Social Disasters II

by Kieran Healy on September 1, 2005

According to AP, this photo shows a man covering the body of a man who died — apparently in a chair — on Thursday outside the convention center in New Orleans. The baby in his arms looks to be about three or four months old. I wonder whether she has any milk to drink.

Plenty of people are “saying”:http://atrios.blogspot.com/2005_08_28_atrios_archive.html#112559511188392756 “this”:http://examinedlife.typepad.com/johnbelle/2005/09/this_is_not_goo.html “already”:http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007022.php, but the situation in New Orleans and the surrounding areas is just unbelievable, and the official response thus far is pretty appalling. The United States is the most powerful country on the face of the earth. Over the past few years in particular, a lot of money and thought was supposed to have been devoted to planning for rapid response to large-scale urban disasters in the wake of 9/11. While authorities in Louisiana and New Orleans are not as powerful as the Feds, they have known for years that a disaster of this kind was likely and were told in detail what it would do to their city. And yet. The “reports of what’s happening”:http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/01/katrina.impact/index.html convey little except how “poorly-prepared”:http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/12528233.htm, “ill-coordinated”:http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-5248531,00.html and “slow-moving”:http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/09/impeach_george_.html the disaster response is. As “Mark Kleiman”:http://WWW.markarkleiman.com/archives/microeconomics_and_policy_analysis_/2005/08/failing_to_plan_is_planning_to_fail.php comments, failing to plan is planning to fail. Kevin Drum provides “a demoralizing chronology”:http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007023.php explaining why FEMA is being run by people with “no experience”:http://www.warandpiece.com/blogdirs/002458.html in disaster management.

Meanwhile, apparently the secretary of state has been “shoe-shopping on 5th avenue”:http://www.gawker.com/news/condoleezza-rice/index.php#breaking-condi-rice-spends-salary-on-shoes-123467.

{ 130 comments }

1

Steve LaBonne 09.01.05 at 1:46 pm

Of the many bad things, the worst may have come even before the storm struck- the fact that no provision seems to have been made to evacuate the poor and elderly who had no way to leave on their own. This is connected to the culpable lateness of the evacuation order. I think the US Attorney should eventually look into the possibility of indictments of the “responsible” officials.

2

Thomas 09.01.05 at 1:48 pm

Yes, and Kieran’s been at home, masturbating in front of his computer screen. What the fuck does Condi Rice have to do with a hurricane in Lousiana? About what Kieran does. But god forbid someone call Kieran on his b.s.

As it happens, we’re stuck living in a world of over-educated idiots, convinced that other bright and capable people, working hard at their appointed tasks, aren’t quite up to the level they’d be performing at, if only someone granted them the opportunity. That’s really the point of Kieran’s post–and all the rest of the similar posts: I’m smart, I work hard, so I’m sure if I’d been in charge, this wouldn’t have happened. The arrogance and absurdity is, or should be, an opportunity for an intersting sociological examination, if one were interested.

3

Steve LaBonne 09.01.05 at 1:53 pm

I’m sure you’re the expert on arrogance and absurdity, Thomas. Meanwhile, I happen to work in a law-enforcement-related field and I’ve been exposed to a thing or two about disaster planning. I know a cluster*** when I see one.

4

david 09.01.05 at 1:57 pm

Thomas, Scott Mclellan was on the tv hours ago pointing out the role that State has in coordinating relief aid from other countries, say, like Canada, which has been having trouble sending aid. Do you know what position Rice holds in this administration?

5

alkali 09.01.05 at 2:05 pm

thomas writes:

That’s really the point of Kieran’s post—and all the rest of the similar posts: I’m smart, I work hard, so I’m sure if I’d been in charge, this wouldn’t have happened.

Not necessarily. I freely admit that I’m a pinhead, but I would not have screwed things up this badly. Hence, I can only conclude that even bigger pinheads than me are running this particular cluster****.

6

abb1 09.01.05 at 2:07 pm

She can’t go flog ’em damned Canadians barefoot, though; woman needs a pair of shoes, ain’t she?

7

jet 09.01.05 at 2:13 pm

I’m with Kieran on this one. Listening to the police band is just one screw up after another. Like the Colonel who got on the radio screaming for someone from FEMA because his FEMA depot was being shut down (because of danger from looters). That one example shows two problems. Why would FEMA close down a depot that the military really wanted open, and why was the depot unprotected from looters? Never mind the 11:00 police/military conference call that never happened because the phone system screwed up. Or the cops surrounded by looters at a hospital that didn’t even get their distress call out for 30 minutes, and then it took another 30 minutes before special forces were sent out.

And if Condi is out screwing off instead of looking concerned about the disaster, then that is bad. But she is the Secretary of STATE. You know, the secretary that deals with matters concerning OTHER countries. There is a different secretary for domestic isues.

8

jet 09.01.05 at 2:20 pm

Holy crap. The pilot of a ferry boat evacuating people was just called in shot.

9

jayann 09.01.05 at 2:21 pm

Tulane closed on the 27th, given Katrina’s advent, and evacuated its on-site students to Jackson then. That is of course easier than properly evacuating a whole city, still, it’s obvious a lot more could have been done to help the poorer people get out. (And yes, it seems to be a real mess, and pretty hellish, there now.)

10

P ONeill 09.01.05 at 2:25 pm

It’s the job of the government to coordinate. I heard on the radio this morning that the Red Cross wants to do relief operations well outside New Orleans, because they think it’s too difficult and unhealthy for everyone to try and deliver relief in a cesspool. But the military relief operations are focused on dropping aid to people in the city — which will look good in a clip on Fox News.

And here’s another question for the CT ethicists — is there moral hazard in giving charitable contributions for this, when Bush will use the freed up government resources for more tax cuts?

11

jet 09.01.05 at 2:38 pm

You guys will love this. After the ferry boat shooting was called in, the Dept. of Homeland security guy got on and said to stop reporting “criminal activity” to them as they can do nothing about it. He said to contact “local law enforcement”.

12

fifi 09.01.05 at 2:48 pm

“What the fuck does Condi Rice have to do with a hurricane in Lousiana?”

That’s like asking why “let them eat cake” the wrong thing to say during French Revolution.

13

Dan Simon 09.01.05 at 2:56 pm

A friend writes:

“Chris has blogged thoughtfully about the complex sociological causes of this ‘natural disaster’. And the truth is that every one of us….is culpable, in both small and big ways. But some in the blogosphere have used [this] tragedy to score cheap and nasty political points and trot out the usual old national tropes. As in everything else, I suppose, the vindication of a mean-minded idea is something that can only be felt at a distance.”

14

Andrew 09.01.05 at 2:59 pm

It really is heartbreaking, but what i cna do beyond sending money?

15

Steve LaBonne 09.01.05 at 3:09 pm

Dan, you might want to check out what party most of the relevant NO and LA elected officials belong to. Kieran’s post, for sure, cannot be tarred with this (tired old conservative) brush since he explicitly focused on them. (And of course, we all know that only conservatives have been issued a Poetic License that authorizes them to connect politics with unfortunate events in which politicians have a role. Liberals need not apply.)

16

MQ 09.01.05 at 3:11 pm

Other nations are offering assistance, the State Department coordinates and makes the connections necessary to get that assistance to site. Condi Rice is Secretary of State.

17

soubzriquet 09.01.05 at 3:11 pm

Andrew: Well, beyond sending money or whatever short-term aid is appropriate, I would think there is one obvious thing you can do. Once the immediate disaster is over, it is time to put pressure on politicians at every level: You want to be sure a cluster**** like this won’t ever happen in your neck of the woods, no? Or anywhere else. There are obviously some pretty hard questions to be answered at city, state, and federal levels about disaster response and planning. At the very least. Politicians being what they are, these questions will not be answered without pressure, and it will take a lot more to actually get action on whatever is determined to be the significant sources of error.

18

roger 09.01.05 at 3:14 pm

I don’t see where Condi’s shoebuying fits in myself. More disturbing is the way in which the big three channels and Fox are broadcasting as though everything were normal. I don’t get CNN or cable — in fact, I just got a tv after about twenty years of not having one just to look at videos. But I did see, at various friends houses, the coverage of 9/11. This is, frankly, a much bigger disaster, and it is being fit in between judge judy and comedy shows. I can’t, frankly, believe it. I lived in New Orleans for five years, and have a certain sense of what the city was like — and I don’t think it is coming back. If we were living in Rome, I guess abc, nbc and fox would report on Pompeii in fifteen minute segments, and then go back to GLADIATORS, episode 50. I’m pretty sure if the pictures were mostly of white, middle class people, this would merit 9/11 coverage.

19

alkali 09.01.05 at 3:16 pm

soubzriquet writes:

Once the immediate disaster is over, it is time to put pressure on politicians at every level: You want to be sure a cluster**** like this won’t ever happen in your neck of the woods, no?

Unless you have some reason to think that your elected representatives in particular are occupied with Katrina-related matters, call today.

20

Ben P 09.01.05 at 3:19 pm

Condi’s shoe buying fits in because her boss obstensibly called for a full mobilization of the national government to deal with the disaster. OK, she’s S of S. So, she could be working to coordinate internatinal relief assistance with the governments of, say, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, etc..

