Hitchens (no, the other one) on Israel

by Chris Bertram on June 18, 2007

Matt Turner links to an article on contemporary Israel and its future . It is a remarkably even-handed, interesting, and generally civilized piece of journalism. All the more surprising, then, that the author is Christopher Hitchens’s ultra-conservative brother Peter and that it appears in Britain’s most repulsive newspaper, the Daily Mail.

{ 163 comments }

1

abb1 06.18.07 at 4:47 pm

Damn you for tricking me into reading this highly unpleasant stuff.

2

Laleh 06.18.07 at 4:54 pm

Hitchens cites “political correctness” (without the usual “gone mad”) as one of the barriers to ethnic cleansing of Palestinians! Even-handed?

3

franck 06.18.07 at 4:56 pm

Demographic arguments are unreliable, especially ones that seek to project out to 2050. One shouldn’t appeal to fear in the discussion about Israel Arabs. They shouldn’t be actively discriminated against, and it’s the responsibility of the government to end that. It’s simply the right thing to do. Jonathan Edelstein is particularly good on this issue.

The rest is just fatigue and gloom and doom. Things will happen a certain way or they won’t, but this need to pronounce something as complicated as a state a “failure” or a “success” beforehand, in some cases by decades is ridiculous.

4

abb1 06.18.07 at 5:16 pm

What’s the difference between a Jew and an Arab anyway? Or Arab and an Anglo-Saxon, for that matter. Maybe Peter Hitchens or Chris Bertram or some smart and educated commenter here could finally enlighten me.

5

cartesian 06.18.07 at 5:24 pm

“And then, in the increasingly realistic dreams of the cleverer Arabs…”

Ah yes, just the cleverer Arabs, of course. One can’t really talk about them having sensible beliefs without distinguishing the cleverer ones. One must simply be even-handed, mustn’t one?

6

Martin Bento 06.18.07 at 5:49 pm

I also have to ask; you were joking when you called this “even-handed”, right? However, leaving aside the author’s editorializing, I agree with the conclusion that the logical endpoint of the current situation is the demise of Israel. My own position, as I stated here recently, is not demographic, but military. Sooner or later Israel will face a more sophisticated version of the Hezbo missle attack, or a similarly-decentralized assault, and will be defenseless. So Israel must achieve peace to survive, all moral questions aside. I also realize that liberals are strongly biased against demographic arguments because they often support xenophobic positions, but that does not make them false. Are these Arabs going to convert to Judaism in large numbers? Is their birthrate going to suddenly drop? It is one thing to say the future is uncertain. That is always true, and one can always challenge the certainty of any prediction. Nonetheless, we all have to try to anticipate the future in order to function, so we must do our best, recognizing uncertainty but not refusing the logic of best guesses for that. It may be that there is an inherant contradiction between a cosmpolitan culture and a nation explicitly designed as a home for a specific ethnic group, organized democratically.

7

lemuel pitkin 06.18.07 at 6:14 pm

Weird article. Half of it is a very reasonable argument that Israel can survive as a modern, democratic state only if it abandons its exclusively Jewish identity. The other half is standard issue handwringing about political correctness. All mixed together, almost like some kind of exquisite corpse thing

8

Darius Jedburgh 06.18.07 at 6:18 pm

I was a bit surprised at the good press this got from Matthew and Chris. Three main reasons: (1) Hitchens says quite openly that Israel is a colonial phenomenon but also calls it “noble.” Given what he says about earlier forms of colonialism, the subtext seems to be that Israel was just unlucky to get caught out in a time when the denunciation of colonialism had become a fashionable lefty whinge. Surely that denunciation, fashionable or not, is directed at a genuine objective evil? (This point is independent of whether Hitchens concedes too much to Israel’s critics in saying that Israel is a colonial enterprise.) (2)Advocacy of the cause of the Palestinians as fundamentally the wronged party, justified or not, is quite common among people very well-acquainted with both sides of this story, including quite a few Israelis; whereas Hitchens tends to imply that it is a symptom of selective ignorance. (3) The wholesale disavowal of any instructive comparison with South Africa is kind of hard to swallow.

9

Doctor Slack 06.18.07 at 6:22 pm

I also realize that liberals are strongly biased against demographic arguments because they often support xenophobic positions

Liberals are strongly biased against straight projections of current demographic trends, because the exercise almost always turns out to be—to put it politely—misleading. (A less polite but perhaps more accurate description would be “bullshit.”) I’m actually surprised at the frequency with which that sort of thing gets a pass in the Israel debate, often from people whose alarms would be immediately set off in other contexts.

10

MQ 06.18.07 at 6:27 pm

Peter Hitchens has really been doing himself credit lately. Check out his excellent article arguing against the demonization of Iran:

http://www.amconmag.com/2007/2007_06_04/cover.html

This one is better than the Israel piece IMO.

11

ejh 06.18.07 at 6:35 pm

Israel can survive as a modern, democratic state only if it abandons its exclusively Jewish identity.

One might insert the word “become” in that phrase, in place of “survive”.

12

harry b 06.18.07 at 6:39 pm

IS some wierd, dorian-gray-like, process going on? (Hitchens P, iirc, had sensible objections to the Iraq war before it started).

13

franck 06.18.07 at 6:50 pm

Martin Bento,

The reason that doctor slack is right is that it is in fact quite possible that the Arab birthrate could quite easily suddenly drop. Birthrates rise and fall all the time, sometimes remarkably precipitously. (In fact, birth rates in many parts of the third world (Bangladesh, India, North Africa, etc.) have been declining precipitously in the last twenty years.) People also are known to emigrate to other countries. There are even, in rare cases, catastrophic declines in life expectancy (see much of the CIS, post 1987 or so). This is true in general, for all the population groups in Israel. It’s just hard to predict what is going to happen. So far at least, birth rates are falling for all population groups in Israel except Bedouins and Haredi, but that situation could change quickly due to outside events.

14

Matt Weiner 06.18.07 at 6:56 pm

the determined religious Jews who increasingly dominate Jerusalem, believing – with history on their side – that bad things happen to the Jewish people when they neglect their faith

Ugh.

15

Seth Edenbaum 06.18.07 at 6:57 pm

An op ed from Today’s NY Times

As Israel prepares to celebrate its 60th birthday next year, it’s time to update its national anthem, “Hatikvah” (“The Hope”). Only a single phrase needs to be changed: “nefesh Yehudi,” which means a Jewish soul, should be replaced with “nefesh Israeli,” an Israeli soul. Why tamper with a beautiful, stirring hymn? To solve what we might call the “Hatikvah” contradiction.

Israel strives to be both a Jewish state and a democracy, yet about a fifth of its population of 7.1 million people are not Jewish, but Arab Muslims, Christians and Druse. Among the emerging middle class, many Arabs are thriving. There are diplomats and judges, beauty queens and army officers, television anchors and members of the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament.

Hitchens: “The wholly false idea that Israel is another South Africa, a country founded on racial bigotry, is being spread – by respectable people such as former President Jimmy Carter.”

I’m with Laleh, but it’s better than might be expected. Still as i always say these days, when I hear the words “Jewish State” I switch in the word ‘German” and see how it reads.

CB and others haven’t gotten quite yet to that point of elementary logic.

16

Seth Edenbaum 06.18.07 at 6:59 pm

In the old days [sic] on this site I could insert a blockquote and it would hold until I closed it. Now I have to do it for every g-damn paragraph?
I’ll just have to start removing all the breaks.

17

lemuel pitkin 06.18.07 at 7:03 pm

CB and others haven’t gotten quite yet to that point of elementary logic.

Why do you say that? What’s Chris B written to suggest he supports less than full citizenship for Israeli Arabs?

18

richard 06.18.07 at 7:26 pm

The two articles have remarkably similar structures, right down to the point in each where he engages in a spirited bit of troll-baiting, before closing the paragraph by saying it’s interesting in itself, but it is not part of my story.

Also, I note irrelevantly that he looks like a child molester, or maybe Caligula, and that he doesn’t seem like he’s going to change his views and become normal any time soon.

19

Chris Bertram 06.18.07 at 7:28 pm

Darius, I hear what you say, but, notwithstanding I think it is an interesting piece of journalism and I bet you wouldn’t have guessed at Hitchens (P) as the author in 1000 guesses if simply provided with the text.

