Reduce and reuse before you offset

by John Q on April 2, 2008

Following up on Chris’s post a little while ago, it seems obvious that the best way to offset emissions from travel is not to travel at all. I’ve been trying hard to reduce air travel, and making some progress, though it isn’t easy.

I’m doing my first videoconference presentation for the year on Friday, appropriately enough at a University of Sydney one-day seminar on the economics of sustainability. My talk will be on “Uncertainty, awareness and the precautionary principle”. I’ve lined up two more videoconferences for the first half of this year, and I hope to do some more in the second half.

The other part of my plan to reduce my carbon footprint and the amount of time I spend travelling is to make one trip cover multiple events. I’m in Melbourne right now, for a visit that includes three presentations and several meetings.

With all this, I’m still travelling a fair bit more than I would like. But I think there is a network effect here. The more people get used to videoconferencing as an alternative, the better it will work, and the more demand there will be for technical improvements.

{ 52 comments }

1

Tom 04.02.08 at 10:53 pm

I made the decision not to get on planes for holidays a few years ago – this is tough my family live part time in India, my brother in Thailand and until very recently my sister in Sri Lanka. Trying to make this commitment without coming across as being overly sanctimonius or judgemental, in a family that loves to travel, is very tough. Even harder is trying to convince yourself that a trip to Hadrian’s Wall in November is as relaxing as two weeks in Southern India. Ho hum.

2

mollymooly 04.02.08 at 11:22 pm

Roll on the carbon tax. Let the polluters pay and pass the dissavings on to us, the customers.

3

tom bach 04.02.08 at 11:43 pm

Buy a bicycle and ride everywhere (or at least somewhere); it does make a huge difference. Well, if more people would buy bikes and ride everywhere it would make a huge difference but of course they won’t because it violate some natural law or another dealing with the necessity to live a life that depends on cars. After all, had not our ancestors had cars they would never have managed to get from where it was they first came from to wherever it is that we now are.

4

DennyCrane 04.02.08 at 11:53 pm

I’ve decided to fart less.

I figure a fifty percent reduction in emissions should help global warming no end (no pun intended). If it achieves little else, it will at least make me feel smug – smugger?

5

floopmeister 04.03.08 at 12:31 am

John,

As a fellow Australian the difficulties of living on a largely empty continent need to be recognised…

Any sort of travel in an Australian context does require longer distances, unlike say in Europe. From London to a conference in Berlin does not begin to compare to flying from Brisbane to Perth.

I would image that travelling by fast train from London to Berlin might be practical in a business sense (timewise), while from Brisbane to Perth by train…

Well, let’s just say it would need to be a bloody fast train.

The Tyranny of Distance, and all that.

6

Crystal 04.03.08 at 3:08 am

I believe there are a lot of people who would welcome a rise in teleconferencing and a reduction in business travel. Far from being a pleasure and adventure, business travel in the US is often a dreary round of Applebee’s and mid-priced hotels near airports. Whee. I bet there are lots of us who don’t even need the environmentalist excuse to welcome a less travel-intensive business culture. Many people would rather spend that time with their families (or pets, or outside interests).

Far harder (not even really do-able, IMO) is persuading people with far-flung families and loved ones that they should’t travel to visit them. It’s one thing to cut back on business travel, it’s quite another to say you shouldn’t take the kids to visit their grandparents, or your homesick spouse his or her homeland. And chances are, your family isn’t going to take “I’m sorry, I can’t visit you, it’s bad for the planet” very well.

Certain kinds of travel are far more easy to cut back on than others. We live in such a global society (cliche, but true) that I doubt it would be feasible to eliminate travel, or go back to the 14th century and all of us live, marry and die within our villages.

7

Psyche 04.03.08 at 3:31 am

For a half million dollars, you can buy a videoconferencing setup that will blow your mind. (As you can probably imagine, the chief market for these things right now is corporate executives who like convincing their companies to buy them expensive toys to play with – but hey…beats flying the corporate jet around.)

Also, while it’s true that eliminating air travel probably isn’t feasible or desirable, this is one of those things where if everyone cut back a bit, it would make a huge difference.

