Posts by author:

Henry

Making the revolution permanent?

by Henry Farrell on October 10, 2008

I suggested a couple of days ago that the partial nationalizations of national banking systems that we’re seeing 1 was likely to be a temporary phenomenon, albeit one with long lasting implications for market actors’ expectations. I’m beginning to have second thoughts; I now suspect for two reasons that bank nationalization may be a lot harder to reverse than I thought.

First is the move towards more or less complete deposit guarantees that many Western states are offering (most explicitly Ireland, less explicitly the UK, Germany and others). This is a move that is going to be hard to undo any time soon without risking a further grave crisis of confidence. But it is also one that exposes taxpayers to risks that are far greater and difficult to quantify than the previous system (where many or most advanced industrialized states guaranteed deposits up to a set figure). The moral hazard problems are obvious, and states will want to have as many tools of control to make sure that they don’t get taken for a ride. Large stakes in the relevant firms are one such means of control.

Second – historical institutionalists in political science (Paul Pierson, Jacob Hacker, Kathleen Thelen etc) talk a lot about the importance of sequencing and timing in explaining institutional change. Their arguments might lead one to break up the responses to the crisis into two phases, one of which is likely to build on the other. The first phase is the current one – trying desperately to stop the entire system from breaking down through a variety of measures including injections of liquidity, interest rate cuts, and, most prominently, taking stakes in banks and other financial institutions. The second phase hasn’t really started yet, but will involve trying to build longer term institutions at the domestic level, and (to the extent that agreement is possible), the international level too to prevent this kind of thing from happening again.

The key point here is that the second phase isn’t going to begin _ex nihilo_; instead, it’s going to begin in a world that has been reshaped by the emergency measures that are being taken at the moment. And these measures will offer a set of possible tools and means of influence for government that will prominently include use of governments’ ownership stakes in large chunks of the financial system. It will be very tempting indeed for governments that want to secure financial stability to take up these tools and make them part of their permanent apparatus. Nor do the free marketeers seem in a very good position to win the ideological fight against this kind of initiative given their current disarray. Although the _Economist_ and other stalwarts are bravely battling on, as Dani Rodrik notes, Samuel Brittan of all people has declared himself today to be a closet Keynesian and is pushing the case for an expansionary fiscal policy.

1 Or, in Iceland’s case, full nationalization; see also Paul de Grauwe) in the FT this morning for a more general full nationalization proposal.

Cohort, age and period

by Henry Farrell on October 7, 2008

Two current debates about generations and what they mean. First, Siva Vaidhyanathan’s recent article in the _Chronicle of Higher Education_, expressing skepticism about the concept of Digital Natives.

Gomez writes. “For this generation — which Googles rather than going to the library — print seems expensive, a bore, and a waste of time.” When I read that, I shuddered. I shook my head. I rolled my eyes. And I sighed. I have been hearing some version of the “kids today” or “this generation believes” argument for more than a dozen years of studying and teaching about digital culture and technology. … Every class has a handful of people with amazing skills and a large number who can’t deal with computers at all. A few lack mobile phones. … almost none know how to program or even code text with Hypertext Markup Language (HTML). Only a handful come to college with a sense of how the Internet fundamentally differs from the other major media platforms in daily life. College students in America are not as “digital” as we might wish to pretend. And even at elite universities, many are not rich enough. All this mystical talk about a generational shift and all the claims that kids won’t read books are just not true.

Second, Matt Yglesias on whether it’s important that the kids love Obama.

I used to sometimes think that the relatively left-wing views of the under-30 generation were basically just a reflection of the fact that the under-30 cohort contains many fewer non-hispanic whites than does the over-30 cohort. This new report from Amanda Logan and David Madlan makes it clear that’s not right — young whites have substantially more progressive views on a whole range of key issues than do older whites … if you hunt down a copy of the current issue of The Atlantic you should find … a piece by yours truly observing that the present day conservative coalition seems to mostly be stuck with the shrinking slices of the demographic pie. This data shows us one of the major driving factors behind that.