20

Seth Edenbaum 06.18.07 at 7:43 pm

“What’s Chris B written to suggest he supports less than full citizenship for Israeli Arabs?”

Israel can be either a democratic state or a Jewish one. It really is that simple.

(ejh put it well, above)

21

lemuel pitkin 06.18.07 at 7:54 pm

Israel can be either a democratic state or a Jewish one.

I agree. What makes you think Chris doesn’t?

22

ejh 06.18.07 at 8:03 pm

(ejh put it well, above)

Not that well: I should have added that we would also need to remove “as”.

23

franck 06.18.07 at 8:20 pm

Why do people think having an established religion is incompatible with democracy? I’m serious. Britain has an established religion (Anglicanism and Presbyterianism in Scotland). Do people think Britain is not a democracy?

One can definitely argue that certain policies of states with established religions are incompatible with democracy, but I’m not convinced having an established religion is ipso facto incompatible with democracy. I don’t see secularism as a requirement for democracy.

24

Keely 06.18.07 at 8:31 pm

Or, if not religion, how about sanguinity? Is Germany a democratic state?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_nationality_law

25

abb1 06.18.07 at 8:34 pm

#14 I switch in the word ‘German” and see how it reads.

Why are you so hung on the Germans? What about a state of the White People? At least they look different than the others, more or less, so that would’ve been a kind of racism with at least a veneer of rationality. ‘Germans’ and ‘Jews’ are totally fictitious, absurd concepts. Any bored Eastern European can go buy a birth certificate where he is a Jew, move to Israel the next day and instantly (doesn’t even need to learn that broken Aramaic dialect) become a victim of centuries of persecutions fighting for his survival against bloodthirsty Arab hordes. And no one will ever be able to prove otherwise. This is soooo stupid.

26

franck 06.18.07 at 8:48 pm

abb1,

So Israel has the most liberal immigration policy in the world – is that what you are saying?

27

abb1 06.18.07 at 8:51 pm

Yeah, yeah. Take it up with someone else, franck.

28

Keely 06.18.07 at 9:09 pm

29

richard 06.18.07 at 10:28 pm

I’m not convinced having an established religion is ipso facto incompatible with democracy

That rather depends on the religion in question, and its beliefs and practices (and on what you mean by democracy).

My understanding is that Judaism, or Jewishness or whatever is not directly comparable with Christiany, Islam, Hinduism etc because it is both a religion and an ethnicity (a fact which enables Hitchens to generalise about Jews and Arabs without immediately being taken to task for comparing chalk and cheese). I can imagine that this might cause problems in a multi-ethnic state, in which different ethno-religious groups have different rights – does that description fit Israel?

30

Seth Edenbaum 06.18.07 at 10:47 pm

Abb1: “Why are you so hung on the Germans?”
Because I’m a Jew.

Keely: “Or, if not religion, how about sanguinity? Is Germany a democratic state?”
It seems to be becoming one, but too slowly.

Keely you’re out of your depth. The Wikipedia page you linked to says “German citizenship is based primarily on the principle of Jus Sanguinis“. Follow the link. If you’ll remember the last time we had this little chat I ended it with this:

Disclaimer: It must be noted that reference to “French people” as an ethnic group is not present in French official terminology. Official institutes that gather statistics (such as INED or INSEE) do not use the category of “ethnic French” – whom some have translated here by “Français de souche”, a term more often associated with far-right Front National than with demography in France. The French census also does not use this category or any of which regarding ethnicity. According to Dominique Schnapper, member of the Constitutional Council of France, “The classical conception of the nation is that of an entity which, opposed to the ethnic group, affirms itself as an open community, the will to live together expressing itself by the acceptance of the rules of a unified public domain which transcends all particularisms”,[1] indicative of French citizenship.
I said then that I approved of the sentiment. I gather that you don’t.

German nationalism has a very specific and very unpleasant history. It deserves at it’s worst to stand as the definition of the dangers of what nationalism can become. It is both logical and ironic that Zionism is no more or less than a variant strain of Germanic racial ideology.
People who defend Israel’s right to a racial definition of the state must logically defend the same arguments in other countries: in England, Germany, Austria and France. Their attempts to avoid this fate will revolve in the end around the notion of Jewish exceptionalism, but many people do not have the courage, at this point to make that argument in public.
I think they should do so explicitly or change their position.

This is amusing
Florentines are Turks.
Send ‘em home!

31

Seth Edenbaum 06.18.07 at 10:48 pm

The Jews are a people, or the descendants of a people, not a religion.

32

Keely 06.18.07 at 11:48 pm

Seth – I’m not defending any of the various nationalisms, just noting their existence and similarities. It’s you who is advancing a Jewish exceptionalism. Of an unfavourable sort.

33

Robin 06.18.07 at 11:51 pm

Isn’t the issue whether the public and quasi-public institutions of a society unevenly confer goods, services, advantages and disadvantages on the basis of something ascriptive (inclusive of religion)? The exercise of Shar’ia in Pakistan, which formally disadvantages non-Muslims claims to legal restitution and justice against Muslims (I don’t recall the difference in the number of witnesses needed), is an example. There may be worse examples than Israel, which may also confer more rights on Israeli Arabs than say North Korea does on any North Korean subject, save Kim Jong Il, but the unequal distribution of rights in Israel is the issue.

In much of the debate, the unequal rights conferred on Israeli Arabs is framed by defenders of Israel purely as the right of non-Israeli Jews to automatic citizenship. And in light of the history of anti-Semetism, it’s explained in terms of Israel’s role as a refugee state. Critics point to the relatively uncontroversial fact that unequal rights seem to extend to a lot more than immigration rights to Jews.

This and not whether an established religion is compatible with democracy (the establishment of Anglicanism seems to have no real effect on non-Anglicans in the UK), or whether Judaism is an ethnicity or a religion* seems to be the heart of the matter.

*After all, discrimination against Christians in Pakistan or Hindus in Bangladesh is offensive much in the same way that the second class status of blacks in Rhodesia and South Africa (if not to the same degree in light of the later two’s colonialism and Nazi-like ideological practice respectively) or, perhaps better, Indians in Fiji.

34

Martin Bento 06.19.07 at 1:08 am

Yes, it is “quite possible” that demographic trends could suddenly change. Many things are quite possible, but that is not a good reason for supposing they are or will be so. It is, after all, also “quite possible” that the Jewish birthrate will decline. And I don’t see a dramatic decline in Israeli Arab life expectancy relative to Jewish happening in any way that would not be the responsibility of the Jewish majority and/or the Israeli state – what other way could an ethnically-specific decline occur? And it is important to remember that that is the relevant standard demographically – not whether the Arab birthrate is lower than it was previously, but whether it is lower than the current Jewish rate.

I think a reasonable standard is that the burden of argument – not of proof because that is unlikely to be possible, but the burden to make a case – lies with those who argue that what is happening now will change, not with those who argue that it will continue. It may well be possible to do so by looking at other swift demographic shifts, but one has to actually examine the relevant factors, not simply note that the future is uncertain and shifts have occurred before.

From what I can tell, the high declines in birthrates that many nations have seen in the modern era seems to correlate with some general factors, including: a) higher material living standards, b) secularization of culture, c) formal education, especially of women. I think a more intelligent response to the demographic challenge to a Jewish state posed by a growing non-Jewish minority than denial is to ask if these conditions are being or will be met for the Arab minority. If they are, or if one proposes that they should be, that is not denial of the demographic challenge but a proposed way to meet it.

And the only way, I see. If we accept the demographic challenge as real, what can Israel do in response:

1) It can encourage education, secularization, and prosperity for the Arab minority. There will be some resistance to this, notably its feminist aspects, but Turkey and other states show that Islamic cultures can operate in modernity. There are deep traditions in Islam that mitigate against it, but this is also true or Judaism and Christianity; these things can be overcome.

2) They can try to suppress the demographic challenge through forced expulsion, sterilization, compelled abortion, compelled interracial reproduction, or outright slaughter – that is to say by genocide, under current UN definition.

3) They can permit the demographic challenge to run its course, but still keep the bulk of actual power in Jewish hands, even as Jews become a numeric minority. This would mean becoming an apartheid state full stop.

