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Daniel

The British American Project

by Daniel on November 7, 2004

I have a number of fantastic pieces of unsolicited advice for the Democrats, which I will no doubt be trotting out over the course of the week. Idea the first, however, is something that’s been on my mind for the last few years.

It’s time for the UK to face facts, agree that we have very little in common with Europe and a lot in common with the USA, and join the United States. Not only would this be good for Britain, the addition of 60 million voters, substantially all of whom are politically to the left of John Kerry, would presumably solve a few problems for you lot too.

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What happened in Clark County?

by Daniel on November 4, 2004

Just tying up a few loose ends as the US election fervour comes to an end … I bet nobody else was planning to audit this one so I might as well …

After all the brouhaha and kerfuffle over the Guardian‘s Clark County Project, it turns out that the citizens of Clark County voted exactly the same way as the rest of Ohio: 51% Bush, 48.5% Kerry. You might possibly argue that there was a slight “anti-Guardian effect” because last time round Clark was slightly more Democratic than the rest of Ohio (50-46 for Gore when the state was Bush by half a percentag point), but if you did, I think I’d say you were data-mining.

Update I promise I wrote that sentence before I saw someone had done it.

Flipping coins

by Daniel on November 3, 2004

It has struck me that it is probably more cost-effective for me to make this point once, in a front page post on CT than to try to add it to every single comments thread in the Democrat blogosphere. OK, lads, it hurts to lose. But can I ask a couple of questions which seem to be unrelated to the topic of “whither the Democrats”, but which in fact are.

1. If a coin has a bias such that it comes up heads 52% of the time, how many flips of the coin would you need to make to be reasonably confident that it was not a fair coin? A) 1 B) 2 or C) a lot more.

2. If you flip a coin four times and it comes up heads, heads, tails, tails, then does it make even the slightest bit of sense at all to spend the next month thinking about what major structural changes need to be made to the coin if it is ever to come up heads again?

MASSIVE VOTING MACHINE FRAUD!!!!

by Daniel on November 3, 2004

Academics from Harvard University have conducted statistical tests on the output of voting machines and concluded that there is less than a 1% chance that their results could have been generated in any way other than massive voting fraud.

Of course, we shouldn’t get too excited about this right now. For one thing, their work has been called into question. And for another thing, they were talking about the Venezuelan referendum. But I’m certainly not above using cheap shock tactics to draw attention to a really interesting piece of statistical argumentation.

It’s one of those cases where there are points on both sides, and both sides have, extraordinarily, managed to treat each other with respect and not throw around “Devastating Critiques” of each other. I think that Mark Weisbrot has the best of it; his analysis of the audited “clean” sample shows the same result as the allegedly “dirty” sample. The only way that one could have got that result fraudulently would rely on a level of compromise of the Carter Centre’s random selection apparatus that seems very implausible.

But Rigobon and Hausman are correct to say that it is troubling, to say the least, that the audit sample shows a very different relationship between polling station size and the “Si” vote; I’ve been thinking about it off and on for a month and I can’t come up with any reason why that might be. If you’ve got some spare time on your hands (and if you’re a Democrat, you do), both papers are worth a read, if only to clear your palate after the crap that’s been thrown around at the Lancet study (btw, on that subject, I will post more, but in the meantime, nice one, Chris Lightfoot).

(PS: I misspell Rigobon’s name out of ignorance of how to create accents in HTML rather than any other kind)

A day late and about a million dollars short

by Daniel on November 2, 2004

Thank you from the bottom of my heart to the traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, who, on the last day of the campaign, have bid Kerry up to 51% chance of winning. Thus ensuring that, whoever wins, I will have ample material to spend the next four years teasing James Surowiecki about the “Wisdom of Panicky Crowds”.

(the really interesting thing is that the single most probable IEM outcome is still Bush to win with less than 52% of the popular vote. The big move of the bids has been from Bush>52 to Kerry >52!)

