes “bourgeois democracy,” he has an incentive to distort, mischaracterize, and give a partial picture of it, which is par for the course for him, as anyone knows who has followed his comments here over the years.

52

steven t johnson 02.03.26 at 7:46 pm

Beating a dead horse can give you some glue? Relayed by Naked Capitalism is this
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/02/us-military-helping-dhs-build-massive-network-of-concentration-camps-navy-contract-reveals.html

The point of yet another comment is how the process is relentless and widespread. It’s not just a matter of supposedly ill-trained police in a horrible lapse of judgment. I believe they are doing what they were meant to do, not rogues. And that the policy is part of an overall plan, disguised by the thinnest of subterfuges. But it is likely that even the flimsiest veneer is convincing for the salesman trying to sell.

As a brief remark notes, there is a difference between a temporary program and an infrastructure. I suppose moderate people will deem labeling this system as “concentration camps” is unreasonable. Yet the concentration camp is a practical concept well over a century old. Although I believe use in the Boer War and the war against the Cuban rebellion (prior to the Spanish-American war) have priority, those of a moderate bent can red-bait such things by saying Lenin invented them.

53

steven t johnson 02.05.26 at 3:42 pm

Steven Bannon, who apparently aspires to be the Lenin of the counterrevolution, called for ICE to surround the polls. https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5723066-bannon-ice-presence-polls/ Also in the news is a spending package to make sure Trump’s government keeps working smoothly. The Democrats are not an oppositional party, insofar as they are an organized party at all.

For instance, Tim Walz, a vice presidential nominee thus by definition a party elite has signaled his opposition by declining to run for re-election. We should not forget this. One of Trump’s predecessors in illegality, Nixon, was opposed by significant fractions of the ruling class (something I admit I believe exists.) I believe that the American ruling class has shifted to the right, hence their parties, either support or do not strongly oppose Trumpery.

On a personal note, his statement “…few people who have thought seriously about democracy…have believed that majority rule, standing alone, is what defines it. Rather, you need a package of practices and rules that are all well known and that protect dissent, criticism of the government and its actions, as well as property rights to some degree…” does not contradict what I wrote.

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