I think 2 and 3 are non-starters. The world would not tolerate them, the world has too much at stake in the region (oil) to simply overlook them, and Israel cannot defy the world. That is even assuming Israel could stomach actions so dramatically at odds with its own moral rationale, which I doubt. So that leaves 1. Ironically, this might eliminate the demographic challenge, as the improving conditions of the Arabs leads them to reproduce less. But the future is uncertain in this respect too, so there would be some risk here of losing the Jewish majority. More probable, I imagine, is a continued Jewish majority, but a less strong one than exists now.

Not that I think it matters much now. Demographic challenge? Israel should live so long. Like I said, I give the country 5 years, 10 at the outside, if it does not come to terms with the region. And if it does, and a reasonable Palestinian state emerges, there may be some spontaneous emigration to relieve demographic pressure too. So I don’t think demography is the crux right now.

35

Seth Edenbaum 06.19.07 at 1:26 am

robin, you’re comparing “immigration rights to Jews” from other parts of the world to “immigration rights” to those who were thrown off their land of their birth in what is now Israel. Israel refers to the former as the “law of return” and offers this right to people such as me, whose connection to the area is of only slightly more recent vintage than the Florentine’s to Anatolia, and considers the right of the Palestinians as null and void.—-
Once again Keely, you imagine I defend German blood nationalism, though I’ve said I find it offensive. I live in a multiethnic country, in Queens NY.

An astounding 46% of Queens residents were born outside of the U.S. That’s just over one million people (1,028,339). And foreign-born residents of Queens were born in over 100 nations, which makes Queens the most diverse place in the world. Other counties in the U.S. have greater percentages of foreign-born residents, but nowhere else do they represent so many different homelands, ethnicities, and cultures.
We even have our own General Assembly. [NY Times article here]
Interestingly, I live in a neighborhood full of traditions that is also what you could call a very ‘traditional’ neighborhood. People get along very well. The fact that the traditions may all be different from one another doesn’t seem to bother people much. It’s worth studying.
In the long run the tendency of the newer generations of immigrants to maintain ties to their homelands will be seen as one of the factors in the creation of an American social democracy.
Just so you know.

36

Seth Edenbaum 06.19.07 at 2:22 am

On Israel the US and Hamas I posted this at TPM Starbucks, but I might as well cross post it here. Badger gets full credit, I’m only cutting and pasting:
From today’s Al-Quds al-Arabi:
as translated by Badger at Arab Links

[We] learned from sources working for NGOs in Palestine yesterday that they have received from the USAID organization a request for them to present large-scale project proposals for financing [by USAID] in the West Bank on an accelerated basis. According to these sources, USAID …requested, less than 12 hours after the appointment of Dr Salam Fayadh to form an emergency government, ideas for huge projects to be carried out in the West Bank, on condition that these projects be capable of showing quick results in the life of people in the West Bank and that they involve large numbers of Palestinian workers. The sources told [us] that these are [supposed to be] projects in which it will be apparent that there is large-scale American funding for improvements in the life of the people of the West Bank, and that this [American connection to the quick improvements] should be readily apparent to the eye and tangible on the ground…. The sources said what is being asked of them is to convince the people of the West Bank that they are fortunate having the government of Fayadh and the decision of Abbas to form this government, in contrast to Hamas which controls Gaza. Concerning the possibility of carrying out any projects in the Gaza Strip, sources who asked not to be identified by name said they are being told it is not allowed to let even one dollar reach the Gaza Strip.
Badger comments:
Hijacking of economic aid to serve the anti-Hamas agenda isn’t new. In the document headed “Action Plan” (of US authorship, written sometime in February of this year) published in the Jordanian paper Al-Majd last month, there is an elaborate set of plans for enhancing the strength and reputation of the Abbas group at the expense of the elected Hamas government, and the scheme was exactly the same then as it is now: Using a variety of means to bolster Fatah and weaken Hamas, ahead of hoped-for new elections in fall 2007.

Read the whole thing. Badger titles the post Economics for the 21st century

37

Martin Bento 06.19.07 at 2:36 am

Seth, it sounds to me like a good approach. If we had handled Iraq this way, it might have come off reasonably well, but we had to have a grand free market experiment, and we are, even still, pushing for permanent bases and the oil, so the people rightly do not trust us. The notion that the Gaza takeover could actually be to US/Israel advantage because it separates Fatah from Hamas is quite interesting.

38

Keith 06.19.07 at 2:41 am

You mean… Christopher Hitchens is the Good one? Fucking Hell,i need a drink…

39

ed 06.19.07 at 2:49 am

I’m no longer so sure if it would be a bad thing, from a purely Israeli Jewish perspective, to just make the Palestinian Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza Israeli citizens, with votes in Israeli elections. Their political organizations (Hamas, Fatah) coudl then compete in those elections, provided they met the requirements of the Israeli constitution (which is doubtful at least in the case of Hamas).

The fear is that if this was done, non-Jews would have a voting majority in Israel, and would vote to end the Jewish character of the state, such as by changing the immigration laws, or even put in anti-semetic measures. But if this was done tommorow, Jews would still have a voting majority. As others have pointed out, these demographic projections are just projections, and I think a large number of Palestinian Arabs are not of voting age. Also, there is a strong correlation between high birth rates and lack of education and opportunity, and I suspect that if the Israeli government made an effort to treat the Arabs under its rule as full citizens, these demographic trends might reverse. Also, I don’t think the Arabs are politically homogenous and would not necessarily form a unified voting block; after all many Arabs who already are citizens in Israel vote for Jewish led political parties.

The advantage of this policy is that it would end the main grievance of the people in the occupied territories, that they basically are stateless people with few legal rights. There would be no need to find an acceptable “negotiating partner” and no need to haggle over boundaries. The settlements could even stay. There would be no need to worry about giving up any military advantages that the West Bank supposedly gives Israel.

The longer the Israeli government waits to do something like this, the less of a chance of this policy succeeding, but this is even more true of the two state solution.

40

Martin Bento 06.19.07 at 2:57 am

The problem I see with that Ed is that it asks the Israeli’s to risk everything based on things that are highly uncertain. The demographic projections are just projections, and they might not pan out, but who’s going to bet on them not panning out. The Palestinians might not unite politically against the Jews, but they might well – anti-Jewish feeling seems to unite a lot of otherwise disparate groups in the Middle East. And predictions of Palestinian demographics based on people already born but not yet mature are pretty certain unless you’re going to either kill or expel those people, which would undermine the whole nature of your proposal.

41

Lord Acton 06.19.07 at 3:20 am

Interesting stuff.

But where does Hitchens find the missing
“Palestinian Million”?

pro-Israeli demographers looking at the
same population statistics concluded that
the Palestinian “official” numbers were – at a minimum – one million people higher
than the “real” rate.

Not to mention the hundreds of thousands
of Israelis who have … ummm … immigrated
to the USA. Most of them say they will
return to Israel if either of two things
happen. Actual Peace breaking out between
Israel and the 20 odd Arab countries that
still continue to insist that Israel doesn’t
exist. Of a major war breaking out between
Israel and those non-existent 20 odd Arab
countries.

Dream on guys.

There is a more chance of an UK academic
boycott forcing the Israeli government
to change it’s policies than that of the
Palestinian “womb” to erase the Jewish
demographic majority.

At least Hitchens mentions that Austrailia
and New Zealand too, have “no right to exist”.
Pity he didn’t mention the same about English
rule of Wales, Scotlan, Northen Ireland,
Gibralter, Diego Garcia and the Malvinas.

42

Keely 06.19.07 at 4:36 am

Seth – I accept that you oppose German “blood nationalism”. A principled position. But if you’re boycotting Germany or engaging in other anti-German agitation over their citizenship policies, I seem to have missed it.

43

Seth Edenbaum 06.19.07 at 4:56 am

Read the goddamn post, and the comments too
Badger quotes Mark Perry, of Conflicts Forum

“So here is what will happen. The United States will fail to deliver. Some money will trickle in, but not nearly enough. The little that does trickle in will be spent unwisely. Israeli may remove some outposts, but only a few, and the settlements will continue to expand and settler roads will continue to be built and Palestinians will continue to die. Israelis will die too. A Palestinian security guard will be trained and it will march smartly through the streets of Ramallah. If it should exchange fire with a militia led by Hamas it will just as smartly be defeated. And if there is an election in “Fatahstine,” Hamas will win, while at the White House, Tony Snow will talk about how the outcome was engineered in Tehran. And nineteen months from now, in the waning days of the Bush Administration — with American foreign policy in tatters — Elliott Abrams and Keith Dayton will proudly stand alongside a smiling President Bush as he honors them, the newest recipients of the Medal of Freedom.”