At the very least, its a very ugly contrast. Literally thousands of people are dying, in good measure because of a shambolic, inept government relief effort, and Condi – one of the highest ranking officials in the gov’t – is out going to broadway shows and buying expensive shoes.

Ben P

21

abb1 09.01.05 at 3:47 pm

Please. Since 9/11 2001, the recommended MO in a case of a national emergency is to go shopping. There’s been no memo issued retracting this directive yet.

22

steve 09.01.05 at 4:02 pm

Curious…
Noone is disturbed by the fact that the actors on broadway performed their shows (rather than what…stand around and look solemn?). Noone is disturbed by the fact that everyone but Condi who went to the shows were there (rather than what…look solemn?). But it is disturbing that Condi attend the show (rather than standing around and looking solemn), along with thousands of other theatre-goers, performers, producers, directors, and so on….
A complete non-issue. We all know it-even Kieran.

Steve

23

Kieran Healy 09.01.05 at 4:08 pm

Yes, and Kieran’s been at home, masturbating in front of his computer screen.

Let’s make a deal, Steve: in the event that I’m appointed as the goddamn Secretary of State for the United States, I promise to knock off the self-abuse. I’m sure I’d have plenty else to occupy my time.

Noone is disturbed by the fact that the actors on broadway performed their shows

I’m sure the actors would offer you a similar deal. Meanwhile, I have donated money to charity, because for some reason I feel I am not one of the five or six most powerful people in the United States.

24

soubzriquet 09.01.05 at 4:09 pm

Steve: not nearly as curious as the number of people who have jumped on the Condi thread but somehow stayed mum on the substance of Kierans post….

25

Crystal 09.01.05 at 4:11 pm

Call me cynical, but if the people left stranded in New Orleans had been white and middle-class, I think the rescue response would have been a lot quicker and better coordinated. But almost everyone awaiting rescue is poor and black (and has no political clout). So the Bush cabal and FEMA drag their feet, and corpses are left to rot in the open air.

Incidentally, someone on the Salon.com boards reported that Allan Toussaint boarded a bus and is on his way to Houston, and Irma Thomas was in Austin when Katrina hit. Fats Domino is still missing.

26

peter 09.01.05 at 4:28 pm

Roger @ 18:
People made the same sort of comments about the coverage of the tsunami and I am just as dumbfounded now as then. I’ve been working from home this week and have the left the TV on pretty much non-stop to monitor events. This has the story, even on Fox. Most of the residual time yesterday was taken up by the stampede in Baghdad. Are people actually checking US media before they offer these criticisms? In the immediate aftermath of the tsunami people wrote in to CT decrying Fox’s lack of coverage, for instance, despite the fact that it was patently obvious to anyone actually watching from the early afternoon of the tsunami onward that this was this main, dominant story for Fox and all of the other big cable news channels. So to this time, apparently.

27

peter 09.01.05 at 4:29 pm

Sorry, I should have written “This has been the story”.

28

Ben P 09.01.05 at 5:26 pm

Hey, Steve –

If those other broadway actors were high ranking officials in the Bush adminstration, than I would expect them to be involved in the relief effort too.

Indeed, Condi isn’t just “high ranking”: she’s one of the 4 or 5 important government officials in the country and a close confidant of Bush. So, thus, yes, Condi on vacation while the US Gulf Coast is destroyed and a relief effort struggles to meet these needs adequately, I think her absence is very relevant.

Ben P

29

Charlie B. 09.01.05 at 5:33 pm

I checked in after watching C4 news tonight to see what Crookedtimber comment was like. Not as bad as I’d expected – a weak reflection of the arrogance of the British TV journalists who pronounce judgement on “politicians” they could not name and a system they don’t understand (their comments on the command structure of the National Guard and Federal powers are simply moronic). All I can say is that Thomas hit the nail as squarely on the head as anyone could: “we’re stuck living in a world of over-educated idiots, convinced that other bright and capable people, working hard at their appointed tasks, aren’t quite up to the level they’d be performing at, if only someone granted them the opportunity.” But perhaps, apart from counselling doing things differently “next time” what, precisely, I wonder, should be done differently now, this minute, and by whom.

30

bob mcmanus 09.01.05 at 5:38 pm

“what, precisely, I wonder, should be done differently now, this minute, and by whom.”

Rehnquist should administer the Oath of Office to Dennis Hastert.

31

Charlie B. 09.01.05 at 5:39 pm

Oh and god spare me all the Condi, Broadway and similar rubbish. It’s all just bullshit. If I had the energy I’d say something about it being an insult to people who have lost everything to use them (just like the tsunami victims) to flagellate your favourite hate figures. Grow up.

32

Charlie B. 09.01.05 at 5:42 pm

“Rehnquist should administer the Oath of Office to Dennis Hastert.” There we go. As good a measure of the extent of genuine concern for human suffering as you could want. Practical, sensible, useful. Give the man a medal.

33

dave heasman 09.01.05 at 5:56 pm

Fats Domino, and family, made it safely to the SuperDome.

34

fifi 09.01.05 at 6:00 pm

Someone give Charlie a paper bag.

35

Robin Green 09.01.05 at 6:04 pm

If I had the energy I’d say something about it being an insult to people who have lost everything to use them (just like the tsunami victims) to flagellate your favourite hate figures.

Thank you for reminding us that only conservatives are allowed to flagellate their favourite hate figures (e.g. “over-educated idiots”) in the aftermath of a national disaster!

36

Charlie B. 09.01.05 at 6:09 pm

Which are all great, constructive, helpful ideas. I just wondered if there was anything at all behind the righteous indignation and indictments. So far it would appear not.

37

Kip Manley 09.01.05 at 6:12 pm

To hear them tell it, this is the best America can do; it’s all a decent person can expect from our poor, beleaguered government, whatever the level:

The first busload of New Orleans refugees to reach the Reliant Astrodome overnight was a group of people who commandeered a school bus in the city ravaged by Hurricane Katrina and drove to Houston looking for shelter.

Jabbar Gibson, 20, said police in New Orleans told him and others to take the school bus and try to get out of the flooded city.

Gibson drove the bus from the flooded Crescent City, picking up stranded people, some of them infants, along the way. Some of those on board had been in the Superdome, among those who were supposed to be evacuated to Houston on more than 400 buses Wednesday and today. They couldn’t wait.

The group of mostly teenagers and young adults pooled what little money they had to buy diapers for the babies and fuel for the bus.

After arriving at the Astrodome at about 10:30 p.m., however, they initially were refused entry by Reliant officials who said the aging landmark was reserved for the 23,000 people being evacuated from the Louisiana Superdome.

“Now, we don’t have nowhere to go,” Gibson said. “We heard the Astrodome was open for people from New Orleans. We ain’t ate right, we ain’t slept right. They don’t want to give us no help. They don’t want to let us in.”

Milling about the Reliant entrance, Sheila Nathan, 38, told her teary-eyed toddler that she was too tired to hold him.

“I’m trying to make it a fairy tale so they won’t panic,” said Nathan, who had four grandchildren in tow. “I have to be strong for them.”

After about 20 minutes of confusion and consternation, Red Cross officials announced that the group of about 50 to 70 evacuees would be allowed into the Astrodome.

Call me a naive fool, but I expect better service from the powers that be, no matter what party they’re from.

Still, that sort of defeatist rhetoric is better than what’s next, I suppose. Which we’re already starting to hear, here and there, but I expect it’ll get louder as the bodies pile higher: Why should any of us lift a finger to help those ungrateful bastards who recklessly chose to stay behind in a city we all knew would be washed away?

I’d spit if I could figure out how to upload it.

38

Jake 09.01.05 at 6:12 pm

Perhaps a one-way ticket to Louisiana would suit Charlie better.

39

Ben P 09.01.05 at 6:19 pm

Charlie, i pity you.

40

Steve LaBonne 09.01.05 at 6:53 pm

By the way, as if anybody who’s been paying attention doubted it, news stories are now appearing that cite documents which demonstrate the fact that Bush administration budget cuts delayed planned and much-needed work on the NO levee ssytem.

41

roger 09.01.05 at 7:00 pm

Peter, I’m in Austin, and the only channel I can get is fox. All I’ve seen so far is what you can usually see on Fox. Maybe my affiliate is dumb.

Onto Condi — forget Condi. The worst thing done by any official so far was Chertoff’s interview on NPR, when he actually denied reports about the 2,000 people in the Civic Center. He was so concentrated on his happy points — the evacuation from the Superdome — that he didn’t even listen to the reporter’s account of conditions in the Civic Center. He said, weirdly, that nobody had reported to him about that situation — well, gee, there was a reporter he could talk to if he wanted to.

It isn’t just the stupidity of this — it is the message. The message is: we will deal with the people at the transfer points in our own sweet time. This is precisely the wrong message. Does he actually want to encourage people to fire on the helicopters and the busses? Because that callousness says, to me, we will leave you here to die. And that is a big problem at the moment in NOLA. The breakdown of communications in a city with disparate, weary groups, who have learned for years to distrust the government and see themselves neglected to an astonishing degree, is going to lead to even more chaos. Chertoff’s message should have been: tell me about that situation and I will make sure safety officers, at least, in force, are on the scene in the next three hours. My god, is that difficult? Don’t tell people who haven’t eaten for three days that sometime this weekend you are going to pick them up.