8

Ingrid Robeyns 04.03.08 at 5:20 am

When I lived in New York in 2004, I was invited to give a talk in Cambridge Mass, and asked whether I wanted to travel by train or rather fly. I was utterly shocked – it’s only a few hours by train… as long as flying on such a short distance is considered sane, some people’s mindsets do need to be rebooted.

I like the idea of pro-actively trying to cluster different talks and visits together.

9

andyoufall 04.03.08 at 5:59 am

True, it is a few hours by train, but these are not Euro-train-hours… rarely have I taken Amtrak (or gone to a train station to pick up someone taking Amtrak) that the train was not fabulously lately.

The real solution for Boston-NYC is Feng Wah and its epigones, of course.

10

SG 04.03.08 at 6:08 am

I think it is really stupid that Australia hasn’t long ago accepted the benefits of videoconferencing, telecommuting etc. People fly huge distances from one capital city to another to discuss the problem of dying rural communities and the answer is right there – move the responsible government department into the country and find a way to make teleconferencing and distributed decision-making work. If ever a nation needed to get that right, it’s Australia.

I don’t eat meat and haven’t since I was 18, nor do I drive a car. I figure that gives me a lot of carbon offsets I can burn how I like. John, if you really care about how your personal consumption habits affect this issue, eat a quarter as much meat. But my personal preference is to make air travel cost more, and find ways to get businesses to do it less. Why should we forgo our holidays because some stupid business is making Ingrid fly on a perfectly reasonable bus trip?

Ingrid, I had the same experience as you with an overnight trip to canberra. My work insisted I fly, even though it was a 3 hour bus trip. It cost them more, but the wierd thing is they had no problem with me crashing on my friend’s floor and pocketing the per diem. Their reasoning was clearly stated – only plebs catch the bus.

11

Great Zamfir 04.03.08 at 7:31 am

I am not so sure about videoconferencing. I have worked for a European company large enough to have its own full-size flights between its headquarters and the other units, so it invested serious amounts in videoconferencing to save travel cost.

But the guys implementing ‘advanced communication methods’ said the effect was often contradictory. The more people got used to electronic communication, the stronger they would work together with teams in other countries, and in the end they would need only more flights.

By the way, they said the most popular communication method wasn’t videoconferencing, but an (IP) phone call with connected PC desktops, so you could show Powerpoints and other documents on the other person’s screen, and point with your mouse at relevant parts.

12

Ben Alpers 04.03.08 at 8:12 am

Since nobody else has pointed it out…

Immanuel Kant, who is responsible for, among other things, this site’s name, managed to have a brilliant international career without ever leaving Königsberg. And all without videoconferencing.

13

dsquared 04.03.08 at 8:32 am

I think the moral is clear – we need to arrange things for the next CT board meeting so that Kieran does all the travelling, as his carbon footprint will be reduced to the extent that he will spend that amount of time not living in an air-conditioned First World city in the middle of a desert.

14

Tim Worstall 04.03.08 at 9:29 am

“Roll on the carbon tax.”

Indeed, although it might not change things quite as much as some think.

Stern told us the social cost of CO2 was $85 per tonne. Thus the tax should be that much. That’s 11 p on a litre of petrol: and UK fuel duty is already north of 50 p per litre. And it’s been raised by 23p per litre since 1993 specifically (as part of the fuel duty escalator) to pay for said emissions.
Or Air Passenger Duty. On a pure emissions basis (ie, not using the still slightly controversial 3 times multiplier for CO2 emissions at altitude) this is roughly correct on the Stern CO2 numbers (£20 on the half tonne my short haul flight next week will emit).

If we accept the basic logic of Pigou Taxes, that as long as people are indeed paying the full costs (including externalities and social costs) of their actions no further action need be taken it would appear that the UK’s transport sector has already solved the problem.

15

Dave 04.03.08 at 10:45 am

@14, yes, but that’s bollox, isn’t it? because no-one is actually using the fuel duty to pay for any actual countermeasures against the effects of the actual carbon emitted. Perhaps you know that, and are being ironic, it’s hard to tell.

16

Barry 04.03.08 at 11:29 am

Dave, more like he’s being Tim Worstall.