44

magistra 06.19.07 at 6:23 am

Hitchens’ comments fit in with a recent Channel 4 programme by Rod Liddle (Love Thy Neighbour), which was also, coming from a pro-Israeli stand-point, getting extremely unhappy about Israel’s treatment of Palestinians (although this focused more on the Occupied Territories). It suggests that however much claims about ‘no apartheid’ may be justified in theory and law, the facts on the ground (such as who gets access to water and ‘settler-only’ roads) strongly suggest its existence. (Israel is not unique in such discrimination, but there are few other ‘Western’ states where it is quite so blatant).

As for Israel’s immigration laws, how do supporters of this deal with the Sammy Davis, Jr question? Why should Sammy Davis, Jr (as a convert to Judaism) have a better right to live in Israel than a non-Jew who grew up in the territory?

45

gr 06.19.07 at 6:46 am

As a German, I’d be rather interested to hear by what standard Germany is not a democratic country?

46

richard 06.19.07 at 10:26 am

re: 29.
“The classical conception of the nation is that of an entity which, opposed to the ethnic group, affirms itself as an open community, the will to live together expressing itself by the acceptance of the rules of a unified public domain which transcends all particularisms” … I said then that I approved of the sentiment.

I agree, it’s an absolutely beautiful sentiment. Imagine if such an entity existed. A nationality and state that was actually elective, rather than ascriptive, which you could choose to enter and leave freely and which contained no further subdivisions, by status, race, language group, occupation, religion or whatever. Of course, that implies an open policy for migration and an open labour market, otherwise people wouldn’t really be able to vote with their feet – and, obviously, a choice of other nations which shared the same definition, otherwise the affirmation and will described above wouldn’t have any meaning in practice, beyond some sort of ritual meaning, which serves to obscure actual relations. Note that there’s no appeal to territory here: in the ideal case you’d have something like a free market in subscription governments, in which you and your neighbours could participate in separate communities of laws, according to your tastes, and switch law providers as needed,

47

franck 06.19.07 at 1:48 pm

martin bento,

I don’t know how the demographics of Israel/Palestine will play out ultimately. But we do know one thing – total fertility rates do not remain constant. The long-term trend in TFR in most of the world is strongly negative. I don’t see any evidence why we would expect the ratio of TFRs of all the population groups in Israel to remain the same for the next thirty or forty years.

In fact, right now the Arab Muslim TFR is decreasing faster than the “Jewish” TFR, but who knows if that will continue. Things like this simply can’t be counted on.

This focus on demography to lift the burden of thought or strategy from one’s shoulders is ridiculous.

Your desire for a final end is understandable, but wrongheaded. History will continue, and the far more likely case is that Israel will continue to exist, as will the Palestinians, eventually culminating in some number of small states in the area.

48

Seth Edenbaum 06.19.07 at 2:22 pm

I don’t have the patience for this but here goes:
Richard, the discussion is not the state itself but citizenship and Jus sanguinis. That “beautiful sentiment” we both quoted was not present until recently in German law. I take it for granted that anyone calling himself a liberal should agree that it should be universal.
Absent the crimes of the occupation (and allowing the irony that Israel is Palestine) the question of Turks and Algerians in Germany and France are analogous to that of Arabs in Israel.
In the best light standard Israeli policies within its borders parallel those that liberals refuse to defend in their own countries.
There is no liberal argument for an Israel outside it’s existence as a binational state.

franck, in that last paragraph you give us no observations only wishes,

49

Martin Bento 06.19.07 at 2:27 pm

franck, I looked at the current demography and, in the brief manner befitting a blog comment, looked at what factors could make this work out in various different ways and what options Israel had to respond to the trends. That is explicitly embracing both thought and strategy; saying that we don’t know what will happen with regards to demography explicitly rules out strategy and pretty much thought on the question as well, as it is a call for us not to think about the question.

It is true that I would like to see the problems solved or at least lessened. I do not regard the current situation as sustainable, and what can’t go on won’t. Now, you may not agree with my pessimistic assessment of Israel’s future if things go on as they are, but I have given some rationale for my position, while you are simply asserting yours (that it is more likely that Israel will go on and so will the Palestinians). I never said “history” would end, whatever that might even mean, so that is a straw man. For a particular state, in this case Israel, to end, is not an unusual event historically.

50

franck 06.19.07 at 2:54 pm

martin bento,

The problem with your analysis is that it doesn’t actually deal with the demography as we presently understand it. Right now, the Arab Muslim birth rate is dropping quickly: the numbers went from 3.3% to 2.5% in the last seven years. The Jewish birth rate is 1.4%, but actually grew at something like 3% due to immigration. None of these population groups are monolithic – Christian Arabs have very low birth rates, Muslims have higher, and Bedouins have very high birth rates. That’s also true on the Jewish side: secular Jews have low birth rates, religious ones have higher birth rates, and Haredi have extremely high birth rates.

But it isn’t just birth rates. If there was a pronounced increase in immigration to Israel by Jews, then the demography argument goes out the window, especially if half of the newcomers are Haredi and maintain their high birth rates.

You have no clue what the population structure of Israel will look like in thirty years, and neither do I. Israel is much harder to predict than other countries precisely because it has the capability for massive immigration or emigration.

So I think basing your arguments on demography, which seems to be what you are doing, to be wrongheaded.

I think it is most likely Israel will survive because it is an internationally recognized state with a powerful military and a strong economy. Looking back at the course of history, states like that tend to survive.

It is in fact quite unusual for states to disappear. What is more usual is for new states to appear as empires disband. The long-term trend is for ever more new states.

51

dsquared 06.19.07 at 3:59 pm

Why should Sammy Davis, Jr (as a convert to Judaism) have a better right to live in Israel than a non-Jew who grew up in the territory?

Converting to the Jewish religion does not get you the right to Israeli citizenship, HTH.

52

Zanjabil 06.19.07 at 4:59 pm

Hmm, so many commenters here using the term “Arab Israelis”. Actually they are called “Palestinians”. It is a Zionist propaganda trick to call the indigenous population of Palestine “Arabs”. As if in denial of their Palestinian identity…

I understand that Jews who convert to Christianity or Islam forfeit their “right of return” to Israel. So, despite the myth, the Israeli definition of who is a Jew is not about genes, but rather culture and religion.

In 1948 one million Palestinians were expelled from their ancestral homeland in what could only be called in modern terms ethnic cleansing. Israeli soldiers have gone on record describing how their officers raped Palestinian women then killed them, and crushed babies’ skulls with sticks. These are the foundations of the Israeli state.

See If Americans Knew

53

Christmas 06.19.07 at 5:44 pm

Converting to the Jewish religion does not get you the right to Israeli citizenship, HTH.

No, it doesn’t. But the actual standard – broad enough to include anyone who has a single Jewish grandparent, while still excluding millions of non-Jews living under Israeli control or driven from the country since 1948 – isn’t significantly more just.

54

luc 06.19.07 at 6:46 pm

HTH? It confuses me. I don’t really want to know the ins and outs of this, but from the Israeli law of return as found on the internet:

“4B. For the purposes of this Law, “Jew” means a person who was born of a Jewish mother or has become converted to Judaism and who is not a member of another religion.”

But conversion alone is not enough, You’ll have to move to Israel too, to get Israeli citizenship.

55

Glorious Godfrey 06.19.07 at 7:10 pm

Seth:

Some mild nitpicking, comin’ up.

Richard, the discussion is not the state itself but citizenship and Jus sanguinis. That “beautiful sentiment” we both quoted was not present until recently in German law. I take it for granted that anyone calling himself a liberal should agree that it should be universal.

The thing about ius sanguinis in Germany is somewhat less linear than you appear to think.

Not that I want to defend the Krauties from ominous charges of racism et al much, mind. Love the place to bits but, the history being chequered and national pride being bollox and all, it does the aboriginals good to keep them on their toes. Still, I’m a sucker for all that fact-based business.