The rescue people need to communicate big time with the city, whether by erecting big screens downtown, powered by generator, on which they can make announcement or in some other central way. And they need well known faces, like Clintons, not peanut headed bureaucrats, like Chernoff, putting out the message. It is not enough to say come to the transfer point when the rumor is you are attacked or die there.

42

Harry B 09.01.05 at 7:02 pm

Charlie B — this disaster has been long predicted, and the poor quality of the response is a direct reflecton of political decisions. As is usually the case (the Ethopian famine was not a natural disaster). This is precisely the time to point that out otherwise it just happens over and over again. (Outside LA this is going to be a non-story within weeks). Ok, it probably happens again and again anyway. If it is any consolation, I don’t believe anything much would be different if Kerry were President, and I am confident that my colleagues would be excoriating him and his with just as much fervour as the current shower. We only look like we are down on Republicans, Bush, et. al. because they are the ones in power….

43

Thomas 09.01.05 at 7:12 pm

While we’re talking about the 4 or 5 most powerful people in the US, where’s Alan Greenspan? Hey, Alan! We could use a bit of help over here, with getting people out of NO. Think you could pitch in? I mean, really, Alan, we appreciate the work you’ve done, but this is no time to slack off. Grab this and pull!

No, don’t pull your dick! Dammit Alan, pull this rope!

That bit of sophisticated political commentary brought to you by CrookedTimber.

Steve, thanks for the update on that. No one here has access to that fancy internet, where all the news stories are. Now, tell us, would the planned and much-needed work you’re talking about have made any difference in this tragedy? Don’t bother answering–we all know that you’re not interested in the truth of the matter (the expenditures wouldn’t have made a difference; it would have cost more than $5 billion to protect NO from a category 5 storm, and no one has ever proposed spending that amount, much less cut the funding in a way that would significantly affect the effort), but you are interested in scoring points. I don’t know what’s sadder: your fervent interest in political point-scoring at a time of tragedy, or your inability to actually score.

44

Harry B 09.01.05 at 7:19 pm

thomas: you, of course, haven’t tried to score any political points? Where’s dsquared when we need him?

45

Dan Simon 09.01.05 at 7:20 pm

If it is any consolation, I don’t believe anything much would be different if Kerry were President, and I am confident that my colleagues would be excoriating him and his with just as much fervour as the current shower.

I always suspected that nobody reads my comments….

(Except you, Steve Labonne–thanks. I read Kieran’s posting as more directly critical of the federal government, but I’ll grant that it’s open to interpretation.)

46

peter 09.01.05 at 7:24 pm

Roger,
All I can say is what I have seen. I don’t understand what else the networks are to do. I asked family in upstate NY about this and they have had the same basic reaction.

There is a lot of emotion in this thread, and that is understandable. A real and enormous tragedy has happened here. People are really upset and the recriminations are spreading. But that is useless at this point. The only real question we can ask is: what are we going to do now (both in the short and long run)? None of us have any real power, but a civilized discussion of this would represent the only really useful contribution we can make (outside of heeding the widespread and important calls for donations). Let us not let this degenerate into the shameful situation that prevailed in comments on CT in the aftermath of the tsunami (when the worst sort of pontificating emanated from both sides of the political spectrum).

As an aside, I saw something on CBS news tonight that serves as the perfect symbol for all of this. As people boarded the buses for Houston, a little dog was left behind. The owner had to leave his or her undoubtedly beloved companion of 9 years behind. That dog, an innocent in all of this without any comprehension of what is happening, is, in all of its hopeless bewilderment and vulnerable domestication, probably about to see its last night on earth. Thousands of people are dead, and this in the end an animal that we are talking about, but I think that nonetheless its fate is the perfect symbol for this awful savagery.

47

Kip Manley 09.01.05 at 7:24 pm

Ten point penalty to “Thomas” for moving the goalposts. The topic under discussion is not “Could we have prevented New Orleans from being damaged by a Category Five hurricane?” The topic under discussion is “Why is the response to this disaster such a clusterfuck?” —Dismissing the expenditures presumed necessary to protect New Orleans as exorbitant does nothing to further this debate: the various mitigation plans proposed and shot down by the current administration are offered as evidence that we knew it would be bad. —Since we all knew it would be bad, why, then, is the response to this disaster such a clusterfuck? The current administration slashed or stopped cold the various disaster-mitigation plans proposed for this particular contingency; what was the plan they chose to replace them? They did have some sort of plan in place for this eventuality, didn’t they?

Once more, look at your argument: America could do no better than this. Jesus H. Christ on a crutch, if that doesn’t terrify and infuriate you, you’re not paying any attention at all.

48

Harry B 09.01.05 at 7:34 pm

Dan — I do read your comments, though I rarely follow up links (from anyone, I’m lazy, sorry). So I’ve gone back and read the comment again (and followed the links)…. but you are being too obscure (this time, not usually, or at least too obscure for me)!!

49

gzombie 09.01.05 at 7:44 pm

Ixnay on the eedingfay of the ollstray.

Go here, instead.

50

Thomas 09.01.05 at 7:49 pm

Jesus, Kip, did you look at Kobe in ’95 and think, That’s all the better Japan can do? Certainly not a first rate response.

Don’t answer that–you’re the kind of guy who probably did. Which, as I said above, is the sort of thing that someone might find interesting, sociologically.

(I mean to say, to avoid any doubt, that you’re an asshole.)

And that has nothing to do with partisan politics.

51

Thomas 09.01.05 at 8:05 pm

BTW, Kieran, I’m seeing the advantages of your approach. Fact is, I’m a pretty smart guy–I’m a lawyer, so just ask me!–and I work pretty hard. I figure once I’m done working out what went wrong with FEMA I’ll move on to writing sociological monographs. Is your department hiring?

52

Bill Gardner 09.01.05 at 8:19 pm

Check out Josh Trevino’s post eviscrerating Bush’s performance over at Redstate.org. There is a consensus forming.

53

Dan Simon 09.01.05 at 8:24 pm

Harry, you suggested that your colleagues would be just as scathing in their criticism of a government with which they were more politically in sync. In response, I pointed to an analogous “natural disaster”–the Parisian heatwave of 2003–in which your colleagues were quite gentle towards the national government that failed to prepare for it, saving all their wrath for those attempting to “score cheap and nasty political points” by ridiculing said government’s callous indifference.

For the record, I don’t know if the French foreign minister ever went shopping while elderly Parisians were succumbing to heatstroke two summers ago, and I don’t really care. I also think much of the criticism of the US (and state and local) government’s response to this disaster is overblown.

On the other hand, it appears that expectations of governmental competence and responsiveness have been raised considerably since, say, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (whose aftermath was hardly dissimilar to Katrina’s). Perhaps the example of 9/11 is responsible. Either way, if the result is that future disasters are met with the kind of well-oiled, efficient emergency response that some commentators here seem to expect–well, then, the criticism will have been well worthwhile.

54

Stephen M (Ethesis) 09.01.05 at 8:39 pm

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0901-01.htm

“What you’re seeing is revealing weaknesses in the state, local and federal levels,” said Eric Tolbert, who until February was FEMA’s disaster response chief. “All three levels have been weakened. They’ve been weakened by diversion into terrorism.”

In interviews on Wednesday, several men and women who’ve led relief efforts for dozens of killer hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes over the years chastised current disaster leaders for forgetting the simple Boy Scout motto: Be Prepared.

I really suspect that they thought they were only going to get a CAT 4 emergency …

Guess I should try to score some points off someone. I’m just too sad right now.

55

Kevin 09.01.05 at 8:41 pm

Charlie B., Thomas, forget for a minute what could have been done to prevent the levees from breaking (whether they would have withstood this storm or not), and focus for a minute on the fact that once the city of New Orleans was flooded, its poorest and most vulnerable citizens were left to fend for themselves. My God, there are HOSPITALS that are only being evacuated today.

Preparedness may have made a difference, but only an idiot would argue that Federal government response to this disaster hasn’t been pathetic in its disorganization. The head of FEMA told Paula Zahn a few hours ago that he had just found out today that there were people stranded at the N.O. convention centre. How the hell is that possible? Even the usually Zoloft-placid Paula seemed a little taken aback by that.

Oh, and Thomas, you may be a “pretty smart guy” (modesty is so becoming!), but your comments here also reveal you to be an insufferable twat.

56

bob mcmanus 09.01.05 at 8:44 pm

“expectations of governmental competence and responsiveness have been raised considerably since”

It is quite simple. There are premature babies in Charity and Memorial Hospitals, in the dark or weakening generators, running low on water and food, cared for by exhausted nurses….and I am told there is nothing the United States of America can do to help them given five days.

I don’t believe it.

