Following Fallujah, I see that liberal and leftie bloggers who are pro-war (such as “Oliver Kamm”:http://oliverkamm.typepad.com/blog/2004/04/hitchens_is_ans.html , “SIAW”:http://marxist-org-uk.blogspot.com/2004_04_01_marxist-org-uk_archive.html#108102268775079976 and “Norman Geras”:http://normblog.typepad.com/normblog/2004/04/falluja_3.html ) have been linking to “a WSJ piece by Christopher Hitchens”:http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110004903 which argues that the disgusting behaviour of the Fallujah mob vindicates the decision to go to war. (If we hadn’t acted now, the whole of Iraq would have become like this, in time ….) I have to say that my reaction to their reaction is somewhat sceptical. If the people of Iraq are happy and peaceable (as claimed by some opinion pollsters) then this is supposed to vindicate the war; if they are rioting and murderous, then this also vindicates the war! One has to wonder whether there is _any_ development in Iraq that Hitchens wouldn’t use as confirming evidence for his worldview and which wouldn’t then be cited in this way by pro-war bloggers! Perhaps the news of increased antagonism from a section of the Shia will make new demands on Hitchens’s ingenuity?
[Lest this post be taken as more hostile to the pro-war bloggers than intended, I’d add that it seems appropriate to ask of everyone who seems certain of the rightness of their position on the war, whether there are any developments that would lead them to say, “OK, I was wrong.” For instance, if there is a functioning and independent Iraqi democracy within two years, which lasts for at least a further five, then I think that ought to shake the convictions of hardened opponents. But I don’t think that’s likely.]
{ 90 comments }
Anthony 04.05.04 at 9:27 am
One has to wonder whether there is any development in Iraq that Pilger/Galloway/Chomsky/Moore wouldn’t use as confirming evidence for his worldview and which wouldn’t then be cited in this way by anti-war bloggers!
Chris Bertram 04.05.04 at 9:30 am
Indeed, Anthony. Before I read your comment I added a further para pointing out that this isn’t just an issue for the pro-war side.
Anthony 04.05.04 at 9:50 am
The more important issue is the right course of action to be taken now. There is disappointingly large number of anti-war people who would actually delight in failure in Iraq because of the damage it would cause Bush and Blair and the personal investment they have put into the anti-war case. Let’s face it, the anti-war movement was never about protecting Iraqis.
When you say “if there is a functioning and independent Iraqi democracy within two years, which lasts for at least a further five” I take it for granted that you believe that to be a laudable achievement. For some on the left (not all) that would be the worst possible outcome, their visceral hatred of Bush, and for some America, means they find themselves wishing for a modern day Vietnam. Witness this stupidity.
Dan Shannon 04.05.04 at 10:08 am
This is an interesting bit of typically-conservative spin, if I’m not mistaken. Didn’t Donald Rumsfeld make the statement that we would be able to measure our success in Iraq by how often the Iraqis attacked those things that symbolized our success?
Yeesh. I wish I were a conservative, so that I could spin the truth 180 degrees when necessary to secure my own power.
Chris Bertram 04.05.04 at 10:12 am
Yes, I do think that would be a laudable outcome. I’m sure what you write is true of “some” on the left. But it is important to distinguish between what people hope for as a matter of substance and their natural tendency to crow, write “I told you so”, express Schadenfreude etc when their partisan opponents are proved wrong. For every instance of this on the left there are probably a dozen posts by Instapundit and the like which delight in the fact that some ghastly event exposes the (according to them) idiocy or naivety of lefties.
Dan Shannon 04.05.04 at 10:16 am
Anthony, I disagree with your assessment of the anti-war movement. Indeed, I think that the decentralized nature of the movement makes it impossible to determine what it was “about” to any degree more than “it was about opposing war.”
Speaking from personal experience, I would argue that most anti-war activists, myself included, believed that the Administration’s reasons for going to war—oil, profit, empire, etc.—would eventually taint any potential benefits for the Iraqis. The fact that the US isn’t planning to withdraw its military until 2005 is rather telling. So is the fact that Bush’s buddies are getting loads of juicy reconstruction contracts without bidding. Or that the Bush administration has consistently tried to disguise and misrepresent its motives with regard to Iraq. (What is it trying to hide?)
No, the liberals I have known are very concerned about the Iraqi people. They simply do not think that a nation’s people can be properly aided through war, imperialism, and domination.
norm 04.05.04 at 10:58 am
Chris
I linked to Christopher Hitchens’s article because I felt he made some valid points there (as I generally do think about Hitchens’s writing, though I know the view is not shared by many, maybe most, of CT’s readers). I do not, however, hold the view which you implicitly ascribe to me that all bad – as well as good – developments in Iraq vindicate the case for the Iraq war; and I don’t think my linking to the Hitchens gives you grounds for assuming that. Do bloggers necessarily endorse everything in items they link to? I don’t think so. Speaking for myself, categorically not. The post in which I made that link was on a quite different aspect of the Falluja episode: it was about different kinds of response to it.
As it happens, I mean to post (again!) in the near future and at some length on the case for the Iraq war and, in that context, to say something on the question of what would lead me to the conclusion ‘I was wrong’.
Apropos: I know several anti-war people who, when presented – by me – *before* the war with the rosiest of possible scenarios (just as a hypothetical possibility: Iraqi rejoicing, low casualties, quick outcome, rapid transition to a much more democratic order, etc), and asked ‘Would you *then* recognize you’d been wrong?’… said either ‘No’, or ‘Mmmm… not sure… international law, carte blanche for the US, Arab reaction…’
dsquared 04.05.04 at 11:06 am
I’m one of the people Norm’s talking about; I’d be prepared to admit I was wrong after approximately two hundred years if either the Iraq war didn’t run out to be the first of a series of American imperial wars, or the American Empire turned out to be a good thing for the world.
dsquared 04.05.04 at 11:08 am
by the way, I do tend toward the view that while linking does not constitute endorsement of every single word, if you’re linking to something which starts off with an argument as colossally bad as the Hitchens one does, it’s probably a good idea to warn your readers that the good bit doesn’t come right at the start.
Chris Bertram 04.05.04 at 11:18 am
Norm,
Of course I don’t think that linking _necessarily_ indicates approval and I’m happy to accept that you don’t take the view I implicitly attribute to you. I’d have thought it odd, though, to leave you off the list of bloggers who linked to the Hitchens piece.
My post was prompted not so much by reading your link to the piece, as that by SIAW, who explicitly single out the Fallujah-vindicates-the-war paragraph and comment (in their typically charming style):
bq. And here, for those in more of a hurry, is the main point, as unanswerable by the fools and liars of the “left†– and their new-found friends on the right – as the detailed questions set out elsewhere in the article.
norm 04.05.04 at 11:27 am
dsquared (or Dan, if that’s ok)
My post, and the earlier one it followed, was about different ways of characterizing the events in Falluja. Upfront on the Hitchens piece I linked to is something bang-on relevant to that (Heart of Darkness etc).
Some pedantry re your first comment on this thread: not one of the actual people I was talking about, since I didn’t know you then; but, yes, a person with the same kind of response (going on what you here say) as they gave.
dsquared 04.05.04 at 11:30 am
Sorry, yeh, I meant “I’m one of the kind of people Norm’s talking about”.
My mates call me Danny or d-squared, but Dan is fine too.
John Quiggin 04.05.04 at 11:36 am
I’d admit error if a nuclear weapon, or a large stock of ready-to-use chemical/biological weapons was discovered. This was, and remains, the official casus belli, so I’d suggest that proponents of the war should admit error when they are prepared to concede that this isn’t going to happen.
