Thanks to James Wimberley for prompting me to write this, and alerting me to the data on China’s emissions
Most of the news these days is bad, and that’s true of the climate. Even as climatic disasters worsen, the Trump regime is doing its best to dismantle US and global efforts to decarbonize our energy systems. But there is still some surprisingly good news.
First, China’s emissions from coal-fired electricity appear to have peaked. Thermal power generation fell 5.8 per cent in January and February this year, relative to 2024. The only times this has happened previously were during the Covid lockdowns and in the aftermath of the GFC. On this occasion, total power demand fell by 1.5 per cent due to a warm winter, but the big decline in coal was due to increased solar generation.
And China’s solar industry keeps on growing on all fronts. China added another 277 GW of PV last year, more than all the capacity installed in the world up to 2015. Recorded exports were 236GW, another record. Since production was estimated at more than 600 GW, it seems likely there are some unrecorded installations.
All this is happening even though new coal-fired power stations are still being built, largely for political rather than economic reasons. It seems likely that these plants will see limited operation as solar power (augmented with storage) meets more and more demand.
Second, the great AI boom in electricity demand has turned out to be a mirage, at least so far. This isn’t always obvious from the breathless tone of coverage. For example, this story leads with the claim that “Electricity consumption by data centers will more than double by 2030”, but leaves the reader to calculate that this implies an increase of just 1.5% in global demand.
Notably, Microsoft which was one of the leading promoters of claims about electricity demand is now scaling back its investments. And large numbers of data centres in China are apparently idle
Even Trump is helping in perverse ways. His policies are already reducing projections of US economic growth, which will accelerate the decline of coal-fired power in particular. His attempts to defy economic reality by keeping coal plants open are unlikely to have much effect in this context.
And coal is on the way out in many other countries. Finland just closed its last coal-fired powerand even laggards like Poland are making progress
The picture is less promising with the transition to electric vehicles, which has slowed in most places. But once we complete the transition to solar, wind and storage, electricity will be massively cheaper. And once again, China is a bright sport, with electrics taking 25 per cent of the market in 2024, and new vehicles becoming cheaper and cheaper. BYD is now offering an electric car in Australia for less than $A30 000 (a bit under $20 000 US).
As I argued a year ago, the irresistible force of ultra-cheap solar PV will overcome the seemingly immovable barriers in its way.
Note Links got lost in copying from my Substack. You can find them here
{ 12 comments }
oldster 04.13.25 at 11:01 am
Thanks for good news, John.
TF79 04.14.25 at 2:57 am
The point about Chinese coal plants being built for political reasons is interesting, any good links or articles for further reading on that?
Laban 04.14.25 at 1:54 pm
“once we complete the transition to solar, wind and storage…”
Storage. Aye, there’s the rub.
Any technology for safe, cheap storage that doesn’t involve big lakes and dams? We can’t all be Sweden or Norway.
Laban 04.14.25 at 2:12 pm
And what of the coal burned in, say, steel plants?
My understanding, from the IEA site, is that global coal use was at a record in 2024, and so was global oil use. Looks as if gas demand rose as well, so all three fuels are actually being burned at record levels.
So a peak is not quite with us, unless we are on it as of now.
But IF storage can be cracked and PV/wind energy is as cheap as you say, then our energy future looks less gloomy than I thought.
Alex SL 04.14.25 at 9:43 pm
That would, indeed, be the first sign of good news after the trend line of carbon emissions historically only ever pointing up (outside of global economic crises). Now the question remains whether a downward trend brings us down to net zero fast enough before global heating progresses to where several billion people have no food and significant parts of the tropics become uninhabitable. Hitting the breaks is a good start, but if we are going 120 km/h while already being only ten meters from the cliff, it only does so much.
hix 04.15.25 at 3:44 am
Not feeling it. It comes down to let us oppose renewables even when they are cheaper and just outright subsidise nuclear power, in any pre externality calculation ! And yes, this really happens all the time. It is odd enough when people oppose wind generators on the ground of being ugly or too noisy – ill grant a fictional half point for those things if you are really close – which is why the legal distance requirements usually exceed those distances by a multitude. It really does happen with photovoltaic installations just the same, village councils voting them down because they “look ugly”??? Yes really.
Don’t get me started on the imagined reasons why electric cars are bad that keep people from buying them. But then, the market for new cars seems essentially one for crazy rich people in the first place. Cheap small cars, god forbid electric ones with a battery that lasts less than 200 km – nah, that audience needs to buy a used semi monster, not interesting enough. The smallest cheapest (and also the lowest energy consumption in real life regarding current models) electric car in Europa right now is an SUV made in China…… not that small one either, the Dacia Spring.
RCRIII 04.16.25 at 6:17 pm
Thanks for this! I find pessimistic JQ terrifying.
John Q 04.17.25 at 5:30 am
Trigger warning for RCRIII. Don’t read the post I am about to put up
Laban: any reversible physical process is a storage technology. Batteries and pumped hydro the leaders at present, but there’s flywheels, counterweights and many more. Need lots of different technologies with different properties (cost, duration, rapidity of response) but they are coming,
Laban 04.17.25 at 11:12 am
Agreed, but the tech isn’t there yet (most don’t have Sweden’s topography and low population, I can just see a tower block full of Tesla Walls going up in flames) so meanwhile you need sufficient generation to replace ALL of solar and wind (for still winter days). Which is expensive.
I know they were considering an underwater DC cable from Iceland to the UK. Now if they could get distance on them, maybe Europe could be powered by Saharan PV in the day and Australian PV at night.
Laban 04.17.25 at 11:50 am
Thee other issue in the UK is the insane cost of electricity, even more so for charging a car “on the road”. It’s killing UK industry, what’s left of it.
There’s a reason why the car hire place has all its ICE offerings taken out first. Charging away from home is expensive as well as time consuming.
steven t johnson 04.17.25 at 3:45 pm
hix@6 Where I live, if I want to see a movie I have to drive sixty miles. And if I want to see a livestream of the Met I have to drive a minimum of 170 miles. Worst of all, I don’t have enough extension cords to charge my hypothetical electric, even if I left my door open to run them out to the car. Not all issues with EV are imaginary?
Tm 04.24.25 at 8:13 am
Thanks for this. According to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China, fossil fuel electricity generation has again increased in 2024, but much less than before. Of 630 TWh additional electricity generated, 110 was from fossil, 111 from wind, 255 from solar. This seems consistent with the hypothesis that fossil generation has reached its peak.
In 15 years, generation from wind and solar increased from 27 to 1636 TWh, hydro from 616 to 1426, nuclear from 70 to 451 (notice that while nuclear is not negligible, it matters far less and increases much slower than renewables), and fossil from 3007 to 6374.
China’s incredible energy hunger, driven by continuing economic expansion, has obviously been driving the country’s, and the world’s, rise in emissions. It would be interesting to look not only at electricity but at the fossil fuel consumption overall. Electricity might displace some other energy use (e. g. coal heating) and the increasing share of EV cars should reduce oil consumption (but this depends on the growth of car use overall).
Meanwhile China’s population is actually contracting. At some point this energy hunger must peak like it did in older industrialized countries. Then fossil fuel use might decline relatively quickly.
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