57

Harry B 09.01.05 at 8:55 pm

Dan, funny how differently we read the pieces. I took Chris’s post to be a conjecture that the French heatwave would turn out much as Chicago’s, and for similar reasons. Hence the invocation of Klinenberg.
One of the unusual things about New Orleans is that this is a scenario which has long been conjectured — so much so that high school students get taught about it in their social studies classes.

By the way, I should have said ‘subtle’ not ‘obscure’ — less insulting and more accurate — sorry.

Why you think any of us is well-disposed to a right-wing French President and his government, btw, I’ve no idea.

58

Jackmormon 09.01.05 at 9:56 pm

I for one hope that Alan Greenspan is hard at work, and no, not at manual labor. The potential economic fallout from this disaster to one of this country’s most important ports and oil refining hubs is enormous. Nadezhda has been compiling articles about global financial market anxiety.

59

WitchyProf 09.01.05 at 10:09 pm

I just have one comment — WHERE IS THE NATIONAL GUARD?

And one other comment: Why are all the buses wasting gas going to the SuperDome *empty*? Why isn’t each and every one of these buses first loaded up with FOOD and WATER to take to the refugees who have to stay in the SuperDome and die of starvation and dehydration? How about a few dozen bus-loads of KFC?

60

Matt Weiner 09.01.05 at 10:10 pm

Now, tell us, would the planned and much-needed work you’re talking about have made any difference in this tragedy?

Mike Parker, Bush’s former head of the Army Corps of Engineers, thinks so. Mind you, he was fired for trying to get additional funding for protesting budget cuts, so maybe he’s biased. (I mean that, actually.) Maybe (as Jet suggested elsewhere) we should have a commission to study what went wrong.

(Fats Domino has been rescued by the Coast Guard, BTW.)

61

sara 09.01.05 at 10:24 pm

It is quite simple. There are premature babies in Charity and Memorial Hospitals, in the dark or weakening generators, running low on water and food, cared for by exhausted nurses….and I am told there is nothing the United States of America can do to help them given five days.

The compassion of the pro-life Christian Right, which tried to move heaven and earth to “save” a brain-dead white woman, does not extend to poor black people and their infants.

I don’t care whether it is “rational” or not to be indignant and horrified at the inefficiency of the response and the lack of planning. Most people do not think rationally. They are asking, “Where is my grandfather?” (many older people did not get out). “Where is my mother?” “Where is my home?” They will still be asking in 2006. Other people are getting angry.

if you don’t understand that, I assume that you are either (a) mindlessly loyal, i.e. a zombie, for the Republican party; (b) a heartless / autistic being with no clue about human reactions, including when your party is going to lose; (c) sociopathic, in that you and the Bush administration plan to hold onto power at all costs, including stealing the elections in 2006 and 2008.

Or a troll, who is merely gratified by attention, even negative.

62

Dan Simon 09.01.05 at 11:18 pm

Dan, funny how differently we read the pieces. I took Chris’s post to be a conjecture that the French heatwave would turn out much as Chicago’s, and for similar reasons. Hence the invocation of Klinenberg.

Perhaps I missed the part where Chris included among those reasons massive, inexcusable government incompetence in dealing with the emergency. Certainly Maria seemed indignant at the way pro-war conservatives were using the French government’s failure to address the crisis in time as a stick with which to pummel them.

One of the unusual things about New Orleans is that this is a scenario which has long been conjectured—so much so that high school students get taught about it in their social studies classes.

….Whereas deadly heatwaves in large urban areas were utterly unheard-of? As Chris pointed out, a book had even been written about the problem. For that matter, Hurricane Andrew was hardly an unthinkable scenario, either. Nor were the LA riots that same year.

Historically, the government’s power to deal with even foreseeable natural (or man-made) disasters has been understood to be somewhat limited. One could argue, plausibly, that that has been a self-fulfilling prophesy, and that raised expectations will ultimately be met, to everyone’s benefit. I was just arguing for a little historical perspective on the new, higher standard.

Why you think any of us is well-disposed to a right-wing French President and his government, btw, I’ve no idea.

Just speculation, of course, but it might have something to do with the critics being, as I said, mostly pro-war conservatives. Enemy’s enemy, and all that.

63

roger 09.01.05 at 11:35 pm

Sara, I agree with your points, but I come to a different conclusion than you, I think. This is a moment that reveals a lot of thing about our ruling party. One is its utter inability to govern. One hundred people just died in Chalmette, waiting for Fema, and who knows how many others have died after going to “transfer points” and being abandoned by the government. The Chertoffs, right now, are much more dangerous than the armed bands. The latter might wound you, but they aren’t going to starve your baby to death. The other is that the GOP, having practically no roots in black or working class neighborhoods, honestly doesn’t understand that the first assumption of a member of one of these neighborhoods might be that the government DOES plan to abandon them — to starve them, or let them drown. That these people think the malign neglect is intentional, rather than absent minded mass manslaughter. And the reaction to that is visceral and violent.

So, in the long term, progressives should rethink abandoning the GOP. The Rockerfeller Republicans might be our only hope — that pale liberal strand in the GOP that died out with Lindsey. Maybe it is time to seed the country with a thousand William Welds. The Dems, of course, are dead. The Greens are going nowhere. After the GOP leadership finishes killing one or two thousand Orleanites off in the next few days, shame might actually seize their membership. Time, then, to insinuate oneself into the party and take it back for the Ripon types.

64

Kip Manley 09.01.05 at 11:44 pm

Kobe?

Considering that the response by the Murayama administration was orders of magnitude more alacritous (six hours, I think, it took them to figure out something awful had happened?), and that it nonetheless was considered scandalously slow and disorganized, and spawned wide-ranging attempts at reform in everything from disaster response to fiscal policy, well, shit, yeah. I’d have to say the Japanese thought they could have done one fuck of a lot better, and who am I to disagree?

But we’re being hauled off track, and I’m as angry as I’ve ever been at what passes for a government hereabouts, and being called an asshole personally is about the best news I’ve read on the web today, so whatever. Live with the soft bigotry of your own damn lowered expectations if you like; at least you can live.

65

Ben P 09.02.05 at 12:57 am

Dan Simon:

On the other hand, it appears that expectations of governmental competence and responsiveness have been raised considerably since, say, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (whose aftermath was hardly dissimilar to Katrina’s).

I quite strongly disagree with this. A whole city – a city of half a million people – has been rendered uninhabitable for months, maybe forever. The New Orleans suburbs have suffered similar damage. Two small cities – Biloxi and Gulfport – as well as a whole host of other towns have been vritually destroyed. I’ve read 90% of the buildings in Gulfport have been damaged. Over a million people have been made refugees. 1000s have died. And this is before even getting to the damage done to transportation, port facilites (New Orleans – biggest port in America!!), as well as the oil and gas refining and pumping facilities.

Frankly, this is completely unprecedented.

And the problem with the government’s response so far is two-fold: one, they have done a very poor job morally framing the sheer magnitude of events in a way that matches peoples perceptions. This isn’t “just” another hurricane. Two, relief efforts – logistically – have been shambolic, slow, and disorganized.

Of course, I could get into the whole national guard situation, recent history of FEMA, funding for reclamation/levee projects, etc.. But this isn’t what has me angry. I’ve “costed that” into my analysis of the administration’s response. It is the lack of leadership and competence on display. George Bush could be left wing, right wing, whatever. But I certainly give him his due if he were on top of events.

But lets be honest. Rudy Giuliani or even George Bush post 9/11, this performance is not.

Ben P

66

Ben P 09.02.05 at 12:59 am

I should say, Dan, I think the relevant comparison is 9/11. Hence my last point.

67

AvengingAngel 09.02.05 at 1:25 am

Now should not be the time, as Kevin Drum of the Washington Monthly has noted, for the politics of blame. In the wake of Katrina’s devastation along the Gulf Coast, Americans should be united in providing relief, resources and support to all in need.

But sadly, that massive relief effort will take place during a time of divisive and fundamental debate about the very meaning of national unity in the United States. As New Orleans struggles for survival, the President and his amen corner are waging a full scale assault on the Estate Tax, what they derisively (and effectively )term the “Death Tax.” They will continue to pursue this massive transfer of the U.S. treasury to America’s wealthiest, even as a mountain of evidence shows that successive Bush budget cuts devastated New Orleans’ disaster preparedness and levee maintenance…

For the full story, see:

“New Orleans Pays the Death Tax.”

68

Peter 09.02.05 at 2:14 am

Fair enough, Dan. It is unfortunate that, for so many people, the need to score political points outweighs compassion and empathy. The disgraceful comments by the environmental minister of Germany come to mind.

On the other hand, I do think there is legitimate ground for discussion of the Bush Administration’s policies, especially on disaster mitigation. There is no question that the changes President Bush has made to FEMA need to be scrutinized:

69

Matt 09.02.05 at 2:29 am

I hate getting into this as I am not directly affected, but some of you might find this interesting…

Monday morning my, rather small and insignificant country in western Europe, offered to send relief to the storm stricken area. Now it is not much, granted, a field hospital, food, water purification equipment that kind of stuff (and trained personell to manage it). It is not much granted, they can help a couple of thousand people, but in my opinion every little helps.