I would also have admitted error if the war had been followed by implementation of the “road map” for Israel-Palestine and a rapid improvement in relations between Islamic nations and the west. But it’s clear now that, if this should happen sometime in the future, it will be in spite of the Iraq war.
Finally, if the neocon fantasy had been realised – flowers in the street, rapid emergence of a democratic government etc, rapid withdrawal of most troops, the benefit-cost ratio would have been positive. But at this point, even if some sort of democracy does emerge, the opportunity cost in terms of lives, money, military resources and so on has been too high.
Anthony 04.05.04 at 12:00 pm
This [discovery of WMD] was, and remains, the official casus belli, so I’d suggest that proponents of the war should admit error when they are prepared to concede that this isn’t going to happen.
Since I supported the Iraq war for a variety of reasons, then I fail to see why I should be held to the only reason that the UN would accept.
And the truth is that despite the commonly held myth, which much of the media glibly re-enforces, that no WMD was found in Iraq, even Le Monde accepts that it is not that simple.
dsquared 04.05.04 at 12:11 pm
Since I supported the Iraq war for a variety of reasons, then I fail to see why I should be held to the only reason that the UN would accept
Well, if that one was in that “variety”, you ought to at least reassess it.
And your link appears to have a huge pile of “most likely” and “cannot be accounted for” and “suspects”, in the place where it ought to have a huge pile of nerve gas.
war, what is it good for 04.05.04 at 1:21 pm
I find this reasoning about what would vindicate the war a bit like saying that gambling is a virtue when you win and a vice when you loose.
So even when Iraq changes into a new Garden of Eden, some will still call gambling (this war) a vice.
I’d add that it seems appropriate to ask of everyone who seems certain of the rightness of their position on the war, whether there are any developments that would lead them to say, “OK, I was wrong.â€
Many arguments against the war remain valid regardless of the outcome. To give an extremely lefty opinion as an example:
War as a political tool of the powerful against the powerless is wrong.
This opinion wouldn’t change because of the outcome of the war.
The specific reason that I opposed the war was the misinformation. I don’t run an intelligence agency so I did not know the thruth of it all, but I do know when i’m taken for a ride. This was clearly the case with the WMD ‘facts’. From the dodgy dossier in the UK, the aluminium tubes story in the US, to the prime minister in the Netherlands who had seen the WMD evidence, found it convincing enough to support the war, but somehow couldn’t tell us about the contents because of the secrecy. If there were WMD in Iraq the misinformation would still be there. And when the next war approaches I would still be against that war when presented with such lousy info.
To conclude, I think judging a war by it’s outcome is a bit too opportunistic for me.
Jeremy Osner 04.05.04 at 1:32 pm
The complaint from pro-war quarters that the left is cynically hoping for the worst outcome in Iraq in order to discredit B&B is a bit rich. Before the war, some people warned that the results of going to war would be highly undesirable. Now when some of those predictions come to pass and the same people make note of this, they are accused of rejoicing in the negative outcomes — this makes no sense, they were not saying before the war “I hope that if we go to war anarchy breaks out” but rather “I predict that if we go to war anarchy will break out.”
Jeremy Osner 04.05.04 at 1:33 pm
See Joshua Marshall’s entry today for more in this regard.
Robin Green 04.05.04 at 2:37 pm
Yes, apparently the media is allowed to bombard us all with wall-to-wall propaganda that distorts matters in favour of the hawks for [b]months[/b], but if we make just one post, just one little post that even hints at “Sorry, look, we told you this would happen!” it’s then “rejoicing in negative outcomes”.
[/sarcasm]
It’s completely unfair.
Robin Green 04.05.04 at 2:37 pm
Yes, apparently the media is allowed to bombard us all with wall-to-wall propaganda that distorts matters in favour of the hawks for months, but if we make just one post, just one little post that even hints at “Sorry, look, we told you this would happen!” it’s then “rejoicing in negative outcomes”.
[/sarcasm]
It’s completely unfair.
Barry 04.05.04 at 3:08 pm
Jeremy, the theme ‘the left delights in the failures’ is a way for the right to dodge the blame for the war. Similarly, the ‘variety of reasons’ theme is a way of dodging the collapse of the reasons – until the last, most trivial possible reason is decisively disproven, the war is justified.
Anthony 04.05.04 at 3:32 pm
I find this reasoning about what would vindicate the war a bit like saying that gambling is a virtue when you win and a vice when you loose.
Except in gambling, we have a choice of whether or not to step up to the table and place our chips. In international affairs your chips are always on the table, there is no “non-gambling” neutral option. Inaction can be as dangerous as action, for both the Iraqi people and for us in the long term, unless people here believe that Saddam did not have weapons programmes that would have been reconsituted?
Jeremy says “Before the war, some people warned that the results of going to war would be highly undesirable.” Well, they were weren’t they and the worst of those have not come to pass. But are we seeing those people reassessing the risk-benefit of the Iraq war in the light of mass graves and lack of a huge conflagration in the Middle East? Thought not. If there is one thing we have learnt since Saddam fell, it is that he would not have fallen without action, and that inaction would have led to further suffering and potential future security risks.
Whereas instead we have the potential for something better and Libya re-engaging with the West and dismantling its weapons programme.
marky 04.05.04 at 3:41 pm
That was a terrible piece by Hitchens.
Usually I find his arguments slick, but this was a bludgeon. He takes a pure hypothetical and spins a rationale for the war on it.
Idiot.
marky 04.05.04 at 3:45 pm
I just want to add a thought: why is it considered reasonable for educated people to act as commentators on the entire spectrum of political activity? Tom Friedman is a perfect example: he is very knowledgable about the Middle East, but his commentary on European politics is just laughable. I don’t know Hitchens background, but does he read Arabic? Has he studied Iraq’s history? Why does the WSJ present his drivel rather than the informed commentary of Juan Cole?
This lack of expert reporting, and people refusing to stick to their area, is a widespread problem in modern journalism.
Bean 04.05.04 at 3:54 pm
Striking pre-emptively, having a casus belli based on lies, is never right, no matter how it turns out. If Iraq pulls out of this mess, it will not be because we invaded them illegally, it will be because they have had help from others, from our “allies” who’ve been working there too, from the UN and other relief agencies, and not least from Iraqis who are being handed lemons but who may make lemonade.
Suppose you were an unknown person who tripped up Christopher Reeve’s horse. Could you then take credit for the fact that he has given of himself so freely to the cause of curing paralyzing back injuries?
dsquared 04.05.04 at 3:58 pm
But are we seeing those people reassessing the risk-benefit of the Iraq war in the light of mass graves
Why would anyone reassess the risk-benefit ratio because of atrocities which a) everyone knew about anyway and b) were ten years old?
The fact that there were mass graves containing around 200,000 bodies in Iraq has been well-established for years. They date back to the 1987-93 period of repression of the Kurds and Shia. To use those mass graves as justification for war now is a little bit dishonest; to claim that they represent a “risk” which made war a necessity is completely so.
paperwight 04.05.04 at 4:13 pm
I actually wrote about this last week (not that my blog has much of a readership — I just thought it was worth mentioning for its own sake).
Using new information to argue that the original justification was well reasoned is a fundamental logical problem.
If you’re curious, the rest of the short essay is the top post on Paperwight’s Fair Shot.