Ingrid: “When I lived in New York in 2004, I was invited to give a talk in Cambridge Mass, and asked whether I wanted to travel by train or rather fly. I was utterly shocked – it’s only a few hours by train… as long as flying on such a short distance is considered sane, some people’s mindsets do need to be rebooted.”

Considering the h*ll that so many airports are, and the additional h*ll of getting to and from the airport, I can’t see flying for a 3-hour train trip.

17

CK Dexter 04.03.08 at 12:10 pm

Also apropos from Kant: “Nothing can possibly be conceived in the world or out of it that can be called good without qualification except a good will.”

In other words, if I can’t save the world, screw it–and myself, and my family–I’m saving my precious, precious, soul.

Or there’s Nietzsche: “If we read from a distant star, the block capital script of our earthly existence might perhaps lead one to conclude that the earth is the inherently ascetic star, a corner for discontented, arrogant, and repellent creatures, incapable of ridding themselves of a deep dissatisfaction with themselves, with the earth, with all living creatures who inflict harm on themselves for the pleasure of inflicting harm — evidently their single pleasure.”

18

rea 04.03.08 at 12:18 pm

Far from being a pleasure and adventure, business travel in the US is often a dreary round of Applebee’s and mid-priced hotels near airports.

Don’t forget the TSA, which I’ve become convinced has been taken over by a bunch of environmentalists intent on stopping global warming by sabotaging air travel.

19

Tim Worstall 04.03.08 at 1:20 pm

“Perhaps you know that, and are being ironic, it’s hard to tell.”

Indeed, I do know that but no, no irony intended. Because the point of such taxation isn’t to raise funds to develop new technologies, nor is it in fact to *stop* climate change. It’s to ensure that we get the socially optimal amount of it.

Climate change is going to impose some costs down the road. Stopping climate change will impose some costs now. This is pretty much what the whole argument is about: how much should we be willing to spend now in order to reduce costs in the future? One answer is that we should impose costs now up to and equal to the damages in the future. If we spend more than that then we are making ourselves poorer than they in the future. If we spend less then obviously the reverse.

If we want to carry the burdens equally across the generations we thus want the prices of what people do now to reflect the damages in the future. If we are forcing people to pay more than their costs, then we are making people now poorer than those in the future. If less, then the reverse.

Thus, once we’ve worked out what those costs are (Stern’s $85 a tonne and, given the extremely low discount rate he used we don’t really have to worry about time values) as long as emissions now bear the costs that will arrive in the future then we’ve got the socially optimal amount of climate change.

Ye, things people do now will have costs for those in the future: but then, not doing things now for the sake of those in the future has costs to those now.

You might note that nowhere in the Stern Review is there actually a suggestion that we *stop* climate change: it’s all a discussion of how much we should do about it: the same logic as I’ve outlined above.

Now I have to admit that I don’t entirely buy this logic myself but as I understand it this is the argument that is being made and which underpins the global discussions.

Perhaps John Q could put me straight if I’ve garbled it?

(I would note that if people were spending the revenue so raised on technologies to beat climate change then I’d be a beneficiary of some of that spending: but I’m hesitant to suggest that they ought to just for my benefit.)

20

Alex 04.03.08 at 1:45 pm

Because the point of such taxation isn’t to raise funds to develop new technologies, nor is it in fact to stop climate change. It’s to ensure that we get the socially optimal amount of it.

Which means the same thing, for amounts falling within the estimated tolerable range. Basically, the rest is merely pompous flabble disguising the point that, come what may, whatever the arguments, whatever the facts, Tim will still line up with the deniers, because that’s the political identity he chooses to maintain.

Not being completely stupid, he has permitted the flat earthers to drift further to his right, and he’s now even tracking relatively to the left of the Lomborgian psuedo-middle way, but he’s still in the party of no.

Leaving would require a metric shitload of cognitive dissonance, and anyway would queer his gig with TCS.

21

George 04.03.08 at 2:30 pm

Far from being a pleasure and adventure, business travel in the US is often a dreary round of Applebee’s and mid-priced hotels near airports.

Well, and getting hammered at strip clubs on the company dime.

I don’t fly at all. Maybe I could sell myself as sort of a ‘personal offset’? Or, would I have to fly a bunch first, and then stop flying?