It is now thursday morning and, my small insignificant and not important state department have not heard a squek in response to the offer sent on monday. Oh yea, I wouldn’t have brought it up if it was not for the fact that the slightly bigger offers of relief aid have met with the same non response.

So the fact that the secretary of state is not helping with the international offers of relief could be quite significant. But what do I know, I’m just a silly foreigner…

70

dsquared 09.02.05 at 2:34 am

As far as I can tell the position at the moment is that we must have a decent period of mourning before anyone can criticise the government, but that stigmatising the actual dead people as stupid, brutal and amoral looters can start right now. Apparently, it’s called moral clarity.

71

dsquared 09.02.05 at 2:37 am

Dan Simon: just to put it in context, here’s an example of the sort of thing that “conservative pro-war commentators” were up to at the time. It’s not really surprising that we were keen to distance ourselves.

72

Charlie B. 09.02.05 at 2:48 am

I’m pleased the Condi nonsense has stopped. I heard on TV news that there were originally 100,000 stranded in New Orleans. Is that figure generally accepted?

I have heard some figures recently for the number estimated to be stranded there now, but do not know whether they are at all reliable. On what figure are people relying (if any)?

A simple calculation suggests that complete
evacuation of New Orelans taking place at the rate of 2,000 people per hour would take 50 hours nonstop. That is 40 full buses per hour, every hour, day and night, in an orderly manner, with no problems, half-full buses, or delays. What level would it be reasonable to expect from any programme of disaster management? If it is different, change the figures.

73

dsquared 09.02.05 at 2:49 am

74

Dan Simon 09.02.05 at 3:11 am

Ben, I think you underestimate the scale of the damage wrought by Hurricane Andrew on South Florida: 25 billion dollars’ worth of property damage; a quarter of a million people left homeless; over a million left without power–more than a quarter-million for over a week, while looters ran rampant and the army and national guard struggled to maintain order and care for the victims. Yet I don’t remember nearly the same level of national outrage at the unsurprisingly spotty success of the disaster response infrastructure back then.

I agree with you that 9/11 is (now) the standard against which other emergency responses are measured. Yet 9/11 was also a unique event. It occurred in wealthy lower Manhattan, amidst high-rent office buildings, in a city which had already pioneered the restoration of order and safety in urban America. It was a foreign attack–that is, a powerful unifier of the citizenry–rather than an impersonal act of nature. And the terrible toll it exacted on emergency response personnel–at least some of which, we should remember, might well have been avoidable–no doubt heavily dampened criticisms of the emergency response effort in its aftermath.

Nevertheless, 9/11 did demonstrate that a disaster can lead to unity and (relative) order rather than chaos. And if a little outrage helps propagate that lesson, then perhaps that’s not such a bad thing. I was merely pointing out that the current catastrophe is more the norm, in historical terms, than the exception.

75

dsquared 09.02.05 at 3:16 am

A simple calculation suggests that complete
evacuation of New Orelans taking place at the rate of 2,000 people per hour would take 50 hours nonstop. That is 40 full buses per hour, every hour, day and night, in an orderly manner, with no problems, half-full buses, or delays. What level would it be reasonable to expect from any programme of disaster management?

Victoria Coach Station in London currently has a capacity of 10k passengers per hour, in relative comfort. The area in front of Victoria Rail terminal used to handle 280 buses per hour before the station was remodelled and VCS was built. In general, I think that 2000 passengers per hour is substantially less than the capacity of a single 1 hectare bus depot (like the Greyhound depot in New Orleans which was apparently closed) and would be an unambitious target for evacuation even under emergency conditions.

76

Charlie B. 09.02.05 at 3:37 am

What an interesting comment at #73. If it is in any way representative of the mentalities of those who have criticised crisis management in New orelans, I think they should all desist and make not one more posting here. I am very pleased for the people of New Orleans that the person who responsible for #73 has no part in the management of the evacution of New Orleans (at least I hope not), whose plans would being with a standard derived from a rail-bus interchange or national coach terminal operating in normal conditions at peak capacity according to schedules, supported at all points by managed logistics, including advanced booking, for passengers making journeys to known destinations. (Even then, I would dispute his figures.) Does anyone have anything sensible to say?

77

Dan Simon 09.02.05 at 3:47 am

Peter: By all means, go ahead and criticize the current administration’s FEMA policies. (Personally, I have no idea what they are or were, or what they should have been.) But if you’re arguing that there was once, or would surely have been, a FEMA that could have prevented or vastly mitigated today’s unfolding disaster, and that all that stood in the way was a few misguided policy decisions by a particular administration–well, color me skeptical.

Dsquared: I never doubted that plenty of anti-French American conservatives were gleefully pouncing on the Parisian heatwave, reading into it all manner of lessons about French perfidy/incompetence/just desserts–despite the fact that, as Chris pointed out, what had happened was not all that different from what had happened eight years previously in Chicago.

I therefore would have hoped that Crooked Timber’s criticism of the authorities’ response to the disaster in New Orleans would have been somewhat more studied and muted than it has been. We’re all entitled, it’s true, to demand perfectly smooth, efficient, effective, professional governmental responses to sudden large-scale catastrophes. Whether we’re entitled to expect them, on the other hand, given what we know of the history of these events, is another matter.

78

MFB 09.02.05 at 3:47 am

Why in the world is this debate even happening? The richest, most powerful nation in the world, faced with a disaster which was predictable decades in advance and was predicted a week in advance, turns out to have had no plan for coping with that disaster, and did not develop a plan after the disaster occurred, nor was the piecemeal response which actually emerged in any way effective to cope with the consequences of the disaster. Meanwhile the U.S. government has been trumpetting its intention of preparing for gigantic terrorist attacks ever since 2001. But now it turns out that there is no such preparation.

I am sure that there are many levels of government which are to blame for things like collapsing dykes, bad zoning policies and so on. That can be debated later. Nor should any political discussions distract attention from helping the people who have suffered and will suffer (vastly more people will suffer in future than are suffering how, because of the long-term damage to the city).

However, this is a gigantic failure of the federal government, the last bastion of civil society in the United States. Gigantic, and unforgiveable. If something like this happened to Cape Town and the Pretoria government responded in the way that the Washington government has responded to New Orleans, nobody would have any mercy or sympathy for Pretoria. I can’t understand how anybody, no matter what their political sympathies, can defend the crowd of — words fail me, incompetent, heartless buffoons doesn’t do it — people running the Federal government now.

79

bad Jim 09.02.05 at 3:55 am

Wasn’t the inadequate response to hurricane Andrew one of the reasons George H.W. Bush lost an election, despite the rosy glow from his little war? Under Clinton, FEMA was transformed from a dumping ground for political groupies into a capable organization. Under the latest Bush it was devolving even before it was squirreled away in the Department of Homeland Security basket, stripped of its disaster preparedness mission.

Calls for unity and abstention from partisan rancor ring hollow from the side that calls dissent in times of war treason and equates bipartisanship with date rape.

80

Charlie B. 09.02.05 at 3:56 am

The FT today includes reports that provide evidence for criticism of Bush administration budgetary proposals reducing flood/hurricane protection in LA, currently passed by the House, but unreconciled with Senate measures increasing those funds. None of this is relevant to the management of the current disaster and the enormous logistical challenge it represents.

The FT reports that there are 40,000 people still standed in New Orleans – if that and the 100,000 figure immediately after Katrina are correct, then 60,000 people have left. The FT also reports that current mobilisation of National Guard units places 30,000 troops in the city.

I have been seeing reports of airlifts from hospitals in New Orleans from the first hours after the storm – I don’t know what information others in this thread have about that.

I simply think that TV journalists have, as ususal, exaggerated circumstances for sensational effect, and people have accepted their hysterical and wholly impressionistic “analyses” and (as I am sure the journalists anticipated) turned the situation into a political football.

81

dsquared 09.02.05 at 4:57 am

Charlie, don’t be silly. You appear to be trying to claim that an emergency operation aimed at a whole city would be able to move *fewer* people than the capacity of a single bus station during normal operation. Also to clear up two issues; 10k passengers isn’t “peak” capacity for VCS; it is shut between midnight and 5am.

For what it is worth, 133,000 allied troops were evacuated from Dunkirk over a period of two days on May 31 and June 1 1940.

82

dsquared 09.02.05 at 5:05 am

Sorry, I missed the second point above, which was obviously that at the time that the order was given to evacuate the city of New Orleans, the town was not flooded and Hurricane Katrina had not struck.

83

charlie b. 09.02.05 at 8:28 am

Feeble. Victoria Coach Station is the principal hub of the UK’s national long-distance coach service. It is a station, not a service operator. The services are provided by tens of different national and regional companies, operating thousands of routes (including airport shuttles). They provide the buses, drivers and know-how. The station’s permanent handling capacity has been built up over years, not sprung into existence overnight, and relies on a vast number of access and exit routes, and integration with all other parts of the transport system. It has sophisticated mechanical, fuel, information and passenger services. Even so, the figure of 10,000 passengers thruput (see TfL Annual Report) includes both arrivals and departures. I can see no basis whatsoever for comparing disaster evacuation with these opertions, and I would reject as unqualified to comment anyone who thought you should.