[click to continue…]

The Commanding Heights Revisited

by Henry Farrell on October 6, 2008

When I suggested a couple of weeks ago that the intellectual hegemony of free market capitalism was under threat, Dan Drezner expressed polite skepticism.

Is this the beginning of a norm shift in the global economy? It’s tempting to say yes, but I have my doubts. The last time the United States intervened on this scale in its own financial sector was the S&L bailout — and despite that intervention, financial globalization took off. The last time we’ve seen coordinated global interventions like this was the Asian financial crisis of a decade ago — and that intervention reinforced rather than retarded the privilege of private actors in the marketplace. In other words, massive interventions can take place without undercutting the ideological consensus that private actors should control the commanding heights of the economy.

[click to continue…]

GMU sued for Zotero

by Henry Farrell on September 30, 2008

Via David Levine, it appears that George Mason University is being sued for over 10 million dollars by the owner of EndNote (which happens to be Thomson-Reuters).

The complaint states, “Dr. Daniel J. Cohen, Associate Professor, Department of History and Art History, and the director of GMU’s Center for History and New Media, developed Zotero, which is a freely distributable, open-source software based research tool that allows users to gather, organize and analyze sources, including citations, and freely share the results with others.” The Center for History and New Media release “a new beta version of Zotero to the general public” on July 8. Reuters adds, “A significant and highly touted feature of the new beta version of Zotero, however, is its ability to convert – in direct violation of the License Agreement – Thomson’s 3,500 plus proprietary .ens style files within the EndNote Software into free, open source, easily distributable Zotero .csl files.”

Now, I’m obviously not an intellectual property lawyer (fwiw the Wikipedia article on reverse engineering, which may or may not be reliable but is certainly more reliable than me, suggests that suits over interoperability are of dubious legal merit). But I am an academic, and thus part of EndNote’s core end-user market. And I say that, regardless or not of whether it’s legal, this is a bullshit move on Thomson-Reuters’ part. There are a lot of academics out there who have used EndNote in the past and created styles for the journals that they submit to etc. EndNote’s owners are clearly worried that these academics will be tempted to move their styles from EndNote to a software package which in my view (and I’ve used both) is clearly superior. This is a no-brainer. There is _no significant innovation or value-added_ to EndNote’s specific file format. Nor is there reason to believe (given the existence of Zotero) that protecting this file format and EndNote’s purported intellectual property rights over it will encourage innovation in this particular marketplace. On the broad social merits, Reuters’ attempted shakedown is indefensible.

Nor is this as trivial an issue for academics as it might seem. As Scott has suggested in the past Zotero and projects like it are at the heart of an effort to bring something like the semantic web to academia. Zotero combines bibliographical database management with social tagging and other fun stuff – it is gradually becoming a platform through which academics can share metadata and other interesting things with each other. Which means that this battle is likely to have long term consequences in determining whether or not new forms of academic collaboration are likely to be controlled by academics themselves, or take place through some kind of commercially controlled intermediation, with all the forms of stupidity that are likely to go along with that.

For my part, I’m going to refuse to use Reuters’ software in future, strongly discourage graduate students from buying EndNote, and try to get this message out to my colleagues too (at least those of them who aren’t using Zotero or some BibTex client already). If I taught any classes where Thomson printed relevant textbooks, I would be strongly inclined not to use these texts either. I encourage you to do the same (and, if you’re so minded, to suggest other possible ways of making it clear to Reuters that this kind of behaviour is intolerable in the comments). People have argued that the music industry has screwed up badly by suing its customers – whether that’s true or not, makers of academic bibliography software should be told that suing universities for what appear to be entirely legitimate actions is not likely to do their reputations any good.

NB- post corrected shortly after publication for bone-headed error.

Paul Newman has died

by Henry Farrell on September 27, 2008

Obituary here.

Braised Chunks of Karl Popper Served in Heavy Sauce

by Henry Farrell on September 25, 2008

Scott is probably too self-deprecating to point to this excellently funny and devastating review of Bernard-Henri Lévy’s latest effusion, but I’m not him, and hence have no compunctions. It’s impossible to pick out a favorite bit so I won’t.