22

Hidari 04.03.08 at 3:44 pm

‘But my personal preference is to make air travel cost more, and find ways to get businesses to do it less’.

Taxation is not the answer and it’s strange to see people on a liberal blog advocate flat VAT style taxes, which are inevitably regressive. The answer is to work out some points system, and then use that in some form of income tax style way, such that rich people who travel a lot (or better still, rich companies who insist that their employees travel a lot) pick up the bill.

The other way to do it, and this is not an either/or is simply to legally limit the amount of flights (or air miles) people can take each year. Indeed if global warming really takes hold, I would imagine that by 2050 or so flat bans on non-essential flights for everybody will be a necessity.

23

jj 04.03.08 at 4:30 pm

I recently viewed a DVD (The Dimming of the Sun?) which concluded that the atmospheric pollution produced by airline travel contributes to a reduction in solar radiation, and that elimination or any radical regression in the rate of airline activity will accelerate the rate of global warming.

24

Crystal 04.03.08 at 6:19 pm

@22: Yes, definitely, if there is going to be a limit placed on flyer miles/travel that will have to be directed especially at companies. I could see allotting companies X number of miles per year that their employees could take for business travel.

Otherwise, if there are legal limits on travel miles directed solely at individuals – I could see a situation where a person would be forced to use his or her travel allottment all on business travel, leaving nothing left over for family or pleasure use. “You flew to Podunk twice, and East Jesus Nowhere three times for business? Why no, you cannot fly to see your father who is dying of cancer! Tough noogies – you’ve reached your limit!” Poorly thought-out and enforced travel rationing could end up this way, and would go over like the proverbial lead balloon.

25

aaron_m 04.03.08 at 7:12 pm

Tim,

If the tax is going to achieve the ‘social optimum’ it has to change existing behaviour. Thus what you say just suggests that Stern has made a bad guestimation. I know, I know, your reply is that this is just not what calculating the social optimum is about. If 85 is the price and it does not change behaviour this must mean we do not have enough emissions expansion yet.

Well I raise you an additional two hundred years to the economic model. Do like the economists, make economic choice theory work for you.

26

tired of blogs 04.03.08 at 7:53 pm

I made the decision not to get on planes for holidays a few years ago – this is tough my family live part time in India, my brother in Thailand and until very recently my sister in Sri Lanka. Trying to make this commitment without coming across as being overly sanctimonius or judgemental, in a family that loves to travel, is very tough. Even harder is trying to convince yourself that a trip to Hadrian’s Wall in November is as relaxing as two weeks in Southern India. Ho hum.

I’d give up flying for work before I’d give up flying to see family. Besides, if you not flying to see them just means they’re going to fly to see you, there’s no net savings, and maybe even a net loss if there are more of them flying your way than there would be the other way around.

27

Tim Worstall 04.03.08 at 8:07 pm

“Leaving would require a metric shitload of cognitive dissonance, and anyway would queer his gig with TCS.”

Alex, please do wake up. That smell the roses thing? I just laid out the logic of the Stern Review. Not of Exxon, not of TCS, not of any denialists….

“Climate change is going to impose some costs down the road.”

Denialist? Please, get a grip, eh, there’s a good chap.

28

jj 04.03.08 at 9:23 pm

In a stunning investigation, NOVA reports on the discovery that the amount of sunlight reaching Earth is dropping–a big surprise given international concern over global warming. Less sunlight might hardly seem to matter when our planet is stewing in greenhouse gases, but the discovery of global dimming has led some scientists to claim that the earth’s climate is heating up much faster than most previous predictions.

Scientists have long known that increasing air pollution endangers our respiratory health. But they had not fully considered the impact of pollution on the amount of sunlight reaching Earth. Some scientists now believe that global dimming may disturb rainfall patterns and contribute to severe droughts and famines.

The good news is that, in some regions, pollution controls have slowed and possibly even halted global dimming during the last decade. The bad news–and the ironic twist in this story–is that without pollution, we will no longer have the cooling effects of global dimming. Instead, we may be confronted with the true power of global warming, which we may have seriously underestimated due to the dimming sun.

http://shop.wgbh.org/product/show/8561

29

John Quiggin 04.03.08 at 9:30 pm

Tim, I think Aaron is pretty much right at #25. The $85 is Stern’s estimate of the tax that would achieve stabilization at 550 ppm, not his estimate of marginal damage. If $85 doesn’t do anything, then the tax has to go up.

