Cuban Oil

How about

(7) Develop new drilling technology to get at the oil from US waters, and just take the stuff.

[Disclaimer: I have no clue whether this is practical or not]

I like how the Post article claims that the Cuban embargo has had zero effect so far, while completely ignoring the effects to the Cuban population not to mention the effect on the sugar industry in the US and the rise of High Fructose corn syrup.

Everyplace there’s oil, there too are the enemies of freedom. I have to conclude that god must hate us, too.

Cuba aside, who exactly are “those lefties who oppose anything that could be called ‘globalization'”? As many have pointed out, an awful lot can be called globalization depending on who is doing the calling…

With respect to the oil itself, given that oil is fungible, I vote for none-of-the-above. Cuba will the new oil it pumps domestically, reducing or eliminating its imports. The U.S. will buy some of the imported oil that Cuba no longer needs.

A more interesting issue is with respect to contracts to oil companies to develop the new offshore wells. From Cuba’s point of view, there would be no advantage to going along with #2 — why give contracts to U.S. companies if no relaxation of the overall embargo is forthcoming?

But that, of couse, assumes that the Cuban government would really like to see the end of the embargo, which I think is doubtful (as it would reduce the usefulness of the U.S. as general-purpose bogeyman).

Jon, you are correct that people like Jerry Mander oppose “globalization”, but it doesn’t help things to generalize about “leftists” in those terms. The Marxist left in particular looks at things from a different perspective. It challenges the right of *imperialism* right to dominate the Cuban economy but it is not opposed to equitable trade between nations. Cuba would love to be able to sell its newly found oil, tobacco and sugar in the USA and buy John Deere tractors with the revenue. For that matter, I really wonder if this is what is bugging the “anti-globalization” types like Naomi Klein to begin with. I think that they are a lot closer to Marxism on such question, based on the evidence of her writings on Argentina. People like Jerry Mander can best be described as “neo-Luddites” so the opposition to globalization is partly based on a desire to turn back the clock. At any rate, I am pleased to see an absence of hostility to Cuba in your post and in the comments section. We are making progress.

I’m with slocum. Oil is fungible. Americans do not need to buy any oil directly from Cuba in order to benefit from Cuba’s oil find.

Assuming efficient markets, which is reasonably realistic when it comes to raw oil, the USA will get the same economic benefit from Cuba oil regardless of whether it maintains the embargo or invades Cuba. (The costs of the different options vary considerably of course).

It seems this issue was the prime mover in getting the USA to recognize Vietnam and stop the diplomatic silliness. US oil interests didn’t want to be left on the sidelines of Vietnam “oil play”. There is reason to hope that this will be the wedge issue that finally gets some progress on US/Cuba affairs because it is reasonable to surmise that big oil has as much access to the current US administration as the Miami Cuba lobby.

As to the OP, I see #6 as the clear front runner still. As regards to #3 remember that the USA sells Cuba lots of food, about a billion worth since 2001.

Not really on topic, but I’m an occasional cigar smoker and even more occasional reader of “Cigar Afficianado”, a magazine which is essentially cigar porn – it portrays an utterly unrealistic (at least for me) world of private gets, expensive brandy, yachts etc.

But the interesting thing is that the magazine’s politics, such as they are, are pretty right wing, except on the matter of the Cuban embargo. This is not due to any moral scruples or recognition that nasty as the Cuban regime is, it’s a lot better than many countries the US is happy to deal with. No, it’s entirely due to annoyance that one’s favourite cuban stogies are illegal!

Amusing – but not amazing – that Tom S. would leap so quickly to suggest piracy, rather than honest trade.

Sir Francis Drake would be *so* proud of what we’ve done with the place!

(Or perhaps we need another blogger ethics panelâ„¢…)

Can this be a coincidence? Oil is found in Cuba and almost immediately Castro goes into the hospital? Hah, just more evidence for my case that the world really is controlled by a loose coalition of Masons, Gokudō, and Rosicrucians. The struggles we see today are mere manifestations of the inner struggles of this group. And if we nuked Transylvania, we’d be rid of them all.

Certainly, option 6 got a big boost tonight.