84

Uncle Kvetch 09.02.05 at 8:55 am

Last night, 8:00 p.m., CNN. Paula Zahn talks to the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Emphasis mine.

*****
ZAHN: Sir, you aren’t telling me…

BROWN: … and that we take care of those bodies that are there.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: Sir, you aren’t just telling me you just learned that the folks at the Convention Center didn’t have food and water until today, are you? You had no idea they were completely cut off?

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Paula, the federal government did not even know about the Convention Center people until today.
*****

Dan Simon, Charlie B, help me out here. As of last night, upwards of 20,000 people–including the frail, the elderly, and infants–had been left to fend for themselves for four full days without food, water or shelter. And the federal government was unaware of their existence until yesterday.

Now some of us are finding this beyond comprehension, but given the heightened emotions of the moment, we may have expressed our total incredulity and horror in ways that offended your delicate sensibilities. And for that we all deeply apologize.

Nope, fuck it, I can’t do effective sarcasm today. Charlie B, the people who were at the Convention Center yesterday are still there–this morning’s New York Times reports that the crowds have swelled to 25,000 and they’re still not getting any help. Do you realize how utterly depraved you sound nattering on about the people-moving capacities of Victoria Coach Station? Do you have any sense of the magnitude of this failure? You have repeatedly said that you don’t have the “facts,” yet you seem quite confident that media like CNN are “exaggerating.” What information do you have that they don’t?

Clearly, I need to stay away from CT today. I’m one of those shrill ones.

85

Walt Pohl 09.02.05 at 9:03 am

The Bush apologists have become seriously pathological. In their minds, by definition whatever low level of achievement he manages to reach is the very apogee of performance. The truth is that the Bush administration screwed up here, just like they screwed up on 9/11, and screwed up the Iraq war. Through negligence, Bush has become a prodigious killer of Americans.

86

dsquared 09.02.05 at 9:38 am

Charlie, you’re claiming that it was literally impossible, in the richest and most powerful country in the world, to trick up 200 buses to make 10 trips each.

For what it’s worth, Ozzfest travels with 40 buses.

87

Kay 09.02.05 at 9:55 am

If I were the President, I’d be briefing the country twice daily from the Oval Office.

88

Kay 09.02.05 at 9:57 am

Why can’t the Convention Center be evacuated via the River? It’s right on the waterfront.

Anyone remember Dunkirk?

89

Walt Pohl 09.02.05 at 10:44 am

Kay: Only Dsquared.

90

Thomas 09.02.05 at 10:44 am

dd–that’s a great idea–we’ll use buses! Why, if only we could get you in touch with the people at FEMA! And if there’s water in the way, we’ll tie intertubes to the buses, and float them across! That’s it!

Is your department hiring?

91

dsquared 09.02.05 at 10:51 am

Perhaps we could build a bridge out of straw, Thomas, since you appear to have such a lot of it. The order to “evacuate New Orleans” was given (and therefore the decision not to provide transport to do so was taken) before the hurricane reached town.

92

Tom T. 09.02.05 at 10:56 am

One small point: Dunkirk took 4-7 days to organize, and about 1/10 of the men there were captured.

I do think, though, that daniel is generally right, if a bit overoptimistic. There is a fascinating article in the Natural Hazards Observer written after Ivan that speculated quite accurately as to what would happen to NOLA following a more direct hurricane strike. One point the author makes is that there were discussions after Georges of using public-transit buses to move carless people out of town, but this idea was never acted upon.

By way of example (since it’s the only hard number I could find), Washington, DC has 1500 municipal buses. If we assume that New Orleans has 1/3 as many, that’s 500. Even given breakdown and absenteeism issues, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that the city could have put 300 buses into evacuation duty. More buses could have been commandeered from Greyhound or various tour services, too, although one can’t easily commandeer drivers.

10 trips is too optimistic, though, I think. That NHO article points out that, during the Ivan evacuation, it took about 12 hours to drive 90 miles. At best, one could probably only have gotten 3-4 trips from these buses. Still enough to have made a significant step forward in the evacuation, it seems.

93

dsquared 09.02.05 at 11:02 am

I’ve just realised that the National Guard is driving trucks in and out of the city, by the way, so Thomas couldn’t even get the strawman attack right.

Tom T: you’re right that Dunkirk took a couple of days to plan, but I would have hoped that there might have been a bit of a plan for what to do in case of a hurricane since they’re not exactly unknown there.

94

Charlie B. 09.02.05 at 11:04 am

“You’re claiming that it was literally impossible, in the richest and most powerful country in the world, to trick up 200 buses to make 10 trips each.”

I hate this back and forth stuff. But 200 big (50 person) buses, immediately, where you want them, with drivers, fuelled throughout their use, is a tall order.

10 trips each, return to Houston, round the clock, would take 3 days to shift 100,000 people, assuming 100% full buses on every trip, and no breakdowns. To do those 10 trips around the clock would require 600 qualified, available drivers. All assuming a maximum load of 50 passengers per bus per trip.

I have no doubt at all that the US could provide such resources. At very short notice, in a hurricane-devastated region the size of the UK, I don’t think so. It could provide fewer immediately, and gradually more over a few days. Organisation of 2,000 bus movements would also be relatively strightforward normally, but not in this case. If anyone thinks a bus operation of this kind is a piece of cake, fine. Your knowledge and judgement of logistics is different to mine.

I have no doubt that mistakes and failures characterise the disaster relief effort. Some of them are no doubt serious and worthy of censure. But I do not believe they have anything to do with the President. I do believe the self-righteousness cant of those who cannot offer a single concrete suggestion for addressing the problems is evidence of their low intellectual and moral worth.

95

Marc 09.02.05 at 11:05 am

Thomas: you *do* know that they are using buses to get people out of the city, right? That the entire city is not under water, and that in particular the areas where there are refugees are reachable?

Every time that I think the Stalinist defenders of Dear Leader Bush can’t get any lower they do the limbo. Is there anything at all that would merit criticism of their beloved cult figure?

96

Richard 09.02.05 at 11:13 am

In regards to President Bush’s seeming complete lack of connection to this tragedy and his failure to convey even an iota of empathy, note the rhetoric he’s been using in his statements. He repeatedly begins sentences with “The Federal government has a responsibility . . .”

While neutral enough, it belies this adminstration’s belief that the Federal govt. is somehow seperate from and above the American people. They aren’t a part of the American people; they are distant feudal lords with an inability to put themselves in the shoes of the victims (rather, they put themselves in the shoes in NYC showrooms!)

Chalk another point up for the Strict Father model.

97

jayann 09.02.05 at 11:15 am

Thomas, what Mark said and amphibious vehicles

98

Uncle Kvetch 09.02.05 at 11:34 am

I have no doubt that mistakes and failures characterise the disaster relief effort. Some of them are no doubt serious and worthy of censure. But I do not believe they have anything to do with the President.

But of course: the buck stops over there someplace. The Republican creed of personal responsibility. Nothing new about that, of course. Ever since GWB took office we’ve had to create a whole new category of fuckup: the kind that’s nobody’s fault.

Charlie, I hope you’re prepared to see the people who are “worthy of censure” getting medals and promotions from the President instead. There’s ample precedent for that already.

If people are looking for historical analogies, Atrios pointed out an interesting one today:

June 24, 1948: the Soviet Union blocks access to the arteries of the three Western-held sectors of Berlin

June 25, 1948: General Lucius D. Clay gives the order to launch a massive airlift to fly supplies into the Western-held sectors of Berlin

June 26, 1948: the first airplane carrying food and supplies touches down in the Western sector of Berlin

99

Grand Moff Texan 09.02.05 at 12:04 pm

But I do not believe they have anything to do with the President.

OK. So who is in charge at a time like this?

And who appointed that person?

All clear now?
.

100

Tom T. 09.02.05 at 12:06 pm

daniel, you’re quite right; one would think that there would have been plans for an evacuation of the carless, particularly after Georges and Ivan, but it seems like the Superdome was the extent of the planning.

The Berlin analogy is interesting, but a bit limited. For one thing, the blockade of traffic from western Germany actually began on June 18; June 24 was apparently the date Berlin was cut off from all outside traffic. Also, flights with relief supplies began flying in to NOLA’s airport on August 30, but obviously there’s been a massive failure of distribution from there.

101

russell 09.02.05 at 12:09 pm

The federal government has spent years, money, and a considerable amount of supposed introspection in trying to improve the efficiency of response operations to terrorist attacks. Intelligence gathering, in the case of this particular event, was a breeze. The experts have warned over and over again about the potential consequences of this particular kind of natural disaster in New Orleans, and yet the federal government did not act in time. Once the order had been given for an evacuation of an entire city, some alarm should have been raised in the defense community, in case something like the levees breaking were to happen. The National Guard should have been on alert, ready to be sent to the city with medical supplies, food, and water, by day one after the disaster. Instead, the response has been a national tragedy.

If this is what happens when a foreseen disaster occurs, with scientific intelligence informing our understanding of the potential consequences, then what does that tell us about all the money invested in getting the federal government ready to respond–informed by less stellar intelligence–in case of another serious terrorist attack?

