Here’s “a sentence”:http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670314 from a leader in _The Economist_ :
bq. If Mr Brown had fattened the public finances during the good times, *as he should have done* [emphasis added] , then this [mounting a fiscal rescue package] would be no bad thing.
Now what Brown actually did during the good times was to invest in public services that had been underinvested in for decades: fixing the roof whilst the sun was shining. Maybe some of that money was unwisely spent (I don’t doubt it). Here’s what I’m interested in: did the _Economist_ call, back then, for the use of tax revenues to “fatten the public finances”? Or did they favour lower taxes?
{ 20 comments }
Tom 07.10.08 at 7:37 am
It’s one thing to invest money in public services, it’s another thing entirely to invest it well. Unfortunately, Brown has seen fit to piss up the wall an innordinate amount of his kitty…
p 07.10.08 at 10:02 am
1. The leader is just saying saying that if Brown had not increased public spending as much as he did there would have been room for a rescue package without resorting to public borrowing. One may disagree that building up a budget surplus would have been a better use of tax revenue than increased spending on public services, but that does not render their position inconsistent. The Economist is pretty consistent in calling for balanced budgets, and I’ve never seen them call for unfunded tax cuts, which you seem to imply.
2. The language of “investing in public services” is just political spin. Of course some public spending is on fixed assests, but most of it is just current spending that has nothing to do with deferred consumption.
stuart 07.10.08 at 11:03 am
Couldn’t find anything suggesting Brown should have been paying down the debt, but found this gem: Tighter credit conditions are just what the markets need Aug 2007
Chris Bertram 07.10.08 at 11:04 am
_The Economist is pretty consistent in calling for balanced budgets_
Well they may have been consistent in the past, but the sentence I drew attention to claims that Brown should have run a substantial budget _surplus_ (which is not a balanced budget).
Ray 07.10.08 at 11:06 am
Re. 2 – if the government had not increased public spending so much and generated a surplus, would The Economist have said
a) very wise, now put all that money in the bank for a rainy day, or
b) why does the government keep taxing us at an unnecessarily high rate? give that surplus back to the people who earned it!
J. Cuttance 07.10.08 at 11:20 am
good commentary by all. That economist quote rang a subconscious warning bell and I’m glad I’ve been shown why.
stostosto 07.10.08 at 11:42 am
The UK has a public debt, right? “Fattening public finances” amounts to paying down that debt. Which Brown, presumably, didn’t do when he had the opportunity.
This, btw, could logically have been done in the form of raising taxes as well as cutting public expeniture.
It’s a standard Keynesian view that budgets should not be balanced every year but over the business cycle; you run deficits during recessions and surpluses during expansions. As far as I can see the point made in the quote is that Brown failed to do the latter.
You can argue, as you do, that Brown’s fiscal policies during the expansion wasn’t imprudent because they went towards investing.
The Economist people, obviously, argue many things which are not always consistent, but they’re no stranger to the idea that public investment is different from current expenditure. Indeed, I have seen them argue that there ought to be a public sector balance sheet keeping accounts of public sector assets (like buildings, infrastructure etc.) as well as liabilities.
One advantage would be better management of these assets, i.e. an explicit accounting of depreciation of public capital stock which would — ideally — induce policy makers to set aside means for maintenance on a current basis.
This is a different argument from the “balance the budget over the business cycle” argument, but it pertains to how a budget deficit might be defined.
abb1 07.10.08 at 11:55 am
I’ve never heard the word “fatten” applied to public finances. I sense connotations of the Joseph and Pharaoh story, or, perhaps a slight hint to some ancient sacrifice ritual.
stuart 07.10.08 at 12:31 pm
The UK has a public debt, right? “Fattening public finances†amounts to paying down that debt. Which Brown, presumably, didn’t do when he had the opportunity.
When Brown became chancellor the UK national debt was around 43% of GDP, he got it down to just around 31% of GDP by 2002 and it has risen back about halfway since then (to around 37%).
source
harry b 07.10.08 at 12:33 pm
I’ve been reading the Economist throughout the period, but this is immpressionistic. My impression: they were opposed throughout the period to substantial increases in funding without substantial reform (in particular for the NHS). But they seemed, fairly consistently, to recognise that the NHS is underfunded (they buy into a caricature of the Hanushek thesis for schools, so never seem to think education is underfunded). I don’t have any sense of them opposing substantial personal income taxes, either, though they are very hostile to taxes on corporations and payroll taxes. So, I’d say the Economist is not being as inconsistent as you suspect. They have certainly, though, never called for higher taxes.
john b 07.10.08 at 12:58 pm
Sssh, Stuart – don’t complicate matters with facts.