What if they gave a presidential debate and nobody came?

by Henry Farrell on September 25, 2008

According to CNN, McCain may be a no-show on Friday.

Graham says the McCain camp is well aware of the position of the Obama campaign and the debate commission that the debate should go on as planned — but both he and another senior McCain adviser insist the Republican nominee will not go to the debate Friday if there’s no deal on the bailout.

This reminds me of the famous episode of ‘Have I Got News For You” where the Right Honourable Roy Hattersley failed to turn up for the third time. They replaced him with a tub of lard.

Now McCain, unlike the RHRH, is pretty spry for a guy in his seventies. So a tub of lard probably isn’t apropos. But nominations are now open for objects, creatures or persons that might suitably replace the presidential-candidate-in-absentia. Keep it clean please.

Update: I just saw on MSNBC that David Letterman has already put in his entry for this competition. When McCain cancelled his appearance on Letterman tonight, phoning Letterman in person to tell him that he was rushing to fix the financial crisis (he lied; in fact, he was in a different CBS studio recording an interview with Kate Couric), Letterman invited Keith Olbermann instead. Awesome – I hope that the Presidential Debates Commission follows suit.

Clinton on the bail-out

by Henry Farrell on September 23, 2008

I was one of a smallish group of bloggers who met Bill Clinton yesterday at the Clinton Global Initiative.1 The interview was supposed to be exclusively about the Initiative, but about 70% of the conversation ended up focusing on the financial turmoil. For the benefit of anyone who’s interested, my impression (based on notes – no recording was allowed) below the fold. Dana Goldstein, who was at the event too, has more to say here.

[click to continue…]

The end of global deregulatory reform

by Henry Farrell on September 18, 2008

Tyler Cowen points to this NYT article on the international fallout from the current market crisis in the US.

Is the United States no longer the global beacon of unfettered, free-market capitalism? In extending a last-minute $85 billion lifeline to American International Group, the troubled insurer, Washington has not only turned away from decades of rhetoric about the virtues of the free market and the dangers of government intervention, but it has also probably undercut future American efforts to promote such policies abroad. [click to continue…]

Farewell to the PDs

by Henry Farrell on September 18, 2008

So it looks as though the PDs, Ireland’s neo-liberal party, are on the way to the chopping block. While I disagreed vigorously with most of their policies, I have mildly mixed feelings about this, if only because an uncle of mine was a founding member (and the person who led them up until the disastrous election that precipitated their current state of disrepair). But mostly, I’m posting so that I can link to this wonderful extract from the current leader’s public statement on their future.

Mr Cannon said it was “far from me to pre-empt what that decision might be”. In his opinion, the party had two choices. It could “limp on” into an uncertain future, while elected members were “picked off the edge of the herd like wounded animals”. The other choice was to dissolve so that the party could say: “We have triumphed and in our triumph we are leaving the field with a degree of grace and dignity.”

Far from pre-empting, indeed …

Exit and Disloyalty

by Henry Farrell on September 12, 2008

Part of Alex Tabarrok’s argument for why libertarians should vote for Barack Obama:

The libertarian voice has not been listened to in Republican politics for a long time. The Republicans take the libertarian wing of the party for granted and with phony rhetoric and empty phrases have bought our support on the cheap. Thus – since voice has failed – it is time for exit. Remember that if a political party can count on you then you cannot count on it.

[click to continue…]

Eileen Flynn has died

by Henry Farrell on September 11, 2008

Her story will almost certainly be unfamiliar to non-Irish readers, but it's an important one.

The death has taken place of Wexford school teacher Eileen Flynn, who became an important figure in the history of the separation between the Catholic Church and the State. In August 1982 Ms Flynn was dismissed from her job as an English and history teacher at the Holy Faith Convent in New Ross, Co Wexford. At the time she was sacked, Ms Flynn was unmarried with a baby son and was living with the baby’s father, a separated man, Richie Roche. Two months after Ms Flynn gave birth she received a letter from the school manager informing her that following her decision not to resign from the school her position was being terminated. The letter referred to complaints from parents about her lifestyle and of her open rejection of the “norms of behaviour” and the ideals the school existed to promote. It also reminded her of the “scandal” already caused. Ms Flynn sought to be reinstated in her post but lost her unfair dismissal case at the Employment Appeals Tribunal and at the Circuit Court. She finally lost her appeal to the High Court on March 8th, 1985.