I’m going for 6 as well. Raul Castro is 75.

if oil really is fungible, then why does the issue of its control matter so much to the foreign policies of so many countries?

and not just america (see policy in saudi arabia, venezuela, kuwait/iraq etc), but also in russia, france (see esp their iraq policy pre-2003) and china (lately, their iran policy).

in terms of it being supplied as a commodity to you or i, sure, it is fungible. but it is not obvious to me that this remains true on a larger scale.

Having been on plenty of demonstrations that were described as ‘anti-globalisation’, I’m amazed that anybody with half a brain thinks this actually means the people on those demonstrations were opposed to any and all forms of international trade.
People are opposed to the terms of trade, they’re often opposed to international ownership/supply of some things that they think should be controlled within individual countries, some are opposed to the movement of industry from one country to another, or the trade in arms, or…, or…, or….
But the idea that something could be produced in one country and bought in another? Not so much.

Instead of pushing to the Baku oilfields, the Germans should have just realized, “Hey! Oil is fungible, we’ll just buy it on the open market!”. Idiot.

Errr, that was precisely what they were doing up to the day in June, 1941 that they invaded the Soviet Union. Literally on the day prior to the invasion, trainloads of Soviet exports including, yes, oil were crossing the demarcation line into German territory. Under the terms of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Germany and Russia concluded a huge trade agreement under which the USSR supplied the Germans with oil, grain, and chromium, and the Germans supplied them with manufactured goods. They only had a problem with oil supply because they decided, like Felix, that it doesn’t exist unless you park a flag on top of it or something. Until they tried to “control” it, they could buy all the oil they needed from Romania and the USSR.

Just another way in which invading Russia was really, really stupid.

Per slocum’s post. Just read “The J Curve” by Ian Bremmer (for a review). His take was that finding oil in Cuban waters would mean a reduction in the tourist industry in Cuba. Castro needs the foreign currency but if he can get it from oil instead of from all these pesky people who bring odd ideas into the country he’ll choke off one source and take it from the other.

It was well over a year ago that oil was found off Cuba, so it’s a pretty lame bit of coincidence, either that or “almost immediately” means something else here.

CNN.com is now reporting that Castro’s illness is due to “stress,” which suggests that he and Lindsay Lohan share the same publicist.

Literally on the day prior to the invasion, trainloads of Soviet exports including, yes, oil were crossing the demarcation line into German territory.

They were importing some Russian oil – but not enough:

At the outbreak of the war, Germany’s stockpiles of fuel consisted of a total of 15 million barrels. The campaigns in Norway, Holland, Belgium, and France added another 5 million barrels in booty, and imports from the Soviet Union accounted for 4 million barrels in 1940 and 1.6 million barrels in the first half of 1941. Yet a High Command study in May of 1941 noted that with monthly military requirements for 7.25 million barrels and imports and home production of only 5.35 million barrels, German stocks would be exhausted by August 1941. The 26 percent shortfall could only be made up with petroleum from Russia. The need to provide the lacking 1.9 million barrels per month and the urgency to gain possession of the Russian oil fields in the Caucasus mountains, together with Ukrainian grain and Donets coal, were thus prime elements in the German decision to invade the Soviet Union in June 1941.

the probability of communist government being replaced by something more reasonable when Castro is gone is diminished if the government suddenly has a major new source of funds

If by “reasonable” you mean pro-US I think you’ll be sorely disappointed in any case. If I was a Cuban of any ideological hue I wouldn’t be forgiving the US any time soon.

I think a post-Castro Cuban government is more, not less, likely to be anti-US if it is democratic – a principle that in other contexts (especially the ME) many Americans seem very slow to understand.

Jet–Whilst I agree that Cuban-Americans are very pro-US and anti-Castro, I doubt it has anything to do with their having “expert” knowledge. It was this group of Americans who gave “intelligence” to the US gov’t in the failed Bay of Pigs. Many come from well to do families understandably hoping to return to lost properties: I can understand their view, however much I don’t mind (but don’t care for) Castro.

If by “reasonable” you mean pro-US I think you’ll be sorely disappointed in any case. If I was a Cuban of any ideological hue I wouldn’t be forgiving the US any time soon.

To be honest, I don’t really give a crap about pro-US — what I mean by reasonable is less repressive and more democratic and also not inclined to support violent revolution elsewhere.

France and Germany, for example, are open, tolerant, and democratic even though public opinion is currently anti-US. If we ended up with a democratic Cuba whose citizens, on the whole, didn’t like the US, that’d be fine.