Talking rubbish about epidemiology

by Daniel on November 1, 2004

As Chris said, with respect to the Lancet study on excess Iraqi deaths, “I can predict with certainty that there will be numerous posts on weblogs supporting the war attacking the study”. Score several Cassandra points for Chris, they weren’t slow in coming. You can have the know-nothing rightwing flack variety or the handwringing liberal variety. And to be honest, the standard of critique is enough to make you weep.

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October surprise

by Daniel on October 29, 2004

About two hours after the Osama video hit the newswires, and the good old Iowa Electronic Markets have marked down the two DEM04 contracts from about 48% to 44%. Ouch.

By the way, there might be a small prize for the first CT reader to find an online use of the “see, Kerry agrees with Bin Laden” talking point that is no doubt being lined up on the Mighty Wurlitzer …

The Leg question

by Daniel on October 26, 2004

Apparently, we are bombing the town of Fallujah. Apparently, we are doing this because the residents refuse to co-operate with our wishes by not “handing over” the notorious terrorist Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi. Apparently, we will continue to bomb them until they do so.

I am, as a result haunted by a nightmare in which I am flying in a helicopter gunship above the town of Fallujah, looking down on the wrecked buildings and bodies below. I find myself having a conversation, through a megaphone, with one of the residents:

Me: Just hand over Zarqawi and we’ll let you live!
Resident: OK! OK! We’re having a bit of trouble finding him!
Me: A likely story! Bomb them again, Lurch!
Resident: Could you just give us a hand? Like maybe tell us where in Fallujah he’s staying?
Me: I don’t know. But we have excellent intelligence that tells us that you’re harbouring him! Bomb that coffee shop, Lurch, it looks like an ammo dump!
Resident: Well, what does he look like?
Me: Everyone knows what Zarqawi looks like! You’re just playing for time! Bomb him again!
Resident: Well, how many legs does he have? Give us something to work with here!

And at that point I wake up, screaming.

It strikes me that if your level of information about someone is not sufficient to answer the question “how many legs does he have?”, it would be a good idea to not express any strong opinions on the subject of that person. It also strikes me that if we’re reforming the intelligence process, then we might profitably include a question about “number of legs” on any checklist we propose to use to sift good intelligence from bad.

Raining cats and dogs …

by Daniel on October 24, 2004

One of the least attractive features of Steven Landsburg’s column in Slate was always his habit of assuming that anyone who disagreed with him obviously did so out of ignorance, and indeed that appears to be his response to my post on the subject of quantum game theory and information. As a matter of fact, I do understand a bit (just a bit) about quantum probability and I understand a bit more after mugging up on the relevant chapter of David Williams excellent book on probability. Landsburg’s point appears to be that since no information is exchanged, there is no communication, but this won’t do. “Information” in the physical sense is not exchanged, but “quantum information” (not the same thing, but neither something completely different) is, and that is enough to turn it into a communication game. Let me elucidate with yet another variation on the cats/dogs game.

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Econophysicobabble

by Daniel on October 22, 2004

Oh goody, I’ve been waiting for Pile On Stephen Landsburg Week. That column of his in Slate has been winding me up for years.

As my contribution, check out this guest contribution to Marginal Revolution, where half-understood physics meets half-understood economics, with predictable results.

The guts of the post are as follows:

Let’s play a coordination game: You and I are each asked a single question, either “Do you like cats?” or “Do you like dogs?”. Our questions are determined by independent coin flips. We both win if our answers differ, unless we’re both asked about dogs, in which case we both win if our answers match.

Here’s a pretty good strategy we could agree on in advance: We’ll contrive to always differ. Whatever we’re asked, I’ll say yes and you say no. That way we win 3/4 of the time.

Can we do any better? No, if we live in a world governed by classical physics. Yes, if we live in the world we actually inhabit—the world of quantum mechanics.

I think I know a way to do better, using only classical physics.

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How do shares get valued, anyway?

by Daniel on October 9, 2004

I’m trying to build up a small archive of articles that explain important things about financial markets in clear language to an educated liberal audience. This article in the Guardian by Edmond Warner is worth ten minutes of your time.