30

Bernard Yomtov 04.03.08 at 10:10 pm

True, it is a few hours by train, but these are not Euro-train-hours… rarely have I taken Amtrak (or gone to a train station to pick up someone taking Amtrak) that the train was not fabulously lately.

The real solution for Boston-NYC is Feng Wah and its epigones, of course.

Try again. I ride Amtrak often between NYC and Boston, and find it very good about keeping to schedule. I’ve never been significantly late, and am generally right on time.

Fung Wah is fine if you don’t mind the bus catching fire sometimes. Still, there are competitive bus services springing up at only somewhat higher fares.

31

Sortition 04.03.08 at 10:55 pm

I support Hidari’s air travel quota system. Why should the rich be allowed to pollute more? The system could also cover ground travel and home energy consumption.

32

Alex 04.04.08 at 12:05 am

Shorter Timmeh: Climate change won’t cost anything, and if it will the market will price it in, and despite this the government report I poured hate and scorn at the time accurately estimates it, not that that this means doing anything, so let’s do nothing, QED!

Shorter me: Fuck you.

33

Great Zamfir 04.04.08 at 8:16 am

It might not be $85 per tonne, but there is surely an amount of money that is higher than the marginal damage of extra CO2. If someone is willing to pay this amount, the amount is high enough, and the money is used for the greater good in some sense, than that must be better than not having the CO2 emission at all, or not?
The greater good could mean directly invested in green energy, or in coastal protection, or better education, or just a tax refund. As long as the money goes from the polluter to everyone else.

For people who want to have a flight cap for everyone, or even a CO2 cap, without the possibility to buy more rights: this sounds fair at first, but the rich will still be rich. If they want to spend their money on CO2 emmissions, with the money going to the rest of us, that’s probably a better outcome for all involved than if they spend it on something else.

Sure, this all relies on a tax amount that is high enough. i don’t know if that amount is $85 per tonne. But a ball park estimate should be possible to make.

34

Mike 04.04.08 at 11:35 am

Far harder (not even really do-able, IMO) is persuading people with far-flung families and loved ones that they should’t travel to visit them. […] And chances are, your family isn’t going to take “I’m sorry, I can’t visit you, it’s bad for the planet” very well.

Tough. I live 12,000 km from my parents, and we see each other every weekend via video link (iChatAV). Works fine; they get to see the kids, we get to chat about the latest (which generally isn’t all that much), and we see each other more than we ever did when we were living in the same city.

People need to grow up. It wasn’t that long ago that mom & dad would gather up the kids, get on a boat, and head off for a new life in a new land, and the folks behind would never hear from them again. Or, at best get a letter once in a blue moon, if the winds and tides were favourable.

Telecommunications technology now keeps us in constant, almost excessive contact; there’s no longer an excuse for physically travelling back to the homestead more than once every few years, at best.

35

Dave 04.04.08 at 11:49 am

@34: absolutely, quite agree. Of course, the entire basis of current western [and increasingly non-western] society is that people can do what they like, when they like, and hang the externalities; so getting people to accept such limits might be a] a little tricky, and b] really quite bad for an economic structure that runs on people paying other people to do stuff that is, looked at rationally, a complete waste of time and resources… You may, like me and I suspect many others, detest the pointless shit that is ‘western consumer culture’, but without it, a significant percentage of all of us would be unemployed and penniless. Or rather, rioting in the streets…

36

Slocum 04.04.08 at 1:10 pm

You may, like me and I suspect many others, detest the pointless shit that is ‘western consumer culture’, but without it, a significant percentage of all of us would be unemployed and penniless.