We *know* from the media [*] that ZaNu Liebour has destroyed the public finances; mentioning the fact that they’re actually in pretty good shape is simply beyond the pale.
(the same rules also apply to crime; the wider economy; education; and healthcare)
[*] yes, the left-biased media [fx: dies laughing]
cjcjc 07.10.08 at 1:48 pm
The debt/gdp stats do not take account of “off balance sheet” liabilities, ie PFI – a Brown disaster.
Nor do they take account of unfunded liabilities such a public sector pensions, which have of course risen dramatically over the past 10 years (along with those of the private sector) along with expected longevity.
Anyway, if the public finances are in such good shape I’m sure we’ll see the appropriate stimulative measures….er, won’t we??
p 07.10.08 at 1:48 pm
Now this is just silly. Nobody thinks that budgets should balance in a single year. Gordon Brown’s own “golden rule” is to balance the budget over the cycle[1]. This means running surpluses in good years to pay for deficits in bad years. The comment you’ve excerpted from is a jab at Brown for bending and breaking his own rules, overspending in good years so that there now is little room left over to stimulate the economy when it needs it in bad years. I’m sorry, but you just haven’t found the inconsistency that you thought you had.
And, on taxes, here’s from the Economist in January:
Hardly a recommendation from the Economist on higher taxes, but it does nothing to support your “inconsistent Economist” line.
[1] Specifically, to borrow only to invest, over the course of the economic cycle. “Invest” in the true sense, that is, not as in “all public spending is investment”.
john b 07.10.08 at 2:14 pm
“The debt/gdp stats do not take account of “off balance sheet†liabilities, ie PFI – a Brown disaster.”
…and which are worth next to nothing – £30bn, or 1.5% of GDP. See here. The estimates which have it as larger are combined by idiots who don’t understand accounting.
“Anyway, if the public finances are in such good shape I’m sure we’ll see the appropriate stimulative measures….er, won’t we??”
Did you miss the debt-funded tax cut they introduced the other month?
P O'Neill 07.10.08 at 2:49 pm
Did you miss the debt-funded tax cut they introduced the other month?
Which of course was all part of a long-planned strategy to loosen fiscal policy when times got rough :-)
Alex 07.10.08 at 3:58 pm
PFI/PPP is a policy introduced by the Conservative Government of 1990-1997. The Conservative Party does not, AFAIK, promise to cease using it or to buy out existing PFIs.
Tory statements regarding PFI must be evaluated with regard to their credibility in the light of these facts.
a 07.10.08 at 6:41 pm
“It’s a standard Keynesian view that budgets should not be balanced every year but over the business cycle; you run deficits during recessions and surpluses during expansions. As far as I can see the point made in the quote is that Brown failed to do the latter.”
Who ever has? Keynsian theory is like Marxism: fine in theory, just doesn’t work in practice. There are *never* surpluses, just the political desire to have an excuse to spend more money in the bad times.
stostosto 07.10.08 at 8:51 pm
a:
There are plenty of examples of countries running surpluses during expansions. Even more cases of GDP growth outpacing debt growth, thus making it less burdensome, like the graph linked in #9 shows for Britain in the early 2000s.
Of course one tricky thing is, as you may imply, to determine how long the cycle lasts in order to time your fiscal effect. Another is the politics of it.
But it can be done and has been done.
Bob B 07.10.08 at 9:01 pm
“Keynsian theory is like Marxism: fine in theory, just doesn’t work in practice.”
That’s just rubbish. The claimed focus of Keynes’s General Theory was this:
“In particular, it is an outstanding characteristic of the economic system in which we live that, whilst it is subject to severe fluctuations in respect of output and employment, it is not violently unstable. Indeed it seems capable of remaining in a chronic condition of sub-normal activity for a considerable period without any marked tendency either towards recovery or towards complete collapse.” [p.249]
http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/k/keynes/john_maynard/k44g/chapter18.html
The stagnation of Japan’s economy after 1992 and the perennial price deflation there shows that the contingency Keynes was focused on hasn’t gone away. His attempt at diagnosing the causes of such situations may or may not have been successful but it stimulated a debate that has continued since.
Watson Aname 07.11.08 at 9:13 pm
Seems to me that much the same could be (has been) said of Marxism, Bob. So there is that.
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