I’ll be crap with the letter but according to my lights I’ll be nailing the spirit of this.

Before 1913, there was no unified nationality law. Some parts of Germany were quite liberal in this point, in fact. Then came this 1913 law bit ( ius sanguinis a patre , to the hilt). Then the Nazis. Then, after the war, all Nazi changes to the 1913 law were cancelled, but the law itself was retained. It had to do mostly with international law. The Federal Republic was the legal successor of the Wilhelminian empire, and by sticking to the old law, it was still possible to define the people of East Germany as German citizens. A new Wessi law that had insisted on extending the love to the Ossis would have been against international law, because no state can declare the whole people of another state its nationals. So it was a sort of legal standoff that lasted for as long as the country was divided.

After the 1999 law, the German system is in line with Western practice, pretty much. And you’ll ask, what took it so long after reunification to change the law? What can I say, progressive stuff, meet resistance; resistance, meet progressive stuff.

On a related note, the definition of “ethnic German” in the post-war period was not 100% “W00T he has the blood of Arminius wtf 1“. It was about being displaced or otherwise deprived of citizenship rights on account of being of German descent and so. Again, pressed the right buttons with the whingey set, accounted for the unfinished business of the massive deportations at the end of WWII, and fomented dissidence in the commie block. It started as an interim thing right after the war (buried in Article 116 of the Basic Law) and never quite got away.

Not that it couldn’t backfire, mind. Ceausescu was cash-strapped and sold his Krauts in droves. The fucker said that it made more business sense to educate minority Germans than to raise pigs. It’s an urban legend but I like it all the same. Hahaha what a funny motherfucker, the video of his execution still cracks me up.

Plus, just to focus the mind and all, I’ll add that “nationality” and “citizenship” get mixed up all the time, but it’s useful to distinguish them. Think of nationality as a traditional prerequisite to the enjoyment of the full benefits of citizenship/integration, and of those benefits in turn as something that can acquire a trans-national dimension these days (highly-qualified, travelling folks, that kind of shit). There must be something about it but can’t be arsed to google.

Absent the crimes of the occupation (and allowing the irony that Israel is Palestine) the question of Turks and Algerians in Germany and France are analogous to that of Arabs in Israel.

In principle, why yes. You can argue for there being a difference of degree, though. I mean, I live in Berlin, and during the 2006 World Cup everybody was, basically, making a fucking bloody racket to support the deutsche Elf . Sort of rubbish, you wanted to get some sleep. Folks of Turkish or Arab descent? The loudest of the lot.

But yeah, long ways to go yet, all over the “free” world. Way things are shaping up, “open communities” are on par with magic jelly beans.

56

Glorious Godfrey 06.19.07 at 7:10 pm

Ceauşescu. Good to know that Crooked Timber supports the squiggly S thing. Looks proper worldly and multiculti and all.

57

Martin Bento 06.19.07 at 7:12 pm

franck, up to now, you’ve made essentially two arguments. One is the endorsement of Dr. Slack’s view that projective demographic arguments are always wrong, and the other that the Israeli situation specifically is intractable. Now, we seem to be down to the latter, which is fair enough.

It is always possible to undermine a theory by postulating something contrary to its assumptions. For example, the argument that Social Security has long-run viability – itself largely a theory of demographic projection, just not a racial or ethnic one – is based on assumptions about long-term economic growth and long-term advances in life expectancy, more-or-less expecting both to follow established trends. If either does not, said projections could be in trouble, or, conversely, too pessimistic. And it is quite possible that either or both of these assumptions are wrong, and it is legitimate to point out that the argument for SS viability is based on highly uncertain projections. In fact, I think it entirely fair to say that unequivocal statements that SS will or will not be viable in 40 years are claiming a spurious certainty about the future. If one wants to reject the argument, though, one has an obligation to say why and how one of these variables is likely to change. I actually think the economic growth assumption is probably wrong because of global warming and oil depletion, though those are arguments the Republicans cannot or will not make. But if I want to attack that projection, I have to give a reason (as I just did) why I think that particular variable will change. Why would there be a significant increase in Jewish immigration to Israel at this point?

In any case, that’s probably a secondary matter, as, like I said, I think Israel has more immediate problems. The long-term trend is not for empires to disappear; all had to appear before they disappeared. The last century or so has just seen some European empires dissolve. A look at the map before those empires were established shows much of the world lacking “nations” in the modern sense, but nonetheless having units of political organization, many of which no longer exist or are no longer sovereign.

Israel may be internationally recognized, but virtually all extent states are. Unlike almost all others, Israel’s right to exist is controversial. So its level of recognition is lower than most. I believed in the strength of its military too, till I saw what Hezbollah did to it. It is too easy to see a similar attack with guided missiles, perhaps a bit better in payload and range. I’ve yet to see anyone argue why such a thing is unlikely, or how Israel can defend against it if it occurs. A strong military doesn’t matter if it cannot protect you against a real, existential threat.

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Doctor Slack 06.19.07 at 7:32 pm

franck, up to now, you’ve made essentially two arguments.

No he hasn’t. He’s pointed out rather more specifically than I did (in the latter post with Israel-specific examples) some reasons why straight projections are an intellectually lazy habit that typically don’t tell us much of anything. And quite persuasively so, I think.

You’re basically right that it’s a good plan for Israel in the long term not to try to maintain Arabs as an underclass. But if you’re going to make that argument on “demographic” grounds, you need to provide some positive reason to assume the trends you’re talking about will hold long enough to matter in the various scenarios you’re discussing. It’s not on to just blithely assume they will and expect others to play along with you, particularly when it’s plain that just that kind of sloppy thinking is undergirding the intransigence of at least some of the parties to the conflict in question.

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Doctor Slack 06.19.07 at 7:39 pm

Unlike almost all others, Israel’s right to exist is controversial.

This, BTW, is another largely meaningless routine bromide of Israel debate which should be retired. It’s basically a form of question-begging about whether Israel would somehow “cease to exist” if it ceased to engage in the various activities that arouse international controversy.

60

Seth Edenbaum 06.19.07 at 7:59 pm

As far as life in Germany and German culture are concerned you all might be (should be) interested in this post by Jason Stanley at Leiterreports.

61

Jim S. 06.19.07 at 9:06 pm

Nice post Seth however: would not immigrants keeping their ties to their old homelands lead to national fragmentation? Does not America have a right to it’s own (not worse not better just different)identity? And would not such ties lead to, say, Poles demand that the United States continue the Cold War to the bitter end for the sake of Poland? Just asking.

62

Seth Edenbaum 06.19.07 at 9:23 pm

“would not immigrants keeping their ties to their old homelands lead to national fragmentation?”

No. The immigrants here are also tied to one another, and to their new homeland. They’re the only cosmopolitans this country has. As one (Bulgarian) girl told me, during a discussion of whether Manhattanites would take over as they have in Brooklyn:
“I hope not. I like the diversity.”

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Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 12:32 am

One sign of the way things are going is that in Israel itself – not even counting the occupied Arab zones of the West Bank and Gaza – the most popular boy’s name is now Muhammad.

This remark, all by itself, more or less deflates the alarmist tone of the article for me. It’s been a wry and proverbial Israeli truism at least since the mid-1970s when I first heard it, and probably has been true ever since statehood in 1948 (and, therefore, since the Umayyads).

The commonest Israeli surname is Cohen—and would probably remain so after even a bloody demographic inversion on the scale of Lebanon 1975-90. (These two facts in tandem frame an amusing counterexample in elementary statistical inference.)

Nothing to see here, truly. The Palestinian birthrate story is really all about Ulster, sheer projection.

64

Lord Acton 06.20.07 at 1:23 am

zanjibal uses the Arab propaganda figure of
One Million Palestinians forced from Israel
in 1948. A typically highly inflated figure.

An analysis of population by subdistricts and villages, using the data of the Palestine Remembered Web site, shows that there were about 735,000 Muslim and Christian Arabs in Palestine in 1948. There would not have been more than 620,000 refugees in 1949 if these figures are correct, since the Israeli census showed 156,000 non-Jews living in Palestine in November 1948, of whom about 14,000 were Druze.

While revisionist historians claim every single
Arab was forced from Israel, contemporary
news reports differ widely from that viewpoint.