Telling stories with pictures

by Daniel on October 5, 2004

Deja vu.

All over again?

Over at Marginal Revolution, they’re quoting Jagdish Bhagwati:

“Once, Mrs Joan Robinson, my radical teacher at Cambridge University, and Professor Gus Ranis of Yale University, a ‘neo-liberal’ economist, were observed agreeing with each other that Korea had been a great success.
The paradox was resolved when it turned out that Mrs Robinson was talking about North Korea and Professor Ranis about South Korea!

(emphasis added)

Although “Mrs Joan Robinson” was indeed so called in 1956 (when she was teaching Bhagwati), by 1965, she was going by the name of “Professor Joan Robinson”. Gustav Ranis was made a full professor in 1964, according to his CV. So either this conversation took place in the second half of 1964 (or early in 1965), or Bhagwati is making a mistake that is, frankly, all too common when people discuss female academics. Val Dusek points out that Margaret Mead was a frequent victim of this accidental rudeness too.

Update. A number of our commenters appear to be making variants of the same joke about Joan Robinson being stupid for calling North Korea a success. Ahem.

“Like all the postwar Communist states, the DPRK undertook massive state investment in heavy industry, state infrastructure and military strength, neglecting the production of consumer goods. By paying the collectivized peasants low state-controlled prices for their product, and using the surplus thus extracted to pay for industrial development, the state carried out a series of three-year plans, which brought industry’s share of the economy from 47% in 1946 to 70% in 1959, depite the intervening devastation of the Korean War. There were huge increases in electricity production, steel production and machine building. The large output of tractors and other agricultural machinery achieved a great increase in agricultural productivity.

As a result of these revolutionary changes, there is no doubt that the population was better fed and, at least in urban areas, better housed than they had been before the war, and also better than were most people in the South in this period. Even hostile observers agree that standards of living rose rapidly in the DPRK in the later 1950s and into the 1960s, certainly more rapidly than in the South, where there had been no land reform and little industrial development. There was, however, a chronic shortage of consumer goods, and the urban population lived under a system of extreme labor discipline and constant demands for greater productivity.

In other words, between the Korean War and the oil crisis of the 1970s, the North Korean economy was not doing at all badly and it was entirely arguable that it was outperforming South Korea. (Professor) Joan Robinson retired in the early 1970s. Btw, Bhagwati explicitly did not make this mistake; his whole point in the original anecdote was to point out that subsequent events had shown that South Korean state-organised export promoting capitalism was a better system than North Korean state socialism.

Update update It’s just struck me that since JR was the wife of Professor Sir Austin Robinson, there’s probably a case to be made that at the very least, Bhagwati ought to have called her “Lady Joan Robinson”.

What do IEM prices actually mean?

by Daniel on September 23, 2004

Via the Marginal Revolution lads, here’s a working paper by Charles Manski, an economist at Northwestern who’s interested in a question that we’ve often returned to at CT; what are the prices in markets like the Iowa Electronic Markets (***MARKET UPDATE*** Kerry still “dying on arse”) actually measuring? Can we really take a market price of 0.70 and unproblematically read off it that “the market thinks there is a 70% chance”?

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Blame it on Fatty

by Daniel on September 22, 2004

Arnold Kling has a new book out, with the title What’s a nice guy like me doing in a flack shop like this? “Learning Economics”. If what you want is an introduction to economics from a somewhat aggressively libertarian perspective, I daresay it will be pretty good; in my experience, Arnold has almost never been intellectually dishonest himself (which further raises the question, why’s he providing window dressing to TCS?).

However, in plugging his book, Arnold repeats a mistake I’ve corrected him on a couple of times, so let battle commence. Specifically, he claims that

“If you think that paying for your own health care is too expensive, I argue that it is mental illness to believe that paying for each other’s health care is affordable.”

I think that this is based on a pretty egregious confusion between a dull statement about health care, about which this statement is trivially true, and health insurance, about which it is probably false. Read on …

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