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 4:21 pm
If we had all known before the war what we now know about Saddam Hussein’s (lack of) WMD’s, then many of us who supported the invasion would not have done so – even though we thought there were lots of other excellent reasons for wanting the regime gone. That was a crucial part of the mix.
But we *didn’t* know, and perhaps *couldn’t* have known, ahead of time. The lack of WMD’s is a huge embarassment (and has effectively killed Bush’s preemption doctrine) but does not in itself prove that we made the wrong decision. For that, one would need to show that our suspicions were not only wrong, but unreasonable. That case has yet to be proven.
As for the *Schadenfreude* issue, I don’t blame those who opposed the war for saying “I told you so” every chance they get. It’s human nature. But I do blame them when they support policies (e.g., immediate withdrawal) that are guaranteed to produce the disaster they predict, regardless of the consequences for the Iraqi people and for the West alike.
Maybe the Iraqi people are simply incapable of maintaining a polity that is more humane and friendlier to the West than under Hussein. Time will tell. But to give up on them *now* would be the height of irresponsibility.
Troy 04.05.04 at 4:31 pm
I’ll admit I’m wrong when the thousand or so dead servicemen come back to life, the thousands of soldiers whose lives have been shattered are made whole, and the $200B+ we’ve collectively borrowed and thrown down this fucking rathole is returned.
The Iraqis wanted liberty, they could have had it in a day. It’s not our place to liberate people by force.
Jason 04.05.04 at 4:35 pm
Why should there be an outcome that would change peoples minds.
You go to Vegas, you see the odds on a sports match (rugby – US v NZ). You see that the US are favourites and bet on the All Blacks to win, with a hefty 5 to 1 payoff.
The game ends up being a draw, does this mean you were wrong?
dsquared 04.05.04 at 4:36 pm
But we didn’t know, and perhaps couldn’t have known, ahead of time
I maintain that I did know ahead of time, and repeatedly said so, in writing. So did Scott Ritter and Andrew Wilkie.
But I do blame them when they support policies (e.g., immediate withdrawal)
Up until a couple of weeks ago, the US government’s official policy was that the US troops would be withdrawn as of 30 June. I think I missed your stirring condemnations of this policy.
Steve K 04.05.04 at 4:39 pm
The ‘variety of reasons’ theme isn’t meant to be a way of dodging the issue. It’s a recognition that most things in this world happen for more than one reason.
It was my view that the Allies chose to focus on WMD because it was the only thing the UN would accept. You couldn’t go to the UN and say ‘let’s get rid of Saddam because he’s an evil swine who runs arguably the world’s nastiest government and has broken the 1991 ceasefire more times than you can shake a stick at’, because several of the UNSC would say to themselves, ‘some of our best friends are evil swine’, and veto it.
As for myself, I assumed that Saddam was up to no good over WMD – and even the Guardian agreed last year that the Kay evidence showed Iraq was in breach of UNSCR 1441 – but it was not my main reason for being pro-war. It was simply that the Iraqis wanted him gone. And it’s more than just some pollsters who support that: there have been several national polls in Iraq which all come up with roughly the same answer, i.e. just over 50% support for the war, 30-40% against. Oddly enough about the same percentages as in the UK.
It’s perfectly fair to criticise the war on the grounds that Iraq was not a clear and present danger and fair to point to the suffering it entailed. Bush and Blair deserve to take flak for their faulty predictions. But the critics should be candid about their own faulty predictions, e.g. Amnesty’s prediction of 50,000 civilian dead and half a million refugees.
There is also the consideration that the favoured regime change option of the anti-war pundits was a revolt by the Iraqis themselves. Setting aside the issue of whether that was possible, it could hardly have happened without a civil war in which events like the Fallujah killings would have been routine. But not televised, which would have been easier for non-Iraqis to bear.
claude tessier 04.05.04 at 4:44 pm
Unless you believe in sympathetic magic (that wishing something makes it more likely to come to pass) I don’t see why proponents of the war get so worked about those nasties lefties.
As for your questions: “if there is a functioning and independent Iraqi democracy within two years, which lasts for at least a further five,…” You conveniently neglected to mention a cost – in American lives and treasure. For example, if Iraq gets the democracy you describe but it costs us 5,000 American lives and $400 billion, I would still be against.
What is your limit beyond which the cost exceeds the gain? 1,000 soldiers? 3,000? 10,000? ….
Motoko Kusanagi 04.05.04 at 4:45 pm
I agree with warwhatisitgoodfor.
In my opinion the position of the pro-war left (basically: “we should invade their countries and convert them to democracy.”) was fundamentally wrong. No outcome could repair that.
Timothy Burke 04.05.04 at 4:59 pm
I wrote about this a while back, “Warbloggers Circle Wagons, and I do think the obligation to predictively outline what developments would invalidate your views of the war (or any policy debate) should fall equally heavily on the proponents and opponents of any given decision. If three years from now, Iraq is a vigorous liberal democracy and many of its neighbors are pursuing, out of necessity, liberalizing policies, I would be the first to admit I was wrong.
It’s just that right now I view those events as highly unlikely for reasons that go far deeper than events in Iraq–it’s because I’m operating from a fairly deep and I think empirically very sound understanding of the conditions under which liberal democracies take hold that makes this event exceedingly unlikely in Iraq due to the particular circumstances of the US intervention there.
But everyone who wants to play this game honestly has to provision conditions of potential falsification. Most warbloggers don’t–when they lose the game, they move the goalposts. But so too do Chomsky and many others–Chomsky in particular provisions no possible point at which he would concede to other interpretations of contemporary events.
Timothy Burke 04.05.04 at 5:00 pm
I wrote about this a while back, “Warbloggers Circle Wagons, and I do think the obligation to predictively outline what developments would invalidate your views of the war (or any policy debate) should fall equally heavily on the proponents and opponents of any given decision. If three years from now, Iraq is a vigorous liberal democracy and many of its neighbors are pursuing, out of necessity, liberalizing policies, I would be the first to admit I was wrong.
It’s just that right now I view those events as highly unlikely for reasons that go far deeper than events in Iraq–it’s because I’m operating from a fairly deep and I think empirically very sound understanding of the conditions under which liberal democracies take hold that makes this event exceedingly unlikely in Iraq due to the particular circumstances of the US intervention there.
But everyone who wants to play this game honestly has to provision conditions of potential falsification. Most warbloggers don’t–when they lose the game, they move the goalposts. But so too do Chomsky and many others–Chomsky in particular provisions no possible point at which he would concede to other interpretations of contemporary events.
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 5:05 pm
dsquared:
So you and Scott Ritter “knew,” about the WMD’s, huh?
And Scott Ritter also “knew” that we had “already lost” the war – just before we rolled into Baghdad.
And you also “know” that “up until a couple of weeks ago, the US government’s official policy was that the US troops would be withdrawn as of 30 June.”
Well, hand-over of sovereignty, withdrawal of troops – whatever, what’s the difference?
Pardon me if I look elsewhere when I’m in need of expert opinion.
marky 04.05.04 at 5:09 pm
Vint,
Funny you mention expert opinion, since I mentioned that above. Scott Ritter is an expert on Iraq’s WMD capability, so his opinion there carries great weight. Outside of that area, his views carry less weight.
Anthony 04.05.04 at 5:19 pm
The Iraqis wanted liberty, they could have had it in a day.