Notice the poster makes no mention what so ever
of the 850,000 Jews who were ethnically cleansed
from their homes by Arab dictators.

Watch for the straw man response that they all
left voluntarily. Yeah, right. With few
possessions and their property stolen from
them they were lucky to escape with their
lives.

And note the response of the Israelis, welcoming
them as citizens.

The Arabs who left Israel were not so
fortunate, their brother Arabs choose
to keep them in camps for 60 years as
bargaining chips.

65

Seth Edenbaum 06.20.07 at 2:08 am

The demographics themselves don’t matter, idiots. The fact that there’s a debate over them is what’s offensive. It’s not about demogrphics, it’s about racism.

The issues concern threats to “the jewish nature of the state”, and at this point… all together now…
let’s plug in the word “German” and see who doesn’t need to fight the urge to puke.

My god how hard you all work to avoid the issues at hand.

66

Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 2:47 am

The demographics themselves don’t matter, idiots.

Could we have a bit of moderation here, please? (Either sort.)

The fact that there’s a debate over them is what’s offensive.

When the Jewish science minister of any neighboring parliamentary state gets his cabinet meeting rescheduled around a minority religious fast, the line between offense and defense may be a bit sharper.

67

Maurice Motamed 06.20.07 at 3:10 am

“”I fail to understand how an enlightened, sane Jew allows himself to ask a Muslim person with a different language and culture, to sing an anthem that was written for Jews only.”
Raleb Majadele

See comment 15 above. I take it you’re in agreement with the author of the op ed. So what’s your opinion on the issue of a binational state?

68

Doctor Slack 06.20.07 at 3:15 am

My god how hard you all work to avoid the issues at hand.

Xenophobic arguments usually come with two barrels: a) intensive and distorted fear-mongering about the likely inclinations of the group(s) in question, and b) the cooking and abuse of statistics to buttress the fear-mongering. In a more perfect world, arguing against a) would be sufficient and we could ignore b) altogether. Unfortunately, the actual world doesn’t function that way.

69

Seth Edenbaum 06.20.07 at 3:15 am

oy.
I made a wise-ass comment with a trick name and now it’s in moderation hell.
I’ll leave it at that. I’m done.

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Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 3:20 am

It’s not about demographics, it’s about racism.

Which is why Israeli popular culture is so mean and unsympathetic to guest workers from faraway countries.

The facile cry of racism might stick if it came from another country that has brought people out of Africa to make them free.

71

Robin 06.20.07 at 3:30 am

Seth, I was making no such comparison (the immigration rights of Jews to non-Jewish Arabs born but expelled and displaced). The right of return is a right, even if it seems to be one which will never be allowed to be exercised.

I was suggesting rather that unequal rights in Israel extend beyond the issue of a right to immigrate to Israel, e.g., access to land, etc.

72

Doctor Slack 06.20.07 at 3:36 am

Oh God, now we’re pretending that Israel has no racism problem? Using the Falashas of all f*cking examples? Spare me.

73

Martin Bento 06.20.07 at 5:41 am

First of all, can we please all try to keep the rancor down? Israel/Palestine threads round here routinely get shut down for this reason, and I think it is well worth talking these issues out.

Dr. Slack, if the objection to demographic projections is simply that such are uncertain, they are not necessarily any more likely to be in error in one direction than the other. “Might Jewish immigration increase?” asks franck. Yes, and it might also decrease – on current conditions, one could well see why it might, or might even become a net outflow – in which case the demographic challenge case is stronger than stated. If the objection is random variations, then the continuation of current trends should be near the center of the spectrum of possibilities – that’s what one would expect from simple deviation from a trend. If it is at one or another extreme, one should give an argument why this would be so.

At the outset of this discussion, I said liberals were biased against projective demographic arguments because they don’t like the policy prescriptions that frequently accompany them. By invoking the kind of thinking “undergirding the intransigence of at least some of the parties to the conflict in question”, I think you have proved my point.

Although, as an argument against such parties, I think my position works better than simply disputing their premise. Grant the premise and walk them through the possible outcomes. I list a) assimilation, b) genocide (counting expulsion under genocide; otherwise, you could give it a separate category, but I don’t think that changes anything), and c) apartheid. I did leave one out: d) failure, that is to say, accept that Israel will no longer be a specifically Jewish nation, but will instead be a nation where Jews are potentially a minority and where another culture may come to dominate, which would be “failure” of the Zionist objective, regardless of whether one regards such objective as legitimate. That’s it, right? Is there any response that does not fall into one of these broad categories? Well, the right, and I imagine the Jewish Israeli public generally, wants desperately to avoid d, and the international community will not tolerate b or c. That leaves a. Putting it this starkly makes clear that the right-wing solutions are non-starters, which disputing the premise does not.

As for the right of Israel to exist being controversial, do you think it is not? Hasn’t Israel had to fight for it tooth and nail through the various peace negotiations? Hasn’t the President of Iran explicitly denied it? Did not the UN conference on racism come almost to a halt a few years ago over the insistence that Zionism be characterized as racism, a position that implicitly delegitimizes Israel, as the UN has a strongly-established position against tolerance of officially-sanctioned racism?

I suppose I should state my own position here. I think the case for establishing the state of Israel in the Middle East was very weak. However, history is full of injustices, and, in general, I see no redress for them. For me, the question is: given the current situation – because it is given – what course forward causes the least human suffering, for the nation of Israel to continue as a Jewish entity or for it to be subsumed into some larger whole, and under all the scenarios I can see as realistic the answer has been the former. So I am a Zionist, but a provisional, not an absolute, one. If the cost of maintaining Israel as is is going to be the decimation of the Middle East, however, then I am looking for the most humane way out of the Zionist experiment. And if the US goes to war with Iran at least partly over potential nukes that do not pose a threat to the US, but do to Israel, decimation of the Middle East is on the table.

I was also going to respond to Seth, but he seems to have decided to drop out of the discussion. A shame.

74

Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 5:55 am

Falashas

Etyopim. Please don’t be rude, even in ignorance.

75

Doctor Slack 06.20.07 at 6:21 am

Please don’t be rude, even in ignorance.

“Not the preferred nomenclature,” as Walter Sobchak would say. A bit rich on some levels coming from someone who just tried to adduce Ethiopian Jewry as a defense against the supposedly “facile” charge of racism, but a reasonable point nonetheless.

Martin, your post deserves a full answer and I’m en route to bed. (You probably won’t be surprised to find I disagree with you.) I’ll get back to you tomorrow.

76

Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 6:25 am

… pretending that Israel has no racism problem?

No, not that. Merely that a country whose president and deputy PM were both born in Iran, whose housing and health ministers were born in Morocco, whose infrastructure minister was born in Iraq, whose justice minister is a seventh-generation Jerusalemite, and whose science minister was born in a Galilee Arab village divided by the 1949 armistice, has a nuanced racism problem that more homogeneous countries are poorly poised to judge.

77

abb1 06.20.07 at 6:28 am

The fact that there’s a debate over them [demographics] is what’s offensive.

Now, that’s exactly right.

I still don’t understand how educated people here can call this kinda stuff “generally civilized”. It’s exactly the opposite, generally uncivilized. Same, exactly the same kind of concern expressed by a Southern good ol’ boy over, say, Latinos’ high birth rate and white people becoming a minority would’ve been immediately condemned. Someone’s messing with your heads, professors.

78

Martin Bento 06.20.07 at 6:30 am

Joshua, that’s interesting. Are Jews from Europe or the US well-represented in the governing elite as well?

79

Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 6:34 am

… someone who just tried to adduce Ethiopian Jewry …

I was in Rehovot on the shabbat when Operation Solomon was in the air, and I remember the rumors flying through the streets – “We saved the Beta Israel!” “How many?” “All of them!” People were literally crying with joy, and the whole nation was glued to the TV just after the sabbath when the news came on.

The two kids I tutored in physics have done pretty well. I would give you email addresses so you could get first-hand testimony, if I cared enough about your opinion to impose on them.

80

Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 6:51 am

Joshua, that’s interesting. Are Jews from Europe or the US well-represented in the governing elite as well?