I don’t think so — I don’t think you really detest it. Look around your room. What do you see? How much of it consists of products of ‘western consumer culture’? If you’re like me, nearly all of it. How much is ‘pointless shit’? I’m having a hard time seeing any pointless shit. Around me I see:

* a few hundred books
* a couple computers and related gear (printer, scanner, cable-modem, wireless router, etc).
* an MP3 player, headphones
* a cell phone, a regular phone.
* a digital camera
* a guitar
* an electric razor, sunglasses, a bottle of sunscreen
* pens, pencils, a swiss army knife, a stapler
* a desk, an office chair, a sofa
* a briefcase, a backpack
* a coffee mug
* lamps, speakers, a rug, a waste-basket

So as I sit here, I am surrounded by mass-produced products of western consumer culture (and so, probably, are you). Which things do you think are ‘pointless shit’? Because if I stop to think about it, I’m amazed. What a fantastic collection of artifacts of human ingenuity and creativity there is in my little office here. Seriously.

And the same for travel — I’ve loved the places and people around the world I’ve visited. Let’s not pretend we’re giving up nothing of value when we contemplate the end of that. Life was NOT better when relatives who moved away were never heard from again and most people spent their entire lives in a 50 mile radius.

37

Mike 04.04.08 at 1:33 pm

Which things do you think are ‘pointless shit’?

I think you could live quite comfortably with the one computer and without the mp3 player, the cell phone, and the electric razor, for starters.

What a fantastic collection of artifacts of human ingenuity and creativity there is in my little office here.

No doubt. The question is, at what price do we continue to manufacture billions of these amusing little trinkets? In the absence of unlimited energy and resources, I submit that a culture that values cool toys over fundamental requirements has a skewed sense of priorities.

Life was NOT better when relatives who moved away were never heard from again and most people spent their entire lives in a 50 mile radius.

I didn’t say it was. But, thanks to people who think that flying a few thousand kilometres on a whim to quell their homesickness or assuage their guilt, or on yet another holiday, (and, of course, doing it fast) are condemning all of us to return to that way of life, as the means and the resources to engage in such travel become prohibitively expensive, are exhausted, or are too damaging to the planetary ecosystem to be used.

38

Dave 04.04.08 at 2:13 pm

Umm, pointless shit like buying a new 60″ HDTV because the 42″ one you bought last year isn’t exciting enough; pointless shit like replacing that phone and MP3 player as often as you can be persuaded to do so with new, marginally different but indisputably more shiny models; pointless shit like that, and like any of those other profligate, self-indulgent habits which a multi-billion advertising industry is dedicated to getting us to continue?

I mean, duh. And since my point was that we’d ALL be up shit creek, economically, if the general population did in fact stop wasting its money, and that’s the system we’re in whether we like it or not, I find your reply simple-minded in the extreme.

Nobody [barring a few, statistically insignificant, domestic accidents] NEEDS a new TV in the next 12 months, but can you imagine the economic impact if no one BOUGHT a new TV for a year? Or a new car, on the same premise? When an economy cannot function without encouraging people to put themselves into debt in order to own things they don’t need [one trillion pounds of personal debt in the UK]; that’s pointless shit.

39

Stuart 04.04.08 at 2:34 pm

And since my point was that we’d ALL be up shit creek, economically, if the general population did in fact stop wasting its money,

Aren’t you just reformulating the broken windows fallacy here?

40

Slocum 04.04.08 at 2:44 pm

I think you could live quite comfortably with the one computer and without the mp3 player, the cell phone, and the electric razor, for starters.

But mere comfort is a pretty low standard–even though, of course, for most of human history even that was rare. That it is widely available now (in the developed world, anyway) is, itself, an outcome of consumer culture and mass-production.

But why (other than your own aesthetics) do single out the cell phone but not the land-line phone as unnecessary? Or, come to that, why pick on the cell-phone and not the internet connection? And why the MP3 player and not other forms of recorded music? And my understanding is that electric razors have a smaller energy footprint (when you account for the years hot water and shaving cream used during the life of an electric).

But in any case, ‘unnecessary for comfort’ isn’t the same at all as ‘pointless shit’, is it?

No doubt. The question is, at what price do we continue to manufacture billions of these amusing little trinkets? In the absence of unlimited energy and resources, I submit that a culture that values cool toys over fundamental requirements has a skewed sense of priorities.