How?
neil 04.05.04 at 5:45 pm
If it’s true what Hitchens says — that is, that war is justified against a country with a segment of the population willing to murder and desecrate the corpses of a group of innocent people just because of their race — then I’m sure he greatly regrets the fact that no one had the foresight to declare war on the U.S. in the ’20s. After all, those Americans were hateful and barbaric, and if I know one thing from reading conservative rhetoric over the last week, there is no hope of rehabilitation or improvement of a people who are willing to commit such crimes. Right? Right?
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 5:54 pm
Marky: the pity about “expert opinion” is that it is so often divided. So one must pick and choose. One tends to discount those who go around making confident but silly assertions about things they know nothing about.
In this case, lots of experts, including Saddam Hussein himself, got it wrong, and the absurd Scott Ritter stumbled into the truth.
Stranger than fiction.
Anyway, for the time being, the standard of proof for WMD allegations is going to be extremely high. Until the next time we miss something big.
BP 04.05.04 at 5:54 pm
Everybody strongly suspected that Saddam had prohibited weapons – chemical weapons and possibly some anthrax or ricin – but these aren’t weapons of mass destruction.
It was a dead cert that Saddam had no nukes, and El Baradei confirmed as much before the outbreak of the war. Iraq suffered enormous infrastructural damage in Gulf I and the ’98 bombings, and anyone with half an ounce of brains knew that there was zero chance that Saddam was “days away from nukes”. This includes the US and UK government.
It was a very handy rhetorical trick to lump chlorine gas along with nukes under the catch-all “WMD”, as it allowed the US/UK to invocate images of “mushroom clouds” while allowing the discovery of rusty cannisters with traces of Sarin to serve as resounding proof of “WMD”, since the vast majority of pro-war types were not going to entertain any abstract discussions about the essential difference between chemical weapons and nukes.
Unfortunately even this vastly lowered bar has not been cleared: Saddam appears to have been squeaky clean, not only with respect to nukes, but also with respect to absolutely piddling stuff – even actual weapons programs were absent, and we had to endure months of blather about how the desire to some day start weapons programs was the moral equivalent of actually posessing enough nukes to terrorize Western civilization.
And this is something neither the pro- nor anti-war side expected: both sides expected that Saddam would provide enough technical loopholes for the Coalition – ever eager to grasp at motivational straws – to use as an excuse for justification. Any shard would have done – even two mobile bioweapons trailers would have been figleaf enough – and to everybody’s great surprise, including mine, *there has not been enough figleaf to satisfy anybody at all*.
Sebastian Holsclaw 04.05.04 at 5:55 pm
“The fact that the US isn’t planning to withdraw its military until 2005 is rather telling.”
Sheesh you must have been REALLY sick of the US troops in Germany by 1980. And every time we even hint of withdrawing troops from South Korea, they have a cow.
Perhaps US troops staying a mere two years isn’t really that telling.
I don’t understand where you guys get the idea that neo-cons believed in a “rapid emergence of a democratic government” in the Middle East. Who believed that? Wolfowitz? Rumsfeld? DenBeste? I certainly didn’t. I think we all believed that it would be a tough 5-10 year infancy period (e.g. Japan and Germany) with a good 20+ years of follow-up (e.g. Japan and Germany).
I also find it somewhat odd that the same crooked timber contributers who have argued that Iraq will be tougher to democratize than Germany and Japan also argue that the window on deciding success should be shorter. How does that work?
BP 04.05.04 at 5:58 pm
“Anyway, for the time being, the standard of proof for WMD allegations is going to be extremely high”
Yes. Like a real smoking cloud, for instance. And *Iraq* was apparently worth that waste of credibility.
Brad 04.05.04 at 6:00 pm
There are two large constituencies (at least) for whom the near- or long-term outcomes of the war aren’t the issue at hand in deciding whether and why we favor/oppose the war. We favored or opposed the *means*, and now the ends are largely irrelevant.
For me, as an opponent of the war, it is quite clear to me that the war in Iraq was sold to the public with a long and systematic campaign of lies. I feel it is therefore a bad thing, not because of its own inherent merits or detractions, but because it was very bad for democracy and sets/continues a trend away from open and free society in the US. I suppose I could be convinced to be in favor of the war if, eventually, free and open society and government in the US benefits as a result, but I see that as rather unlikely; you’d have to prove the counterfactual that we couldn’t have done the same thing without lying- that it was essential to the ends.
For many in favor of the war that I know, it was equally the process of going to war that mattered most. The important point was exactly to show that we’re strong and pissed off and don’t give two shits about the UN, international law, alliances of other sorts, and the like, nor even about being particularly discriminating in our ass-kicking when disturbed. The means were the ends; to create a deterrent of fear. I suppose those who think this way could be convinced to oppose it if it proves to be antagonistic rather than deterrent, but it is my experience that it was an emotional/moral response for many, with deterrence as just a thin veneer over anger and revenge. (see: death penalty)
baa 04.05.04 at 6:02 pm
Bully for Vinteuil, but particularly for Anthony’s comments about the lack of a “no risk” option. If we view Iraq as a “state of concern” for the US, there are not really so many ways to go:
1. Invade
2. Aggressive force-backed-but-short-of-war attempts to deny a nuclear program/military build up
3. Support overthrow via domestic opposition
4. Sanctions
5. Nothing
The hawk view, essentially, was that the ” nothing plan” would lead to an unacceptable result: a nuclear-armed, Hussein-controlled regional power in 5-10 years. Further, hawks believed that the current sanctions regimewas rapidly resembling the ‘do nothing plan’ (and inflicted suffering on Iraqis into the bargain). Option three never looked too good to anyone given Saddam’s police state. And most hawks rejected the “war but not war” temporizing of option two as impracticable. Also, in the words of Michael Ignatieff, the military containment of Hussein still left “25 million Iraqis in jail”.
Of course, these judgement can be disputed. Maybe a nuclear armed Saddam in ten years ins;t so bad. Or maybe — as Micahel Walzer thought –option two had a real chance to work. That’s all fair game. But some of the frustration you see from the war-blogging hawks arises from suspicions that most war opponents didn’t then and don’t now present any positive solutions. They just want to attack Bush and Blair.
So let me pose this to the anti-war-leaning residents of this thread. If not invasion, what “solution” to the Iraq problem did you support?
BP 04.05.04 at 6:02 pm
“I don’t understand where you guys get the idea that neo-cons believed in a “rapid emergence of a democratic government” in the Middle East. Who believed that? Wolfowitz? Rumsfeld? DenBeste? I certainly didn’t. I think we all believed that it would be a tough 5-10 year infancy period (e.g. Japan and Germany) with a good 20+ years of follow-up (e.g. Japan and Germany). ”
You all undoubtedly believed it, but the war wasn’t sold to the US public as a 30 year exercise in nation building.
At least, that wassn’t the impression I got when you lot were screaming “Chamberlain! Hitler! Appeasement!” last year.
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 6:06 pm
bp: mostly right, but is “days away from nukes” actually a quotation? If so, from whom?
BP 04.05.04 at 6:12 pm
“What solution to the Iraq problem did you support?”
First the case has to be made that there was necessarily a problem to be solved for the US. A nuclear armed Iraq is a threat to its unarmed neighbors, but not to the US, nor to nuclear armed Israel; and as for the problem of a dictatorship controlling vast quantities of natural oil – that differs from the current situation exactly how?
baa 04.05.04 at 6:17 pm
bp, can I put you down for the “do nothing” option then?
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 6:19 pm
bp: I was largely up with you until “a nuclear armed Iraq is [not] a threat to the US.”
Uhhh…could you elaborate?