A key piece of background information here is that she was sacked from what was, effectively, a state school. The Irish state had farmed out the larger part of the education system to the Catholic Church (albeit with separate schools for the Protestant minority), so that while the state paid teachers, the parish priest was typically the local school manager. This wasn’t all bad, but stories like Eileen Flynn’s remind me why I don’t particularly like efforts by some US religious groups to push the boundaries between church and state. The ability to deprive people who don’t conform to local mores of their livelihood is likely to become a dangerous and pernicious form of social control, as it did in Ireland for most of the last century.

The Mechanisms of Nixonland

by Henry Farrell on September 10, 2008

The week before last, I chaired an APSA panel on Rick Perlstein’s Nixonland, with responses from Paul Krugman, Nolan McCarty, Paul Pierson and Eric Rauchway. I can honestly say that this was the best APSA panel I’ve ever been at (and this isn’t self-promotion – my contributions were limited to the boring non-creative stuff like organizing questions from the audience); when I finish transcribing the audio of the panel and put it up on the WWW, you’ll be able to decide for yourself. Anyway, one of the key questions that panelists discussed was the extent to which it was true that Nixonland was still with us today, and if so, why? The last couple of days (and today’s nonsense from the McCain campaign about how Obama wants to give comprehensive sex education to kindergarten children, which maps almost perfectly onto similarly nonsensical political arguments that Rick documents in the 1960s) provide pretty good evidence that Nixonland is alive and well. But why?
[click to continue…]

Presidential speech wordles

by Henry Farrell on September 8, 2008

Hilzoy has some word by word analysis of John McCain’s convention speech, which reminded me that I hadn’t seen anyone do any convention speech Wordles. Which doesn’t mean that no-one has done one – just that they don’t seem to be popping up in the blogosphere. So here are yer wordles for Barack Obama, John McCain, Joe Biden and Sarah Palin, in that order (I’ve used different colour schemes for the Democratic and Republican nominees to make it easier to distinguish them).

Barack Obama

John McCain

Joe Biden

Sarah Palin

NATO, the EU and Russia

by Henry Farrell on August 21, 2008

Clive Crook has a post riffing on two columns by Thomas Friedman and David Ignatius which seems to me to get things wrong (or at the least, my interpretation of the relevant history is rather different).

Friedman concentrates on the error of Nato expansion, and the consequent humiliation of Russia, which has now come back to bite us. … The risks of humiliating Russia after the Wall came down were perhaps given too little weight. The dilemma was certainly understood by advocates of Nato enlargement, and there were attempts at outreach through various forms of partnership between Russia and and the alliance, though perhaps this seemed like adding insult to injury. But bear two other points in mind. One, Nato was not enlarged all the way, out of concern for Russia’s reaction: Ukraine and Georgia have been sort of promised membership, but with no timetable. Two, the question was, what were we to say to Poland, Hungary, and then-Czechoslovakia, desperate for release from Russo-Soviet imperium and for the protection of the West? Remember also that the success of their post-socialist transition to market economics was very much in doubt. This was a finely balanced argument.

The real mistake, to my mind, was in taking too long to admit the Eastern Europeans to the European Union–and that in turn owed everything to the fact (a grave mistake in its own right) that the EU had deepened its political integration too fast and too far. A shallower economic union, rather than a United States of Europe in progress, would have been able to embrace Poland and the others more eagerly. As it was, the only fast-acting institutional support for the East European reformers was Nato, a military alliance explicitly created to confront the Soviet Union, and implicitly still aimed at Russia. Friedman accuses the Clinton and Bush foreign-policy teams of “rank short-sightedness” in all this. He makes a good point, but the error was not as clear-cut as he says.

[click to continue…]