Kerry 317?

by Brian on November 2, 2004

Barring a Red Sox sized miracle comeback, Kerry will win this one. Red Sox sized miracles happen (just ask the Red Sox!) but it’ll be tough for Bush. Even if Kerry gets to 270 projected electoral votes (if he does), there’ll still be something to watch tonight though. I’m going to pay particular attention to whether he reaches two particular numbers – 297 and 317. The significance of 297 is that once he’s there, two state’s results will have to be overturned to make it a Bush victory. The significance of 317 is that once he’s there, *three* state’s results will have to be overturned to make it a Bush victory. At that point we can put away the lawyers, because there aren’t going to be three results overturned.

My credence that he’ll get to 317 is around 20%. He’d have to hold Ohio and Florida and pull off an upset somewhere – Colorado, North Carolina or Virginia seeming to be the main targets. It’s hard to make intuitive judgments about disjunctions like this one because obviously Kerry is behind the 8-ball in every one of those states. But I give some credence to the possibility he can pull off _one_ of them. If not, Court TV might be in for a ratings bonanza.

By the way, the Rep_L52 contract at Iowa is seriously underpriced. Nobody is exit polling Texas, and if Bush is running up the score there as much as Zogby is saying, he’s got way more than a 20% shot at the popular vote.



ruralsaturday 11.02.04 at 11:53 pm

Tradesports, Red Sox; two teams – one winner.
I think it’s great the way you guys are subtly reinforcing the sports metaphor. Like the images of those fans in the stands with their hands folded in prayer. Genuine prayer that their team might win; and Kurt Schilling bringing his own prayerful image to the Bush campaign, while Kerry wears a ‘Sox cap on the stump.
Great, great; we’ll just keep merging these paradigms until they’re indistinguishable, and the life-and-death power of the Presidency’s no more or less important than the catcher’s responsibility to the pitcher, and the team, in the World Series.
None of it matters, all of it is crucial, but there’s really no longer much difference between watching baseball during its post-season intensity, and watching the high-dollar foundation gleam on the cheeks of the anchors as they roll out the numbers on election eve. Except that Johnny Damon’s way more entertaining, and better at his job than any of the candidates.
The big difference, one that matters very much to me, old-fashioned as I am, is that Damon knows he’s playing baseball.
Someday soon though, maybe we’ll take that metaphor right on out all the way – to life itself, and death.
Win, lose, no sweat.
It’s only a game, after all.


Bernard Yomtov 11.03.04 at 12:25 am

Premature conclusion, I think, though I hope not.


Shai 11.03.04 at 12:43 am

Quiggin says in another thread:

“Looking at the movements today, I’d say the markets have the wisdom of a crowd that gets its info from Slate”

equally applies to:

“Barring a Red Sox sized miracle comeback, Kerry will win this one”


Zhang Ziyi 11.03.04 at 7:38 pm

Reading this on wednesday is pretty funny.


mike 11.03.04 at 9:26 pm

Dewey defeats Truman…


the talking dog 11.04.04 at 4:42 am

Good call, Dude.


Allan 11.04.04 at 4:46 am



Ethesis 11.06.04 at 3:28 am

Gee, few comments on this one.


Tim 11.06.04 at 3:39 am

Are you still grinning?

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