BP 04.05.04 at 6:25 pm
baa –
yep. I feel for the plight of the poor oppressed Iraqis, but I also feel for the plight of the poor oppressed sudanese, and I’m prepared to do squat all for both, as I suspect you are for the latter.
virteuil –
Pakistan has nukes. France has nukes. India has nukes. North Korea has nukes. The UK has nukes. Russia has literally enough nukes to wipe the US out of existence. Since they’re not sitting on vast resources in an area where the US feels compelled to exert an hegemonic influence, we rarely see people frothing at the mouth, or wetting their pants at the urgent danger they represent to the US.
war, what is it good for 04.05.04 at 6:26 pm
But everyone who wants to play this game honestly has to provision conditions of potential falsification.
I always had a dislike of this Popper theory.
It may be useful in understanding science, but when people apply it as dogma to all kinds of questions it looses its meaning.
What would be the use of stating that if the WMD evidence before the war would have been solid I would change my mind? That if I had liked war instead of disliked it that would alter my position?
When you had based your opinion of the war on predictions about the outcome, then it could be relevant to check those predictions with reality.
But that also has limited value, because the alternative decision of not going to war, has not been taken and therefore cannot be checked against reality. So anyone opposing the war can simply get out of this argument by saying that without war the world would have been so much better that the achievements in Iraq pale by comparison. Or the other way around. An example from this discussion:
Inaction can be as dangerous as action, for both the Iraqi people and for us in the long term, …
which can be a valid opinion, but you can’t compare the not going to war option against reality.
Which gets me back to my original position that
to judge a war by it’s outcome is a bit too opportunistic for me.
And that essentially prevents the application of falsification.
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 6:26 pm
baa: with respect to your option 2 above…does it *include* sanctions, with all the attendant innocent suffering? Or might it have been workable without them?
claude tessier 04.05.04 at 6:43 pm
So how many dead American soldiers would be too many?
Or is that too tough for you?
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 6:45 pm
bp: ah, ok. If you think what set Iraq apart from France, India the U.K. and Russia was the oil, then I guess I’m less with you than I thought I was. Pakistan, of course, is another matter. I hope “constructive engagement” (obviously impossible with Hussein’s Iraq) will work there. We’ll see.
I guess “days away from nukes” was not a quote.
Anthony 04.05.04 at 6:50 pm
In January of 2002 Saddam called a meeting at which his son Qusay spoke:
“We know , and the brother here all know, that we have – with God’s aid – every capability and ability. With a simple sign from you, we can make America’s people sleepless and frightened to go out into the streets… I only ask you, sir, to give me a small sign. I swear upon your head , sir, that if I do not turn their night into day and their day into a living hell, I will ask you to chop off my head before my brothers present”
Given fiery rhetoric like that and an unwillingness to play ball with the UN is it any surprise that he should have been seen as anything other than a long-term threat?
baa 04.05.04 at 6:57 pm
All:
I really can’t stress enoguh my desire to hear what other commentators thought was a better Iraq solution. I didn’t ask it in the spirit of being a wise-ass, I really want to know. Honest, Millian, marketplace of ideas and all that. I’ve already seen on this thread an excellent selection of sharp, informed, anti-war voices: Tim Burke, Chris Betram, John Quiggin, DD, etc. What was the positive policy you envisioned? And if you think “do nothing†is an unnecessarily polemical phrasing, I understand that “watchful waiting (the strategy advocated by Leon Fuerth, I believe) would be another way to put it.
Vinteuil:
That’s a great question. I don’t know exactly what “2” would entail — in large part because I’ve seen no one but Walzer discuss it at length. The practical problems seem to me very great. Nonetheless a scheme of force-backed disarmament does seem consistant with relaxation of santions/increased humanitarian assistance to Iraqis
bp: I think the Sudan and Saddam’s Iraq, while perhaps analogous in their brutality, are disanalogous in other ways. Specifically, I think Saddam’s Iraq posed a greater threat to US strategic interests as it was a) stronger, b) richer, c) more hostile, d) closer to nuclear capability, e) more prone to pan-arabist/ commander-of-the-faithful provocation vs. Israel, f) right next to Saudi Arabia.
BP 04.05.04 at 6:58 pm
virteuil –
You might care to refresh my memory on the connections between al-Qaeda and Saddam, or why it would be easier for Iraqi nukes to slip into the hands of extremist terrorists of whatever stripe than, say, Russian Israeli, Pakistani, Indian or nukes
BP 04.05.04 at 7:24 pm
baa –
No-one has explained why US strategic interests in the region matter, or why dictators won’t sell us oil, or why I should give a fig about the House of Saud, or for that matter why I should care whether the hegemon in the Middle East is Iraq or the US. If Saudi Arabia needs to defend itself from Iraq, let them buy nukes – heck, if that bothers you enough, pressure your local representative to get the US to sell them a couple. If MAD worked against Stalin, it’ll work against Stalin Junior.
Rajeev Advani 04.05.04 at 7:52 pm
I haven’t had a chance to read all the preceding comments in this thread yet, but just to answer Chris’s question:
I’ll call myself wrong the instant Iraq breaks into unmitigated civil war. That scenario is the only thing worse than the rule of a depraved tyrant for both the Iraqi people and the future of the Middle East, and fear of that scenario was the only thing that kept me on the fence for so long during the run-up to the war.
If it happens, I would have been wrong for putting so much faith in the Bush administration — but even awash in wrongness I would still frown at those in the peace movement who reflexively opposed this liberal intervention.
(to my knowledge, nobody on this site falls into that category; I’m referring to the Chomskys and Tariq Alis who would feel vindicated the very moment liberal interventionists admitted they were wrong).
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 8:08 pm
bp: my position on “connections between al-Qaeda and Saddam” is the same as the administrations: skeptical. In any case, I didn’t bring it up. So please calm down.
In your answer to baa, you answered a whole pile of questions that he didn’t ask. It might be even more interesting to learn your answer to the one he *did* ask.
Which option? Or what?
marky 04.05.04 at 8:16 pm
Funny, Rajeev doesn’t mention the possibility of an Iraqi uprising against the US. Apparently that would be better than having saddam still in power.
BP 04.05.04 at 8:28 pm
virteuil –
You must have missed the part where I said “yep” when baa asked if he should put me down as a “do nothing”.
Let me be clear.
Do nothing. No thing. Not my business. Hands off. Leave it alone. Leave it alone the way we are leaving Sudan alone, and Zimbabwe, and a host of other places. If the Iraqis want our help, let ’em ask for it. They want Saddam out, let them kill him. What is he, Superman? He’s an old man with a bad heart: I bet he couldn’t bench press 20 pounds without collapsing. How many Iraqis are there, 25 million? How hard can it be?
BP 04.05.04 at 8:31 pm
virteuil –
baa asked a direct question, which I answered; read his post more carefully next time.
Vinteuil 04.05.04 at 8:45 pm
Sorry bp, missed your “yep.”
Not even sanctions or “containment,” huh?
Well, it’s a position, I guess.
Timothy Burke 04.05.04 at 8:53 pm
Rajeev: is that assessment regardless of the costs and duration of the occupation? This is one of the questions I have about some cases for the war. At least some of them seem to be made with a pragmatic assessment of costs; those can be quite readily predictive about the cut-off point where the good end goal of having Saddam out of power would run into unsustainable costs.
If, on the other hand, the cost is unimportant as long as Iraq doesn’t break into open civil war, then I really have to wonder. All results are good short of open civil war even if the results are extraordinarily costly in terms of human lives, money and lost moral and political capital (aka ‘soft power’)? That’s a sustainable argument, I suppose, but only from the position of an absolutely rigid moral absolutism.