US/UK/Canada, no. Israelis rightly suspect the anglo-saxonim of enthusiasm, and leave them to run the earnest causes (civil rights, anti-littering, rape crisis counseling, gay adoption, Jewish pluralism) while pragmatists from other climes handle the daily give-and-take. I don’t think there is any other bloc as large as the English-speakers (150k+), of any religion or ethnicity, that lacks a sitting Knesset member.

Europe, certainly. The Russians are all over the immigration/absorption portfolio, and the black-hat parties have a substantial immigrant contingent from Eastern Europe as well. And of course the older sabras, now at least half of the Knesset, are predominantly from Poland, Romania, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary one or two generations back. Rehovot has had Yemenite Jews since before 1917, and one of them was mayor there recently, but pre-1948 that’s an exception to the Slavic norm. Not many Germans; the Zionist enterprise was built on Tsarist, not Nazi, antisemitism.

81

Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 7:10 am

Oh, and not to be pissy about it, but how many Turks are on the short list for German chancellor these days? Isn’t the UK long overdue for a Pakistani PM? (Or a Chinese one, after a decade of full British citizenship for five million HK voters—oops, where did they go?) And how’s that “Draft Condi” thing coming along?

82

Doctor Slack 06.20.07 at 7:35 am

Joshua: has a nuanced racism problem that more homogeneous countries are poorly poised to judge.

Okay, I’m not sure exactly which “more homogenous” countries you’re getting at, here. Basically I’m getting the sense that you’re starting to twist yourself into knots defending the initial statement.

People were literally crying with joy . . .

History is just one damned thing after another, isn’t it. I suppose you should impose on some of those folks and inform them their grievances are invalid? Assuming you care enough about their opinion, that is. Whatever floats your boat.

To Martin: Since I’m obviously still up, to answer your initial point: I’m still against projective demographic objections because projectionitis is bad practice. Obviously the fact that it so frequently accompanies rather convenient agendas doesn’t hurt.

I’m simplifying a bit, of course, in calling the usual use and abuse of statistics WRT minorities (immigrant or otherwise) mere “projection of current trends.” In fact, if we were to simply “project” trends that have Arab birth rates declining—on the theory that the current trends are “near the middle of the current spectrum of possibilities”—we could convince ourselves that we were decisively refuting the swamping argument, but this would be just as stupid as the alternative practice of projecting the trendlines that spell doom for the Jewish majority into the future.

I’m simply saying that if people want to talk trends, they should be able to demonstrate why the trend they’ve selectred is “near the middle of the current spectrum of possibilities” (there being no inherent reason to assume any contingent trendline has that particular distinction) and they should be willing to relinquish talking about “trend” as “inevitability.” Granting the premise is all very well (and again, I don’t fundamentally dispute where you arrive by that reasoning), but when people consistently return to a loaded premise with an historically extremely poor predictive record, I think it’s worth questioning that. In the Israeli case, for instance, granting the inevitability of an Arab majority in the state—when no such majority is in fact inevitable—shores up precisely the kinds of fears on which the Israeli right wing thrives.

As for the right of Israel to exist being controversial, do you think it is not?

Yes, I think it is not. The “drive the Jews into the sea” sentiment that once prevailed in Middle Eastern was never a widespread international trope, and has since waned in the Middle East itself Ahmedinejad notwithstanding (or at least, was heading in that direction prior to the last six years). There is of course controversy over whether it has the right to exist as a state based on and promulgating the Zionist ideology, but this is about the constitution of the state rather than its existence*. It is routine and unremarkable on the internationl stage for the constitution and underlying assumptions of states to be controversial.

(* Obviously, some variants of Zionist ideology dictate that questioning the constitution of the state is to question its existence, but at this point they don’t get to simply assume they’re correct and dictate the parameters of debate to other parties on that basis. That’s question-begging.)

83

abb1 06.20.07 at 7:35 am

nuanced racism problem”

Hahaha. Please stop, man, you’re cracking me up.

Sorry to disappoint, but in fact ignoring person’s every characteristic (like where he/she was born) but their race/ethnicity seems like an excellent definition of blatant racism.

84

Glorious Godfrey 06.20.07 at 8:43 am

Seth:

That link you provide is your standard-issue “this impressionistic collection of anecdotes is truly insightful” fluff piece. When we find it in newspapers, we call it lazy. And sensationalistic. The kick-boxing Turk of doom. Yeah, right.

Based on my own, limited experiences, I find it somewhat unconvincing. But then again, I live in Berlin.

At any rate, European nationhood has tended to be, throughout its history, a pretty fucked-up business. The notion of the “otherness” of other nations (even when it’s associated with admiration) which the link highlights still rears its head with some frequency. But not only in Germany, I can assure you.

85

SG 06.20.07 at 9:02 am


There is of course controversy over whether it has the right to exist as a state based on and promulgating the Zionist ideology

Doctor Slack, wouldn`t any other form of Israel but this one be, well, a one-state solution? A democratic, non-sectarian Palestine, in fact?

I mean, you can either have a state run by and for Jews, a Jewish homeland, or you can`t. It`s hard to imagine any other type of state in Palestine either needing the 2 state solution (since it will either be secular, or it will be Islamic); or rejecting the right of return (since it will be secular, or it will be islamic).

So how can you accept the existence of Israel, and yet reject the existence of Israel as a zionist project?

86

Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 1:42 pm

Here’s a reasonably fair piece on what I called “nuanced” racism, complete with a supporting quote from an Ethiopian MK. (There were three more in the recent election. This is roughly in demographic proportion; the Druse community is about the same size as the Etyopi, and also has a couple of MKs each decade.)

I don’t mean to hold up my personal connections against your Google search, but this happens to be a problem I actually care about, am connected to by family ties, and have put hours and hard-earned shekels into helping to solve. There have been disgraces: the blood bank scandal was probably the nadir. (Chaste Ethiopian immigrants from an AIDS-risk country, to a state where blood donation is a patriotic imperative. To spare offense, some genius in the health ministry decided to take the blood and quietly throw it away; story predictably leaked, thirty thousand outraged Etyopim turned out in protest, government nearly fell.)

Sending the kids of illiterate parents to medical school is hard; if Israel hadn’t already done it in the previous generation with other communities of non-Western Jews (hence the relevance of my cabinet census), one might surely doubt the outcome. Looking to the beam in America’s eye, I might ask how many kids from Rwanda or Kosovo will be entering Harvard’s freshman class this fall. Or I might echo Menachem Begin’s rebuke to Japan when he took in 800 Vietnamese boat people “in solidarity with our Asian neighbors.” I remember when a girl from that cohort entered an elite IDF unit ten years later; her smile was proud front-page copy.

There’s no telling whether “abb1” is talking African exceptionalism or Jewish exceptionalism when he speaks of “race/ethnicity,” and it’s probably a mistake to respond to him at all. The former, as I say, is a mixed story and a continuing challenge, but if Shas is getting votes from them they’re on their way (the US equivalent would be getting a foothold in the Irish big-city machines). The latter, Jew as “race,” is a contemptible premise, refuted by every convert from Sammy Davis Jr. back to Ruth the Moabite.

87

Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 1:51 pm

In the Israeli case, for instance, granting the inevitability of an Arab majority in the state—when no such majority is in fact inevitable—shores up precisely the kinds of fears on which the Israeli right wing thrives.

Just so. Given the cohesion of the haredi fraction (comment 19), it’s not even a likely scenario on straight extrapolation. Every other Israeli community is subject to economic and cultural influences on demography, but that one knows its destiny.

As I said, Britons who obsess about Palestinian birthrates are almost always projecting unresolved personal issues about Northern Ireland; there’s no percentage in taking their polemics seriously.

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Martin Bento 06.20.07 at 3:57 pm

Joshua, I would say the Haredi experience does serve as confirmation that demographic predictions based on birthrates can pan out and fairly quickly.

Leaving aside the demographic question, though, as it’s not one to which I’m really committed, I just don’t accept liberal attempts to rule such arguments out of school, I’d like to know whether you think much of the Israeli public sees the significance of the Hezbo missile attacks last year the way I do. It seems to me quite likely that within a few years that Hezobollah or some similar group will be able to launch a similar attack, but with guided missiles perhaps somewhat better in range and payload. It seems Israel has no defense against this, and it is hard to say what a defense would be. To me, this means Israel has to come to terms with the region for the sake of its own survival, and to do so relatively quickly. I don’t see any military solution short of decimating the Middle East, and even that is dubious. It is usually the Right that plays up threats, but they are usually selling military solutions, and I don’t see what they could claim to have up their sleeves in this case.