102

Uncle Kvetch 09.02.05 at 12:20 pm

The National Guard should have been on alert, ready to be sent to the city with medical supplies, food, and water, by day one after the disaster.

Fully a third of the Louisiana National Guard is in Iraq at the moment.

103

russell 09.02.05 at 12:28 pm

oh, but uncle kvetch, you’re going to offend the delicate sensibilities of morally upright and intellectually prodigious individuals like charlie b. and thomas. hush. besides, mr. charlie b., with his profound psychological and ethical insight into human affairs, will likely conclude even more brilliant general hypotheses about those who dare show any semblance of indignation about the failure of the federal response.

104

Charlie B. 09.02.05 at 1:01 pm

As it happens, I think I did not mention Victoria Coach station first, and it is certainly not as irrelevant to the questions of capacity and allocation raised here as the footwear purchases of the Secretary of State.

It is interesting to see how my deliberate attempt to reflect what would appear to be some legitimate criticisms of disaster relief provision, and to weigh arguments, was seized on.

Nearly all of the comments above rely on hindsight. Did anyone, a few days ago, post a comment, anywhere, along the lines of “why the hell isn’t everyone being got out of New Orleans” or “the government needs to make damn sure that people without cars, the disabled and the perverse are brought out from New Orleans, and quick”? From the passion with which they are arguing now, one might have expected that they would have done. Or were they intellectually unprepared or uninterested? Focussed on Iraq perhaps?

The President is responsible for the federal government, and appropriate federal actions were taken at the appropriate times (see the FT today). It was only when the state and local governments were overwhelmed that direct federal intervention became necessary, and that was not evident – could not be evident – before the flooding occurred, or until a while after. Even then, the federal government has, in the first instance, to work through local command and with locally available material.

National resources can and are being brought to bear on the situation, but inevitably it takes a while. Has anyone got a bad word to say for the city or state governments? They are not under the authority of the President, and have a large measure of responsibility for immediate disiater relief management.

None of the examples of extreme government sponsored population movements, supply or disaster aid occurred on the time scale that people are demanding here. I simply think they are being unrealistic – something the TV journalists (like the ones I have just watched on BBC1) encourage them in. Nothing pleases those journo pariahs more than the prospect of human disaster, and they predict it with all the rhetorical power at their disposal – as they have done again and again in the last few years, often only to be disappointed — is Biloxi really “returned to the stone age” as I was told tonight? is the situation in New Orleans really the result of racial mistrust of blacks by “white people” as I was told by the BBCC reporter in the city?

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fifi 09.02.05 at 1:13 pm

“I therefore would have hoped that Crooked Timber’s criticism of the authorities’ response to the disaster in New Orleans would have been somewhat more studied and muted than it has been.”

Well I guess it takes all kinds and ambitions to make the world a better place because I would hope that when the authorities do a fair job the people will criticize them for not doing even better. If that should hurt the authorities’ feelings they can always go to you for a hug. It’s a win-win dynamic situation.

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Uncle Kvetch 09.02.05 at 1:32 pm

None of the examples of extreme government sponsored population movements, supply or disaster aid occurred on the time scale that people are demanding here.

An email received by blogger Laura Rozen:

Dear Andras, Laura,

Watching events unfold in the New Orleans area I had flashbacks of the 1995 river Rhine and Meuse floods in Holland. Then, in just under two days aurthorities staged a forced evacuation of almost half a million people (total Dutch pop. is 16 million) and 2 million heads of cattle, pigs etc. It was the most orderly mass-operation I have ever seen.

I live near Holland’s main disaster hospital AMC, which can effectively triple its capacity from 1,200 to 4,000 patients in 3 hours by opening up its six-story undergound disaster unit, and witnessed how hundreds of ambulances, army trucks and dozens of medicopters (including German and Belgian air-borne operating theatres) brought in hospital patients, people from care homes and the disabled from the disaster areas. Roads were closed to all other traffic, in hospitals across the country an overwhelming – and fortunatly unnecessary – number of staff and volunteers were on stand-by.

The material damage was incredible, but there were no casualties, there were three meals every day for every temporarily displaced man, woman and child, all cows were fed and milked, there was no looting. National public TV within days set up a disaster charity show which raised over 60M guilders (EUR 30M) to pay for damages not covered by insurance.

What I’m seeing on TV now is a third-world country with a government unwilling or incompetent to fulfill its tasks. I feel very, very sorry for the residents of the area.

Frank

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russell 09.02.05 at 1:53 pm

It may surprise the infinitely intelligent charlie b., but this humble inferior being has been expressing the very same ideas since three days ago. But whether I was intellectually unprepared four or five days ago is besides the point. Why should *I* be prepared? It certainly wasn’t *I* who had to make plans and decisions concerning the potential damage of the hurricane, and *I* certainly didn’t have the benefit of all the information that FEMA had. But let the talented Mr. b. deflect and dismiss sound criticism by adjudicating particular states of mind to his political opponents, and worse of all, by suggesting that criticism with the advantage of hindsight is somehow morally bankrupt.

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Thomas 09.02.05 at 2:08 pm

What’s interesting to me is that, with their sickening urge to attack Bush–more power to you with that–they are actually attacking the public servants at FEMA. The engineers, the planners, the mid-level bureaucrats who planned for this kind of event, and who worked and are working to get things accomplished. Needless to say, many, maybe most of these people are good, hard-working, accomplished people, even if they aren’t fancy university types, and I’d guess that most of them even vote for Democrats. Those are the people on the front lines, and they’re the ones that are being attacked for their incompetence, by people who haven’t a clue what they’re talking about. Much as we–well, those on the left posting here–fantasize about a Great Leader taking charge in times of tragedy, the truth is more mundane, with the actual work being done by more ordinary sorts. As it happens, most everyone here thinks that’s a problem, but as far as I can tell, that’s because most here fantasize that they’d be the Great Leader.

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abb1 09.02.05 at 2:16 pm

Ah, yes, of course – a few bad apples at FEMA.

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harry b 09.02.05 at 2:17 pm

Did anyone, a few days ago, post a comment, anywhere, along the lines of “why the hell isn’t everyone being got out of New Orleans” or “the government needs to make damn sure that people without cars, the disabled and the perverse are brought out from New Orleans, and quick”?

No. But several people I conversed with in the days before the hurricane hit said exactly this — not in a critical way, but in a “My god, they are going to have to get everyone out of there, that is going to be a huge task, but since New Orleans has been expecting this for decades I’m sure they have plans for it” kind of a way. Nothing special about the people I talked to — I imagine that the public dismay at the response to the Hurricane is triggered partly by the fact that from the moment it looked as if NO might be hit the conversations I was having were being had by millions of people. My news sources are pretty much public radio, public TV and the BBC: but anyone who was half-attending to those news sources was well aware that such things as mass evacuations were on the cards, well before the hurricane actually hit.

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russell 09.02.05 at 2:36 pm

call me a skeptic, but reading thomas’s psychological insights on the minds of leftists, i’ve started doubting the man’s claim to intellectual prodigy. perhaps psychology is just not his calling. FEMA the institution (not necessarily its individual employees) screwed up, and the federal government has failed the people of New Orleans, and this compounded with the post 9-11 government rhetoric, it is quite reasonable for those of us in the political opposition to cast doubt on the frequently parroted claim that we’re now much more secure than before.

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russell 09.02.05 at 2:43 pm

perhaps thomas’s apprehensions can be appeased by disclosing that most of us do not blame President Bush personally for any particular failure in the rescue operations. i certainly don’t. but i do believe that there have been some serious, serious mistakes, and that this is exactly the moment to look back at the lessons from 9-11, and ask tough questions about what the performance of the federal government has been like in the aftermath of Katrina. even if i were the staunchest supporter of President Bush, i would still care far too much about the security of my nation to be thoroughly preoccupied about the likelihood that Bush will bear some of the political cost of this reflective examination.

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Thomas 09.02.05 at 2:58 pm

russell, I’ve said it before: I’m smart, I’m well educated, therefore my intellect knows no bounds. Sociology yesterday, psychology today, engineering tomorrow. Just like you.

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abb1 09.02.05 at 3:29 pm

Thomas, what would it take for you to admit that the feds fucked up?

Like, say, if they accidentally dropped a nuclear bomb on the city instead of load of sandwiches and bottled water – would this qualify as a proof of failure — or those on the left who haven’t a clue what they’re talking about shouldn’t ever second-guess actions of FEMA/WH hard-working managers and experts?

Thanks.

115

fifi 09.02.05 at 3:31 pm

Oh, I know. An unauthorized blowjob.

116

Marc 09.02.05 at 3:41 pm

Russell, Thomas is a partisan hack, and his entire purpose here is to defend George Bush. The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right name. The fury that you’re seeing here from the left is a direct consequence of the actions of the Bush administration since the disaster happened. There is a stunning disconnect between what the officials in charge are saying and what is actually happening. We’re not blaming the disaster relief folks on the ground, of course – we’re witnessing utter incompetence and denial at the highest level. We’re seeing the head of FEMA blandly annoucing that he’s unaware of desperate crowds at the convention center – at a time when there have been live TV feeds of those crowds all day long prior to his interview. We’re seeing the president saying that no one forsaw this problem (while his FEMA head flunky blames the victims for having stayed; excuses only apply to the leadership, I guess). Anyone watching the TV for days beforehand had a very different impression, of course. Even Fox News and the Washington Times are critical of Dear Leader Bush. We’re seeing many thousands of people die before our eyes, our government isn’t doing anything….

and the problem, according to the Bushistas here, is the irrational hatred of Bush on the left.
What a world.