That position also runs into the problem that all humanitarian interventionists have encountered. This is pretty much the only case for war left standing: the national-security argument is in ruins, the democratic domino-theory looks pretty weak; the only other argument on the board was referenced above, which is the need to demonstrate a willingness to use force in order to create a general deterrent. The humanitarian interventionist who is willing to pay any price for the defeat of Hussein’s tyranny, and willing to argue that only total civil war would make the cure worse than the disease, must immediately explain how they can justify failing to pay that price in six to ten other nations right now. The logic of humanitarian intervention at any price, with almost no condition that would be deemed a failure, requires that we immediately occupy North Korea, Zimbabwe, Congo, Somalia, Equatorial Guinea, and several Central Asian states at a minimum. There is literally no way to stop short of that in the most expansive humanitarian arguments for the war–and anyone who tries must be immediately laid open to the same screams about appeasement that were liberally distributed at critics of the war last year.
Anthony 04.05.04 at 9:07 pm
The logic of humanitarian intervention at any price, with almost no condition that would be deemed a failure, requires that we immediately occupy North Korea, Zimbabwe, Congo, Somalia, Equatorial Guinea, and several Central Asian states at a minimum.
Let me know when the Stop the War Coalition plan a march against French Imperialism in the Congo.
baa 04.05.04 at 9:15 pm
Timothy Burke:
“the national security argument is in ruins”
Really? That’s not the way I see it at all, unless the national security argument was based *solely* on the presence of chemical and biological weapons stockpiles.
Here’s a hypothetical. Let’s say we’re granted omniscience on November 1st, 2002, and that we then *know* that Saddam has no stockpiles, but intends to acquire nukes as soon as the sanctions let up. To me, that’s a big national security problem. And one which leaves the US with the same five lousy options I outlined above. Do you think otherwise? And which option would you have chosen in this case?
That said, you are of course right that the benefits of humanitarian intervention need to be weighed aganist the costs. I doubt Rajeev was advancing so strong a claim.
McColl 04.05.04 at 9:27 pm
I’ve read the comments so far with interest because I am truly confused by hawks’ continued support of the war. We (by which I mean everyone without security clearance) now know that Iraq did not pose a clear, and present danger to the US. Why–and please be truthful–is it better for US interests that Hussein is no long in power? Yes, of course, he was a bad, bad man and the Iraqi people were suffering, may he and his burn in hell. But how does that relate to US national interests? (Don’t get me wrong: I’d love to buy the world a coke, and I myself would start in the Congo.)
Call me sentimental. It seems to me that with regard to Iraq’s ability to manufacture means to harm the US, the pre-Bush II policy was working. So, for you hawks out there, please clarify why this war was in the best interests of the United States. As a patriot, I’d like to know.
John Quiggin 04.05.04 at 9:32 pm
What was the alternative policy you envisioned?
I agreed with the policy that was publicly stated until late 2002 – threaten Saddam with war if he didn’t declare his (putative) weapons and admit inspectors. On the evidence we had then, there was good reason to suppose he had all sorts of weapons. But once the inspectors went in, it became apparent that this was (at least) far from certain.
I would have continued as follows. Once Saddam admitted the inspectors, let them do their work. Once the inspectors found he was clean, drop all but purely military sanctions subject to a continuing inspections regime to prevent him restarting the programs he abandoned in the early 90s.
Meanwhile focus attention on our other problems e.g, bin Laden, Israel-Palestine, the general lack of democracy in the Middle East. Given reasonable success on those fronts over, say, five to ten years, we could come back to Saddam in various ways. For example, the US could join the International Criminal Court and its jurisdiction could be extended to past crimes. Then Saddam could be charged for his real crimes.
Bear in mind, the issue in March 2003 was not “war or no war”, but “war now, or wait three months”. Those who supported war have to justify it as against the option of waiting three months.
Timothy Burke 04.05.04 at 9:52 pm
Baa:
That’s an interesting point. Let’s say that the national security argument as it typically was made in the run-up to war is in tatters, because it rested on the actual possession of readily deployable WMD or in the imminent possession of same.
The argument you make is a more intricate one and it takes us into some of the domains that were being explored before war by a few but which clearly need further exploration regarding two things, first, the degree to which Saddam Hussein and his inner circle were or were not rational actors and second, the degree to which it is possible to know even if you know the intentionalities of other state actors what the likely future course of events might be. What your hypothetical omniscience might have to note, for example, is not just whether Hussein would move to acquire nukes in the absence of sanctions, but whether said desire would result in real programs of acquisition, whether said program of acquisition would result in actual acquisition, and whether acquisitions would result in planned or threatened uses of same.
I think it’s reasonable, working backwards, to suppose that nukes in Hussein’s hands would have been a threat because of planned or threatened uses. But what’s now emerging from the WMD hunt is that the desire for WMD by autocrats cut off from reality and surrounded by sycophants may not translate into actual programs of acquisition, any more than the world needed to fear Idi Amin acquiring a intercontinental ballistic missile when he said he wanted one. But I agree this is easy to say now and hard to say then. What might be needed at this juncture from both war advocates and war critics is a reasonably honest, fair-minded conversation about how we know what other actors in the world might do, and about how good our general understanding of the architecture of states and causality in the world really is.
Donalld Johnson 04.05.04 at 10:48 pm
A small quibble. Someone upthread said that the death toll wasn’t 50,000 as predicted by AI. In fact, I saw predicted death tolls that went into the hundreds of thousands and if Iraq really had possessed massive quantities of WMD’s and used, them, then maybe millions. Which is one reason why I didn’t believe in the WMD’s, because no one planning the war seemed very concerned about the apocalypse they were about to unleash.
Now getting back to the smaller but still massive death toll predictions, we don’t know what the toll actually was. The civilian deaths were in the 4-10,000 range, apparently, and the Iraqi military lost more, or so I’ve seen estimated. And I’ve seen stories online (but don’t have a citation handy) that say the infant mortality rate went way up after the war, because the destruction of the infrastructure (this time by Iraqis rather than by the US military as in 1991) caused the same sort of public health problem after the Gulf War. So predictions of tens of thousands of deaths were probably in the ballpark.
Was it worth it? You’d have to ask the Iraqis and you might get many different answers, some of them involving gunfire. As for me, if we’re going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on these “altruistic” projects, I’d rather do it in more cost-effective ways. There’s this AIDS crisis in Africa I keep hearing about, and malaria, and TB, and children dying of diarrhea, for God’s sake. I bet a hundred billion dollars would go a long way if thrown in that direction.
Shaun Evans 04.05.04 at 11:00 pm
“Tis with our judgements as our watches; none go just alike, yet each believes his own.” Alexander Pope, “Essay on Criticism”
I believe that much of the sound and fury surrounding this debate is that we have no shared set of rules of evidence, no shared set of values.
Rajeev Advani 04.06.04 at 12:15 am
Timothy: It’s a good and often heard point you bring up regarding humanitarian interventions, that if we engage in one we must then engage in all, lest we fall victim to hypocrisy.
Before I address that, let me qualify my comment above by saying that I don’t support liberal interventions regardless of cost. Engaging in a McNamara-esque moral calculus here (I hate to do it, but it must be done), I’d say that the number of deaths we’ve sustained so far is worth the end goal, especially considering the death tolls of past invasions. When would I reverse this conclusion? Either when open civil war breaks out, or when the death toll looks to reach, say, Vietnam-era proportions. But I think it is very safe to say that those two statements are one and the same: the death toll will not reach Vietnam-era proportions unless open civil war breaks out.
