Eight per cent swing to Kerry!

by John Q on November 2, 2004

The results for Dixville Notch are in !. Bush 19, Kerry 7. In 2000, Bush got 21 to Gore’s 5. There was a similar swing in Hart’s Location. Repeated nationwide, this swing would give Kerry a thumping victory[1].

fn1. As bases for spurious predictions go, I’d rank this one somewhere between the Washington Redskins home games and Ray Fair’s econometric model.



bad Jim 11.02.04 at 6:43 am

It’s also been noted that a Red Sox win in the World Series in an election year predicts a Democratic victory, since it worked for Woodrow Wilson.


foo 11.02.04 at 11:57 am

So now the question is: would you rank Ray Fair’s model, re-weighted coefficients and all, above or below the Redskins?


Ken Houghton 11.02.04 at 2:46 pm

As a data point:

The Redskins model has been perfect; Fair’s gets adjusted, sometimes significantly, every time it is wrong (read: every four years).

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