Well, at least you’ve upgraded your estimation from ‘pointless shit’ to ‘amusing little trinkets’ to ‘cool toys’, so that’s a lot of progress in a short time. But even there — it’s a big stretch to call anything my list a ‘toy’ or ‘trinket’ except maybe the iPod*.

I just don’t understand the advantage of sneering.

But whether you sneer or not, the answer is the same — price the resource usage into the products and let people decide on their priorities (and let the manufacturers figure out how to minimize the resource usage to keep the prices down).

——————
*What the hell is it about lefties and iPods? They all have ’em and use them all the time, but they seem to love to trash them. But when you compare my tiny little 2 oz iPod with the receiver, turn-table, tape deck, speakers, and hundred pounds of vinyl I used to have (or even the huge stack of CDs), obviously the iPod represents a vast reduction in resource usage. Not even taking into account the fact you don’t have to physically ship recordings around the world and schlep them home from the store. No need for the factories, or distribution centers, or fleets of trucks, or record stores. Isn’t the MP3 player the perfect example of how we can keep (or even improve) the function while drastically reducing the footprint?

41

Slocum 04.04.08 at 3:00 pm

Umm, pointless shit like buying a new 60” HDTV because the 42” one you bought last year isn’t exciting enough; pointless shit like replacing that phone and MP3 player as often as you can be persuaded to do so with new, marginally different but indisputably more shiny models;

Ah, it’s not the shit itself that’s pointless, it’s the frequency of the upgrades? Well, that’s a completely different point. So would you agree that a 60″ HDTV is a wonderful thing — but just not enough more wonderful than a 42″ model to justify the upgrade?

Well, here — this should make you feel better. As of last year only a quarter of Americans had an HDTV at all:

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/13/28-percent-of-americans-now-own-an-hdtv/

So the fraction who’ve upgraded from a 42-incher to a 60-incher must be very much lower than that.

42

BKN 04.04.08 at 3:56 pm

Mike @ 34 et seq.:

“Once you’ve tasted turkey, you ain’t gonna settle for tripe.” –Jed Clampett, “The Beverly Hillbillies”

43

lemuel pitkin 04.04.08 at 5:52 pm

Taxation is not the answer and it’s strange to see people on a liberal blog advocate flat VAT style taxes, which are inevitably regressive.

Wrong on all counts.

If every individual policy choice has to be distributionally neutral or progressive, then it becomes almsot impossible to get anything done. (Which is often, though of course not always, exactly the reason tehse issues get raised.)

The feasibility — both administrative and political — of any kind of tax or fee depends on its being as transparentpredictable and painless to pay as possible — but these goals are often in sharp tension with trying to vary the tax or fee by income. And at the end of the day, the impact of e.g. steep air travel fees on the distribution of income is trivial. If it is regressive — which is questionable — the effect is utterly swamped by thousands of much bigger factors.

The distribution of income should be addressed directly by the tools suited to taht purpsoe — strong unions, labor-market regualtions, progressive taxation of income and wealth, social insurance. Enironmental policy should address environmental goals — that’s hard enough on its own!

44

Dave 04.04.08 at 5:58 pm

Aren’t you just reformulating the broken windows fallacy here?

Eh?

I was recalling, amongst other things, the near-legendary exhortation of GWB to the American consumer after 9/11 to keep shopping….

It remains the case, and I fail to see what bearing any of slocum’s remarks have on that case, that the pointless extravagance of the consumer marketplace is what keeps the global economy functioning at its enormously high level of activity, and that any trend of large numbers of individuals towards a more considered, long-term approach to their own needs and desires, especially in relation to any, entirely laudable, aspirations to consume less at an absolute level, could and would be disastrous.

If, say, the replacement cycle for new cars dropped from whatever it is now to, say, twice as long – when cars do, after all, have a very long lifespan after their first user passes them on – what impact would that have on the auto manufacturing sector? Or, ceteris paribus, if only half as many people this year as last replaced their washing machines, or their fridges? And if that effect was duplicated across all the other consumer-durable sectors, while people also spent half as much on long-haul holidays, etc etc…

After all, isn’t that spread of prudence and caution exactly what the US financial system is desperately hoping won’t happen, and probably already has, re. housing?