(Regarding Marky’s observation, a general uprising against the US is to me equivalent to an open civil war — for it would surely result in one — so I do not think I elided that point).
Finally, regarding humanitarian interventions. To my knowledge nobody has come up with good schematic for judging when they are necessary, although many (like Monbiot recently) have called for one. What I do not agree with, however, is your claim that if we engage in one humanitarian intervention we must necesarily engage in all. This is the “dangerous precedent” logic that so often results in nihilism.
For example, suppose I employed this logic while cleaning my room. I would not be able to clean out my closet unless I simultaneously scrubbed my floors. And I would not be able to wash my floors unless I simultaneously cleaned my closet. The alternative would be to clean one, take criticism from the anti-cleaning coalition, then recover from the first task and clean the other. And if I spend so long deliberating on which to do first, I may very well run out of energy and do neither.
The point is this: Even if I did support humanitarian intervention at any price (which I do not), I would not be required to support intervention in six to ten other countries right now as you say. The United States does not have the resources to do that (as the room-cleaner in my analogy had only two hands), and so sequential interventions, spaced between three to five years, are an agreeable position for one who supports intervention at any cost. (I’m not sure if there are any such people, by the way — but I argue for them regardless) Furthermore, for these people there is also room for strategic decisions: they can deem it worthwhile to invade Iraq, but could just as easily decide that an invasion would make things worse in, say, Turkmenistan. Similarly, the room-cleaner could make a sound decision that while mopping his floors is worthwhile, cleaning the closet is futile — it would be more effective to just toss the closet and all its contents into the trash.
roger 04.06.04 at 1:46 am
This pro and anti war debate strikes me as so exactly wrong — both about the issues then and the issues now — that it has to typify some deep strain of wrong in the discourse of the “clercs.”
I opposed the war not because I supported Saddam Hussein. Far from it. I didn’t believe war was necessary to effect regime change, but I thought the U.S should be trying to effect regime change. But war at that time seemed inappropriate; it seemed to be constructed by the administration in power out of fantasies and lies; and the administration’s purpose seemed to be less the creation of an independent Iraq than of a satellite of the U.S with all the rhetorical trappings of democracy, and none of the stuffing. Chalabi was to play the role of Somoza, or the Guatamalan general, or any number of U.S. puppet figures.
This didn’t happen, partly because the defense department conned itself with its Con man, partly because of the resistance. Here we have a case where taking political sides using absolute good and evil as your guides would get you nowhere. Who could support a resistance that consists of thugs, torturers, and the power mad? Who could support an occupation that consists of exploiters, filibusterers, and the dregs of every rightwing lobbying group in D.C.?
But their clash actually created a good thing — an opening for Iraq to be a sovereign nation — with an emerging civil society. This happened between the two hostile parties, and it is still a fragile structure.
However, what is amazing is that people can cast their views in concrete at a certain instance and then throw mud at each other as the circumstances accumulate — without paying attention to the fact that these circumstances were predicted by neither side. It is as if, in the pro war/anti war fight, the Iraqis themselves don’t exist — they have merely a dramatic insistence, allegorical figures for the “true” battle between good and evil.
Which, down deep, is one’s most persistant reason for skepticism about western interventions. They still happen within an overwhelmingly racist context; the real people over whom concern is shown exist as children or monsters, but never as adults with their own reasons or interests; and the appeals for ‘neutrality,’ for shaping the discourse in terms of scientific proof, unconsciously imports into history that most unhistorical idea, that a principle can exist there without circustances — emerging ex nihilo, and referenced as a sort of supernumerary thing henceforth.
I can only shake my head, man. Wow.
Timothy burke 04.06.04 at 2:36 am
Rajeev: That’s a good metaphor for prioritizing humanitarian interventions, but I feel that the kind of logic it implies was entirely absent from the planning for this war, and largely remains absent when war proponents accuse critics of being “soft on Saddam”. I see almost nowhere before or after the war a logic that says, “We begin the process of humanitarian intervention in this place [Iraq] because it is the best possible place in which to begin the general project of humanitarian intervention”.
It’s rather the problem I have now with a well-meaning campaign for a living wage at my own institution. I don’t disagree that a living wage is a good thing, but it’s going to be costly. If I’m going to be asked to approve a costly new program, I want to first have a conversation about the entire universe of good things that that money might be spent on rather than presuming that the first one raised is the right one.
Certainly this argument means that no one has the right to accuse prudential detractors of the war with approving or tolerating Saddam Hussein’s rule. The first person who makes that accusation opens themselves wide to the counter-accusation of failing to clean the whole house all at once, because they offer no metric that tells us why they want to clean one room rather than another. From my perspective, even if you approve of humanitarian or liberal intervention, Iraq was exactly the wrong room to clean first.
james 04.06.04 at 2:57 am
I supported the war because Iraq had several violations of the 1991 cease-fire agreement. As a matter of policy, I believe the US should aggressively enforce cease-fire treaties.
According to the Geneva Convention, any chemical or biological weapon is automatically classified as a WMD. Obviously, ricen wasn’t the threat people where sold on. Most people where envisioning nuclear weapons.
The Middle East is important because of oil. Not for the reason the anti-war commentators frequently bring up. Right now, if the region collapses for any significant length of time, the world economy collapses. That is a fairly important national security issue.
I too would be interested in active, pro-active alternatives to war in Iraq.
Troy 04.06.04 at 2:59 am
anthony: The american colonists were free as of July 4, 1776. Though the ensuing civil war took 7 long years with numerous reverses (and critical help from the french monarchy).
As for the request for a Plan B from this non-war supporter, leave the iraqis to sort their own problems out.
The present argument is echoic of the samn damn argument of 35 years ago — was the destruction of the village necessary to save it?
Troy 04.06.04 at 3:11 am
My general answer to the pro-war people on this thread is that imperialism has its limits, and the Coalition of the Willing was not sufficient to materially (positively) affect the course of events in the mideast.
*if* the intervention had been truly one of humanitarian purpose then everything in its lead up would have been different, and I would have had a different appreciation of these altered facts on the ground from a year ago.
Recasting arguments to another time, not supporting US intervention for various authoritarian dictatorships in Saigon was not one of these “objectively pro-Ho Chi Minh” deals IMV.
Jeremy Osner 04.06.04 at 3:58 am
Timothy: even if you approve of humanitarian or liberal intervention, Iraq was exactly the wrong room to clean first.
Thank you. I have not seen this more clearly stated and it is exactly right.
(My problem with Rajeev’s entertaining analogy is basically that war is entirely unlike room-cleaning; you may have to break a few eggs to make an omelet but it struck me as entirely too breezy a way to think of war, which after all consists of destruction of cities and of people’s lives.)
Rajeev Advani 04.06.04 at 5:25 am
Timothy:
If I’m going to be asked to approve a costly new program, I want to first have a conversation about the entire universe of good things that that money might be spent on rather than presuming that the first one raised is the right one.
I totally agree with you on this; my biggest problem with the Bush administration is their disrespect for the public. They act as though Americans would not be interested in such a campaign; I think they would be, and that it should be discussed. (Wolfowitz et al should keep blogs, in other words)
From my perspective, even if you approve of humanitarian or liberal intervention, Iraq was exactly the wrong room to clean first.