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Uncle Kvetch 09.02.05 at 4:20 pm

We’re seeing the head of FEMA blandly annoucing that he’s unaware of desperate crowds at the convention center – at a time when there have been live TV feeds of those crowds all day long prior to his interview.

And one day later we’re hearing the President pat his flunky on the head and give him a cookie, and I quote: “You’re doing a great job, Brownie!”

Mistakes have been made. Stuff happens. Now watch this drive.

118

Kip Manley 09.02.05 at 4:34 pm

Y’know, Thomas, earlier I was quivering in a white-hot rage: here, here was a symptom of the grotesque pass-the-buck I-got-mine illness that threatens the very fabric of our country, and all I had to do was come up with a one-two fuck-you and I’d—

Well, what, exactly? Beyond using what little impotent power I have to get a rise out of someone where I can actually see it happen?

So I’m giving money to ACORN instead. And I was going to leave it at that and walk away, but the last word’s all too tempting. I mean, I gotta take my hat off to you, you sad-sack we-couldn’t-ever-have-done-any-better-so-why-the-fuck-bother sonofabitch: you’ve pushed me to the point where I’m on the same goddamn side as Newt fucking Gingrich:

Even Republicans were criticizing Bush and his administration for the sluggish relief effort. “I think it puts into question all of the Homeland Security and Northern Command planning for the last four years, because if we can’t respond faster than this to an event we saw coming across the Gulf for days, then why do we think we’re prepared to respond to a nuclear or biological attack?” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

So kudos, but remember this: we’re not laughing with you. We’re laughing at you.

It’s that or break down crying.

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Thomas 09.02.05 at 4:44 pm

Marc, it might help if not everything that came out of your furious little mouth came “from the left”. You know, that might help you with the credibility charge.

Of course you don’t mean to blame those on the front lines. But those are precisely the people who planned for this, and who are executing the plan. Now, you are honest when you say you don’t mean to blame them, but that’s just to say that you mean only to blame the Hated Chimp, or whatever you idiots are referring to him as today. And, as I said, that’s great–blame Bush all you want for this. But do it rationally: say something like, he’s lost the Mandate of Heaven. Now, obviously that’s not itself rational, but it makes a hell of a lot more sense than spouting on and on about things that you don’t know about, and in the process insulting precisely those people you say you don’t mean to insult.

“our government isn’t doing anything” is the most fanciful statement I’ve ever seen.

Where’s Alan Greenspan again? I hope he’s watching the live video feed! If you’re not watching tv, how do you know what’s happening?

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russell 09.02.05 at 4:51 pm

well done, kip. except maybe fields medalist mr. thomas thinks newt gingrich is from the left.

“our government isn’t doing anything” is the most fanciful statement I’ve ever seen.

thomas, thomas, stop exaggerating: it makes you look slightly dumb.

121

Stephen M (Ethesis) 09.02.05 at 5:39 pm

June 24, 1948: the Soviet Union blocks access to the arteries of the three Western-held sectors of Berlin

June 25, 1948: General Lucius D. Clay gives the order to launch a massive airlift to fly supplies into the Western-held sectors of Berlin

June 26, 1948: the first airplane carrying food and supplies touches down in the Western sector of Berlin

The airlift was symbolic. The real supplies came in by canal, we were prepared to engage in limited strategic nuclear warfare if those were closed.

Too bad New Orleans isn’t near a body of water.

122

Stephen M (Ethesis) 09.02.05 at 5:46 pm

I’m amazed that with 100,000 people left behind they’ve only got 40,000 or so left to deal with now.

Of course New Orleans isn’t the only place striken. The entire delta area has really taken it hard.

It is really too bad that they got a CAT 5 swell and that they got more than the 20,000 or so people they expected to get left behind.

123

Stephen M (Ethesis) 09.02.05 at 5:50 pm

BTW, from Ozarque:

absolutely.
[info]slcronin
2005-09-02 15:32 (link)
http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/CERT/
http://www.hillsborocert.org/flyerList.htm

CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) is highly recommended. It’s training in how to take care of yourself and help take care of your neighbors for the first several days after a disaster, when it’s likely official help will be overwhelmed. Where I am, the training is free, but even if there isn’t training in your area, the materials are available at the websites above, including information about putting together a 72-hour kit.

Also, the latest update from my husband, who’s still helping at the temporary hospital at the New Orleans Airport: They were completely overwhelmed with patients on Wednesday, never less than 15-20 ambulances waiting in a line to unload patients, 2-3 helicopters at a time, too. More medical teams arrived on Thursday, and there have been national guard there to help keep everyone safe, so things started to get under control. The forestry service arrived Thursday night/Friday morning and set up one of their base of operations for the emergency workers, so they now have beds and showers and meals being prepared for them, which is helping morale a LOT. And what a coincidence, that things started to get under control about 72 hours after the disaster…

http://www.livejournal.com/users/ozarque/144519.html?view=2254983#t2254983

Interesting first person discussion, mixed with various hostile comments towards the current government, etc. by the posters there (the post itself that I am quoting is by http://www.livejournal.com/users/slcronin/ )

124

agm 09.02.05 at 9:30 pm

1) Dear God. You people don’t understand. This wasn’t one city hit by a big storm. This was significant chunks of THREE STATES quite literally ravaged, with something like 80% (according to NPR’s coverage) of the city flooded, including a levee breaking the day after. We are not talking about half a million people, we are talking about many, many more than that, many of them in small towns unreachable or hard to reach right now, yet the rescue efforts are required to work there as well. The closest and largest bastion of aid is by far Houston, and the reports are already that we are maxing out on our capabilities — the Astrodome is full, the shelters are full, pretty quickly Med Center will be stressed if not already. We got an email today about being cautious because many of our faculty, staff, and students live close by; one of my friends used to be able to walk out the front of his apartment complex and see Reliant/Astrodome/Astroworld. The Astrodome was largely filled BEFORE they got significant numbers of people leaving the Superdome. You absolutely have to keep your volunteers, law enforcement, etc in good health, because otherwise they are not able to any good to anyone.

I suspect that the atomic bomb analogy a bit above is much, much better description; many of the pictures will be more reminiscent of Hiroshima than of Andrew.

2) What is wrong with you people? There will be a time or reckoning, but this is not it. This time is to figure out what can be done and how. Bitching about the government’s large-scale response right now is analogous to saying “Why didn’t they get all those people away from the coastal areas?” the first few days after the tsunami hit. First you save and restore as many as you can; after that you put heads on the chopping block if you feel a need.

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Stephen M (Ethesis) 09.02.05 at 10:10 pm

I think this thread is over, so I’ll note that I’ve used part of it for my own blog post at

http://ethesis.blogspot.com/2005/09/time-will-pass-but-i-thought-i-would.html

126

sheli 09.02.05 at 10:45 pm

I have just completed reading all these 124 postings and am amazed at the lack of compassion. The last few are spot on. This is a disaster beyond anyone’s comprehension. Misjudging the magnitude? Yes.
Why would anyone think these public officials are to blame? They did not create the disaster. They are trying to get a massive relief effort together. One which most of us could never imagine.
My heart goes out to the victims and pray they will get relief as quickly as possible. Have any of you sent in a contribution? or sent clothes to Houston? or donated blood at the Red Cross? or donate food to local charities to get it to the victims?
The world is watching us complain, point fingers and degrading our politicians. That’s a great image. Whether you like or do not like the mayor, govenors, FEMA, legislators or the executive branch, button up. Roll up your sleeves and help.

127

Uncle Kvetch 09.03.05 at 9:37 am

There will be a time or reckoning, but this is not it.

Anyone who’s paid the slightest attention to the GWB administration during its first 4-1/2 years in office knows that this is patently false. There will be no reckoning and no accountability. All “we people” can do about that is scream. Sorry if that offends you.

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Procrastinator 09.03.05 at 2:38 pm

Funnily, Unkie, I didn’t read that as the approportioning of blame, but in the apocalyptic sense – i.e. AGM was referring to the Day of Judgement. The Rapture when the Elect rise body and soul to heaven, and the rest of us breath a sigh of relief.

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Procrastinator 09.03.05 at 2:41 pm

Funnily, Uncie, I read in that comment not that AGM was referring to the approportioning of blame, but in the eschatological sense. The Day of Judgement. The Rapture when the Elect rise, body and soul, to heaven and the rest of us breathe a deep sigh of relief.

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Rachel 09.03.05 at 11:26 pm

Two basic questions come to mind right now: (1) There’s already been unacceptable loss of life in New Orleans and environs– what can we do to fix it *right now* so it doesn’t get any worse? And (2) what do we do to make sure this never happens again? In my opinion, anything else can wait till the bleeding’s been stanched.

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