Dr. Slack, I’m not saying a Muslim majority is inevitable. I’m not sure if Hithchens is saying that, but I think Hitchens position is clearly of the “Western civilization versus the barbaric hordes” school, so I think he misreads the situation entirely. All I’m saying is that to the extent that you (if you were an Israeli Jew) might find this demographic fact of concern, the best and really only viable response is to try and improve living standards, education, and assimilation of the Arab minority. Ruling out demographic arguments also rules out this response. And people who just saw what happened with the Haredi fraction are unlikely to be persuaded that minorities with high birthrates cannot become much larger and more influential parts of society.

Yes, when I said that Israel’s right to exist was controversial, I meant its right to exist as a Zionist state, not the right of its population not to be annihilated. I realize these two things are often willingly conflated with hysterical “jews into the sea” rhetoric, but that’s not what I’m saying. A Zionist state is what it is, though, and how its establishment was justified, and major extant sticking points – such as a Palestinian right of return – turn on this.

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Seth Edenbaum 06.20.07 at 4:41 pm

Godfrey you’re more loyal to your tropes and mannerisms than to what passes for ideas. You’re an annoying sort of queen.

Jason Stanley:
I still identify as an American of German descent, and I have a number of strong emotional ties to my father’s homeland (and indeed, returned for a year of college). There are a great many things I admire about current German society, from their remarkable acceptance of the sins of their forebearers to their social welfare system. But in the end, I probably couldn’t live there. The fact that most Germans would view a blond person from Pennsylvania whose great-grandparents were German as more German than me would be a perpetual annoyance. The fact that most Germans still can’t really think of the German Jewish population of the past as genuinely German makes me pessimistic about their ability to eventually accept Germans of Turkish descent as genuinely German. And perhaps the inability to think of Germans of Turkish descent as genuinely German is part of what leads them to accept e.g. the abuses of women in that community of the sort that Schneider describes.
The last time you referred to my standard practices I sent you a link to Haaretz. This time I’ll let my comments and reference stand. Perhaps you should get out of Berlin more.—-

#67 is up, Mr Burton, and the answer to your question is… Maurice Motamed. Your reference to the terrorist “Menachem Begin’s rebuke to Japan” just made me laugh. And regardless of your wishful thinking, the Jews except for a few converts to religious judaism are descendents of a desert tribe, genetically identical moreover to Palestinians. Israelis like their DNA studies, exccept those with results they’d rather ignore.—-

“I mean, you can either have a state run by and for Jews, a Jewish homeland, or you can’t.”
Precisely.

“We must do everything to ensure they [the Palestinians] never do return … The old will die and the young will forget,”
etc. etc.
But I’m getting away from my original point, which was not to argue with schmucks, but with the passivity of liberals who don’t stand up to them, even if it means betraying what they claim to represent.

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Glorious Godfrey 06.20.07 at 4:53 pm

Oh well, the tropes and mannerisms amuse me quite a lot. I don’t have much interest in being taken seriously.

As for “referring to your standard practices”? Mate, I’m not aware of your posting history or pet peeves. I was just commenting on a point you made. The principle of ius sanguinis as the basis of nationality law is shit indeed, but its history in post-war Germany is somewhat counterintuitive. That’s all.

And I read your piece, thank you. It’s fluff and anecdote, for the most part. And what’s not fluff can be said of most European notions of nationhood and is not something specifically German, really.

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Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 5:23 pm

I’d like to know whether you think much of the Israeli public sees the significance of the Hezbo missile attacks last year the way I do.

It’s a potentially existential issue, but so’s this. The point is that the Israeli public is basically OK with that. See esp. comments 80 and 88 here.

Hizb’allah will not in this decade (or probably in the next) have the capability to bomb Haifa and Tel Aviv back to where they were in 1997, before the tech boom; short of air superiority, and something like the ordnance load the US dropped on Belgrade, no conventional attack could do so. My students and I wore gas masks in 1991; in 1967 they dug anticipatory mass graves in the public parks; in 1948 “Dr. Ruth” Westheimer was deemed an able-bodied infantryman. And more Jews died in Christian pogroms in the first six years of the 20th century than have died at Muslim hands in the century since. It’s always desperate, and yet it gets steadily better.

A conventional Hebrew greeting worth learning is “Ma yihyeh?”—“Yihyeh b’seder!” (“What’ll be?”—“It’ll work out.”)

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Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 5:43 pm

Maurice Motamed.

“Neighboring state,” I said. No one, including President Katsav and Minister Mofaz, has called the Iranians bigots. They’re just enemies. (Contrast Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Syria, for the other three corners of the Israeli truth table.)

Israel got the dregs of Persian Jewry; Los Angeles got the cream. The middle third is still doing reasonably well in their historic home; it’s a totally different situation from Egypt, Iraq, and the other frontline states, where the whole community was driven out. The Shiraz 13 were badly treated as political pawns of a bellicose theocracy, but if a Jew in modern Iran were tortured, burned and butchered like Ilan Halimi, I’d be badly shocked.

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Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 5:54 pm

See esp. comments 80 and 88 here.

And 116, 122.

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abb1 06.20.07 at 6:27 pm

See esp. comments 80 and 88
And 116, 122

Romantic nationalism, huh. That’s just sick, man; a mental disorder, far’s I’m concerned. Viva rootless cosmopolitanism.

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Glorious Godfrey 06.20.07 at 6:41 pm

Understand that nothing I´ve said is to be seen against the backdrop of the main topic of the thread: I do think indeed that Israel is faced with a problem of racism, and that it is a direct consequence of the state´s founding ideology.

The progenitors of that ideology are indeed well known.

And Hitchen´s piece is disgusting.

It may sound frivolous, but that´s all so obvious to me as not to be worth posting about, especially when other commenters are doing good yeoman work on the topic.

What I´m taking issue with is the frankly Biblical conflation of past and present you´re indulging in, in order to underscore all the above.

Not that I´d want to present myself as an Interesting person who´s led an Interesting life, but I happen to know something about nationalism in Europe. I´ve lived (as in: spent more than two years of my life) in five different countries. And I´ve done NGO work in Bosnia for almost a year. I´d say that current-day Germany is, on the whole, no more and in most cases far less blatantly nationalistic than e.g. Romania, Catalonia, Serbia, Croatia, and even France. As for the Dutch, they´re great at PR.

In other words, while German nationalism does exist and is indeed becoming less closeted, it´s not at this point the most virulent strain of what is, has always been in fact, a broader European phenomenon.

Simple, isn´t it?

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Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 6:53 pm

Viva rootless cosmopolitanism.

Imagine all the people ….

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Joshua W. Burton 06.20.07 at 6:55 pm

[Oops, bad link. Trying again.]

Viva rootless cosmopolitanism.

Imagine all the people ….

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Martin Bento 06.20.07 at 7:16 pm

Joshua, I hope the relatively sanguine view you and evidently your countrypeople have about the situation is correct. It’s not clear to me why Hezbo would need air superiority to pull off such an attack with guided missiles, when they did not to do it with simple rockets. Can Israel knock such things out in flight reliably? As for requiring Kosovo war level ordnance, I don’t know. It would take a lot less than that to send the SF Bay Area back well past 1997. Hit the bridges, freeways, resevoirs, chemical plants, oil refineries and other places that will start fires, populated highrises, maybe some biotech facilities, levees. Probably Israel is designed to be more robust as it has grown up with the notion of being under attack in mind. So I hope it could make it through. It seemed like it did get surprised, though. One thing that has tripped up the US in Iraq is overconfidence. All our recent wars were easy successes, so the debate about Iraq circled more around what we should than what we could do. If a moral case for toppling Saddam could be made, well what more needed to be said? I hope Israel is not falling into this trap.

I think the notion of a nation committed, as in linked comment #80, to perpetual conflict and existential threat is madness. Do you really think such a thing can go on indefinitely? In earlier eras, perhaps so, but weaponry advances all the time, and it is easier to attack than defend (if your aim is just to destroy rather than immediately govern). Israel’s enemies do not need to have weapons better than it does to have weapons against which it cannot defend itself (although I cannot see