Matt Yglesias is “quite right”:http://yglesias.tpmcafe.com/story/2005/10/23/161832/81 when he says that Scowcroft, Wilkerson and company don’t deserve any kudos for giving the administration a few more kicks when it’s already reeling. But you can also turn this argument on its head – that they’re doing it illustrates exactly how much trouble the administration is in. While DiIulio and O’Neill dissented in the first term, neither were central figures in the administration or in the Republican movement (arguably O’Neill, as Secretary for the Treasury, should have been the former, but he was marginalized from very early on). That far more prominent Republicans* are now knifing each other in the dark tells us that the disciplining mechanisms that made “diIulio recant his apostasy”:http://www.rense.com/general32/shut.htm are breaking down very badly. Key people are calculating that they’ll be hurt worse if they stay on message and go down with the ship than if they try to get their own version of the story out while they can. It doesn’t take Thomas Schelling to tell you that situations of this kind can easily turn into a rush for the exits, as everyone tries to make sure that he or she is the first to get out, and thus perhaps to retain a few scraps of credibility. Not that this is happening yet, or necessarily will. But there’s a discernible atmosphere of deep nervousness among Republicans, which could easily explode into an out-and-out panic, given the right spark.
* Wilkerson isn’t very prominent, but Colin Powell, on whose behalf he is “very likely speaking”:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/21/AR2005102101829.html, is.
Update: See also “Matt Welch”:http://www.reason.com/hitandrun/2005/10/the_week_of_the.shtml.
{ 12 comments }
P ONeill 10.24.05 at 10:17 am
The panic would have to come from Senate Republicans to produce any actual policy changes in the near-term.
sammler 10.24.05 at 10:33 am
This may be wishful thinking. Republicans disagree, but they tend to agree that the Democrats have nothing to offer — and they appear absurdly confident (indeed, destructively overconfident) of retaining power.
nick s 10.24.05 at 10:37 am
Given that Wilkerson’s speech discussed his falling-out with Powell, I suspect that footnote isn’t accurate. Powell’s a company man to the bitter end. Though he may have been the source of a few choice tidbits w/r/t the leak case, he’s not going to speak out against the family.
norbizness 10.24.05 at 11:12 am
Someday, it will become common internet knowledge that Scowcroft penned an AUGUST 2002 editorial in the Wall Street journal entitled “DON’T ATTACK SADDAM.” As someone in the 100th comment thread in a post making that mistake pointed out, that was a hell of a lot more than most Democratic Senators were doing at the time. Or liberal hawks, for that matter.
alkali 10.24.05 at 11:21 am
Someday, it will become common internet knowledge that Scowcroft penned an AUGUST 2002 editorial in the Wall Street journal entitled “DON’T ATTACK SADDAM.â€
And then he appeared on television talking-head shows to criticize Bush. And then when the war actually started, he kept up his criticism of the administration. And when Bush ran for reelection, he endorsed Bush’s opponent.
Oh, wait. None of those things ever happened.
Credit where credit is due, to be sure, but only as much as is due.
norbizness 10.24.05 at 11:32 am
Here’s his interview on Meet the Press from September 2002, one month before Bush laid out the dishonest case. Maybe the Democratic candidate for President could have garnered a little support by.. I don’t know.. voting against the Iraqi use of force resolution.
Cut the 80-year-old guy some slack.
alkali 10.24.05 at 11:46 am
Maybe the Democratic candidate for President could have garnered a little support by.. I don’t know.. voting against the Iraqi use of force resolution.
Just to be clear, we don’t disagree on this.
abb1 10.24.05 at 11:57 am
If I am a republican congressman or a senator, what’s the worst that can happen to me if I stick with the Mafia? If I’m not re-elected, I’ll be taken care of: I’ll become a lobbyist and make $10-15 million in the next 10 years. My wife will make a few millions too without breaking a sweat.
Now, what is going to happen to me if I cross the Family? I may still not get re-elected and no one will touch me with a ten-foot pole – no sinecure, no money, no nothing.
Moral: Never Go Against The Family.
Bernard Yomtov 10.24.05 at 12:12 pm
I’ll become a lobbyist and make $10-15 million in the next 10 years.
Who exactly is going to pay you to be a lobbyist when your pals have been thrown out of office as well?
abb1 10.24.05 at 12:45 pm
Bernard, it doesn’t matter. A former congress(wo)man makes a good lobbyist whether her/his party is in power or not. They are inside the network, they are members of the club.
luci phyrr 10.24.05 at 2:15 pm
as everyone tries to make sure that he or she is the first to get out, and thus perhaps to retain a few scraps of credibility
Happened too with many of our our liberal pundits, and on the leftie blogs especially, regarding support for the Iraq War.
Grand Moff Texan 10.24.05 at 4:14 pm
the disciplining mechanisms that made diIulio recant his apostasy are breaking down very badly
They are otherwise occupied, with lawyers. That, and there are fewer volunteers willing to fling Orin Hatch ejectamenta by the spade full out of their spider holes.
Assrocket doesn’t count: he’s paid to do that.
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