I would put it differently: Iraq was the most radical and revolutionary place to start. Domino democracy would not be out of the question if Iraq developed a thriving economy and open political system in the next decade, but it is far from certain that this will happen. Iraq carries the largest payoff for democracy along with the most ominous risks. In an earlier post (or the comments to it) John Quiggin noted that Kuwait would be a better starting place. As I said there it would certainly be the sounder option, but the effect would not have been as profound as the revolutionaries in the White House desire. As a side-note, it’s interesting to note that those who gravitate toward revolutionary ideology (read: ex-Trotskyist Hitchens) are often attracted to the neoconservative vision of full-fledged regime change in Iraq.
Finally, to Jeremy regarding distasteful metaphors: I’m usually careful about being insensitive, and I think this one was ok. A repugnant analogy is one that trivializes the life and death of civilians and soldiers: for example, Kissinger calling his bombing operations in Cambodia “breakfast”, “lunch” and “dinner” because of their timing. If anything, I’d say my analogy was on the same moral level as metaphors employed by realist theorists; i.e. states are a bunch of pool balls that occasionally collide with one another. They’re just trying to abstract the logic away from the emotionally charged zone of international relations.
Curtis Crawford 04.06.04 at 6:07 am
Chris Bertram wrote: “. . . it seems appropriate to ask of everyone who seems certain of the rightness of their position on the war, whether there are any developments that would lead them to say, ‘OK, I was wrong.’ ”
A splendid question, mostly unanswered in the discussion. Answers might come most easily from people who had some clear rules about making war. For example, an absolute pacifist would have no difficulty in explaining his opposition to the war, regardless of the benefits and harms as weighed after a year. But most of the discussants seemed to judge whether to make war based on weighing various plausible (largely unknowable) good vs bad consequences.
I have never found an absolute pacifist position persuasive in international relations. But there are some moral principles that should govern whether making war is permissible. They are fundamental to the UN Charter, and as applicable to the mighty as to the weak.
Making war may be justified as
1. Defense against armed attack. Or when
2. Authorized by the UN Security Council in response to a threat to international peace.
Making war is not justified
1. To overthrow dictatorships or
2. To intervene in civil conflict.
liberal japonicus 04.06.04 at 9:03 am
John Quiggen wrote:
I agreed with the policy that was publicly stated until late 2002 – threaten Saddam with war if he didn’t declare his (putative) weapons and admit inspectors. On the evidence we had then, there was good reason to suppose he had all sorts of weapons. But once the inspectors went in, it became apparent that this was (at least) far from certain.
I would have continued as follows. Once Saddam admitted the inspectors, let them do their work. Once the inspectors found he was clean, drop all but purely military sanctions subject to a continuing inspections regime to prevent him restarting the programs he abandoned in the early 90s.
This would have been great, but the problem was that the irrational actor seems to have been the US, refusing to believe Saddam. I realize that Saddam didn’t give anyone much cause to believe him, but, really, what could he have done to prove that he had no WMD other than go into exile? Or to lie and say ‘you got me, I’ll destroy them’ and then quickly create some to destroy. Short of that, there was nothing that Saddam could have done to prevent the US invasion. And I have to think that the fact that there have been no WMD discovered (I should add that I supported the invasion on the premise that there were WMD and my impression of the portrayal of Saddam’s brutality was to demonstrate that he was not a rational actor, not as a reason for war) must give the ‘arab street’ cause to think that all the talk of bringing democracy is so much hot air. And what, exactly, could the US point to that would have them change their minds?
Chris Bertram 04.06.04 at 9:36 am
Unfortunately, trackback only works with MT blogs, but contributors to this thread may be amused to read “the response that has appeared at SIAW”:http://marxist-org-uk.blogspot.com/2004_04_01_marxist-org-uk_archive.html#108118654864301653 .
Kimmitt 04.06.04 at 9:39 am
For instance, if there is a functioning and independent Iraqi democracy within two years, which lasts for at least a further five, then I think that ought to shake the convictions of hardened opponents.
If this takes place, I’m converting to Protestant Fundamentalism and joining the Cult of Bush. I’m not kidding.
baa 04.06.04 at 2:56 pm
Go out for dinner and you miss a lot on this thread.
John Quiggin: thanks for the response. I don’t know if you read the pieces by Michael Walzer on containing Iraq, but I think you’ll find a lot to like there. The suggestion you make is, I think, a reasonable option: military sanctions and an ongoing inspections regime. The concerns about this program are largely (but not entirely) practical: inspections were only seriously restarted when 150,000 US troops camped out on Saddam’s border. This led many to suspect that any effective sanctions/inspections regime could only exist while the threat of invasion was live. This requires a massive garrisoning of the Middle East, and one that isn’t obviously sustainable by the West. Frankly, I think many people concluded (but, you would be fair to criticize: did not say) that this approach replicated many of the costs of war with few of the benefits, and would collapse the moment political will wavered.
Timothy Burke:
Also, thanks for the response. You’re right, there’s a significant gap between the argument I outlined and the administration’s pre-war emphasis. I suspect that’s because barrels of sarin constituted an explicit violation of UN resolutions in a way the obvious intention to acquire nuclear weapons and high probability of succeeding did not. More’s the pity for the UN resolutions, in my view, because poison gas shells don’t really matter — they don’t augment the strategic menace posed by Iraq in the way nuclear weapons do. But the Administration went the UN route (partially) and thus needed to stress the factors that would convince that audience. I think the real debate on Iraq should have emphasized two questions. First, is a nuclear-armed Baathist Iraq an aceptable outcome? Second, if no, how do we prevent that from happening? If you answer yes to the first question, the answer to the second is either John Quiggin’s solution, or invasion. Is it fair to note *at this point* that one of these solutions is both more certain to remove the threat *and* is likely to have better humanitarian results? That is, to use humanitarian considerations as one among the tie-breaking factors in how to resolve a security threat?
Chris 04.06.04 at 9:22 pm
As it happens, I asked Hitchens exactly this question when I got a chance to meet him. I wrote about it on my old site:
http://www.seewhy.blogspot.com/2003_06_01_seewhy_archive.html#95296673
armando 04.06.04 at 11:44 pm
Thats a fairly chilling answer you got, Chris. The first part I can live with, if you are right you are right. But, as you say, risk is not a virtue when thousands of lives are at stake. I think that sums up one of the reasons why I never believed in the war as a humanitarian exercise.
You have to actually care about the people you are saving in order to make the case that you are acting in order to save them.
msg 04.08.04 at 5:41 am
The US invaded Iraq to liberate the Iraqi people from a brutal dictator.
But that can’t be true, because nothing that’s happened since the invasion aligns with that statement of purpose.
There has been no liberation, no relief from suffering, only more and more suffering, an almost official contempt, and less and less recognition of Iraqis as a people in need.
They have become the enemy.
The second-level, more cynical, reason given, was that the oil deposits that underly Iraq will become increasingly important as global supplies diminish and population and technological development both increase.
So the US invaded to guarantee a stable supply of petroleum.
But that can’t be true either, can it?
Because nothing that’s happened so far, and nothing that’s been proposed, seems geared toward a stable local economy, which would seem necessary to guarantee access to those oil deposits.
–
So why are American young people dying in Iraq?
Without seeing any hard data I’m confident the social strata represented in the death counts are virtually synonymous with big-box employee lists back home.
So number one, American young people are dying because their lives don’t matter anyway. Their lives are as disposable in Iraq as they are in Wal-Mart.
The next question would be – who benefits from things as they are, now, in Iraq?
And there’s only one answer to that.
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