Will someone explain how I’m wrong, and how the global economy will keep going just fine if extravagant consumer habits end? I’m not pleased about this, y’know, but it does seem to be the reality of the situation. I’d be, in fact, quite glad if it wasn’t.

p.s. I’m Dave, the other guy was Mike, you’re confusing us – both four letters, tough I know.

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lemuel pitkin 04.04.08 at 6:32 pm

Will someone explain how I’m wrong, and how the global economy will keep going just fine if extravagant consumer habits end?

You’re not wrong so much as very confused.

Shifting consumption via relative prices (or preferences, in the case of voluntary actions) has nothing whatever to do with aggregate demand.

The closest one can get to a snesible idea from your comments, is that more sustainable patterns of consumption will include a higher proportion of nontradables reltaive to tradables, and so may pose challenges to countries whose development model is highly dependent on exports.

But if your question is, as it seems to be, “is there an economic law that says 10 percent of household expenditure must be on cars and other durable goods,” the answer is, No.

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Slocum 04.04.08 at 6:52 pm

any trend of large numbers of individuals towards a more considered, long-term approach to their own needs and desires, especially in relation to any, entirely laudable, aspirations to consume less at an absolute level, could and would be disastrous.

Economic growth does not require ever increasing tons of pig iron and cement. Economic growth is perfectly compatible with lighter, smarter, more efficient, better (and also tastier, prettier, and safer).

Except for houses and cars, virtually every manufactured product one buys now requires less in raw materials than the equivalent product did 25 years ago. And houses and cars have certainly shrunk before (while still continuing to improve).

If, say, the replacement cycle for new cars dropped from whatever it is now to, say, twice as long – when cars do, after all, have a very long lifespan after their first user passes them on – what impact would that have on the auto manufacturing sector?

But the replacement cycle for new cars has steadily lengthened as cars have become more reliable:

http://www.wheels.ca/article/191892

And it really doesn’t matter how long the original purchaser keeps the vehicle, what matters is the overall service life. (On the other hand, how long do you really want the current low MPG fleet to last)?

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lemuel pitkin 04.04.08 at 7:09 pm

Except for houses and cars, virtually every manufactured product one buys now requires less in raw materials than the equivalent product did 25 years ago. And houses and cars have certainly shrunk before (while still continuing to improve).

Right. Substituting skilled labor for raw materials is a gain from just about every perspective.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, in 50 or 75 years, the US employs several times more people in agriculturee than currently, with much higher per-acre yields and much lower inputs of fossil fuels and chemical fertilizers. And these jobs will likely be much more skilled and well-compensated than farm labor today. At any rate that — rather than a global depression — is the direction that the green consumption trend points in.

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Slocum 04.04.08 at 8:07 pm

Right. Substituting skilled labor for raw materials is a gain from just about every perspective.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, in 50 or 75 years, the US employs several times more people in agriculturee than currently, with much higher per-acre yields and much lower inputs of fossil fuels and chemical fertilizers.

Yes, I’d agree…sort of. I’d expect the skilled labor in R&D rather than in farming itself. I’d expect to see higher per-acre yields and lower inputs of fossil fuels, chemical fertlizer, and farm-workers — but higher inputs of ag engineers, plant geneticists, entomologists, etc. I’d not be at all surprised to see autonomous farm equipment, for example (a much easier problem to solve than the Pentagon’s effort to create autonomous road vehicles). Hell, make that solar-powered autonomous farm equipment.

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John Quiggin 04.04.08 at 8:41 pm

I’ll have a piece on the compatibility of improved living standards with environmental sustainability (particularly, large reductions in carbon emissions) coming out soon in the Australian Financial Review. Maybe a preview here before that.

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lemuel pitkin 04.04.08 at 9:46 pm

I’d expect the skilled labor in R&D rather than in farming itself.

I would say “in addition to,” not “rather than,” but for the purpsoes of this discussion the poit is the same.

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Crystal 04.05.08 at 1:21 am

John @49: It would be great if you had a preview here! That subject is interesting, not to mention contentious.

Failing a preview here, you might provide a link to any online content.

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Dave 04.06.08 at 12:02 pm

Of course, silly me, I was forgetting. Technology and free markets will save us. Thanks for clearing that up.

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