US Elections open thread

HOPE!

from US – to y’all:

https://youtu.be/8w2zjKmj-QE

As was said when the same two sides (with different names) faced off in Kansas more than 150 years ago, may victory go to the side which is stronger in numbers, as it is in right.

Just so; but also, may it happen with less blood shed than in Kansas at that time.

As I mentioned on your blog, another country which has an election within the week is Burma/Myanmar. Of course that’s less important for the people of the world than the US election, but it’s still probably a more important event for the people of Burma. I think Burma can also serve at this juncture as a salutary reminder of two things: one, that bad as things are in the US, they could be worse; two, that they could get worse.

Predictions:

Biden will win (it’s now essentially impossible for Trump to win, unless something unprecedented happens in the next 24 hours).

Probably (who knows? But probably) it will be a clear victory for Biden, so there will be no Bush type ‘supreme court’ shenanigans.

There will be no major civil unrest (let alone ‘civil war’). A few idiots might wave guns about in staged events which go viral on Twitter, but that’s it.

Trump will not ‘fail to leave office’.

Trump will not declare himself to be a dictator, or a Russian Manchurian candidate, or whatever else has been predicted by deeply silly academics and journalists with too much time on their hands.

The Democrats will take Congress, possibly even the Senate (although that is unlikely…more likely nearly take it but not quite).

After the election, things will continue pretty much as they were before. It’s kind of in Trump’s and the Republican’s interests now to badly mismanage things (I mean even more than they have done so up until now) so that Biden faces a deeply problematic situation when he comes into power, so fasten your seat belts until January.

In the new year….things will continue pretty much as before. Biden will probably be slightly better than Trump on the domestic economy, probably (if anything) slightly worse on foreign policy in terms of actions (although not in terms of treaties and diplomacy more generally). Probably slightly better on environmental issues. He won’t magically solve the covid-19 problem because the US’ mismanagement of that problem has a lot to do with the US’ private health care system, and the destruction (begun by Reagan) of the public sphere, so that train is going to keep on rumbling down the track for the next 2,3, maybe even 4 or 5 years.

Anyone who deviates from the new neoconservative/neoliberal consensus will be smeared as a Russian/Chinese agent, and most ‘liberals’ will go along with that. The pivot to China will continue, preparatory to the inevitable war or wars, which (here’s hoping!) won’t actually break out for another 20/30 years or so.

And that’s it. Not a particularly consequential election, nor an interesting one. It never looked for one second as if Trump might win, and the most astounding thing about this election and the run up to the election is how dull it’s been.

”The Dark and Evil Times Are Over”.

and I nearly forgot we defeated THE STUPID with ”Germangate”:

https://youtu.be/bzx1MmP-nqw

Lee A. Arnold,

With the usual caveat IANAU (I am not a US-American), I really don’t see where you are coming from there. Even a cursory examination of what Republican politicians say and what their supporters write on social media demonstrates that one half of the US considers the fact that a minority of the population regularly gets to determine the president and the composition of the senate as a desirable feature of the system. Item one, the usual maps colouring counties by their political leanings followed by the conclusion that those tiny blue specks (which contain >60% of the population) shouldn’t “dominate” the majority of the country (i.e. mostly empty space). Item two, “we are a republic, not a democracy”, as usually entirely unencumbered by any understanding of what the word republic means.

I have no idea what will happen except that I strongly doubt Trump will win comfortably. I expect that one of two possible scenarios will unfold. Either Biden will win so comfortably that Trump has to concede. Or the result on election day will be narrow or a slight Trump lead, as voters coming in on election day lean R and many D’s have already voted early by mail. This then followed by Republican attempts to shut down counting of the mail ballots in any state where they think they can get away with it and Democratic leadership too timid to do anything beyond appealing to judges chosen by Trump for just that eventuality.

More generally, and this thought is certainly not original to me, I am afraid that the best that can be hoped for is a respite for two to four years while things return to supposedly ‘normal’ (meaning Democrats governing as what would be an economically and foreign-politically conservative party in Europe against Republican scorched earth obstruction) and none of the structural deficiencies of the US system are reformed – Senate, electoral college, massively politicised judiciary, money-driven election campaigns, gerrymandering in the absence of independent electoral commissions, arbitrary purges of voter lists, arbitrary closure of polling places, arbitrary ID requirements without making it easy to get ID, etc., and that is not even mentioning real problems such as global heating or economic inequality.

And in four or eight years there might be another Republican president who thinks Democrats should never be allowed to win any election but who is more competent than the present one, and that would then be that.

More generally, and this thought is certainly not original to me, I am afraid that the best that can be hoped for is a respite for two to four years while things return to supposedly ‘normal’ (meaning Democrats governing as what would be an economically and foreign-politically conservative party in Europe against Republican scorched earth obstruction) and none of the structural deficiencies of the US system are reformed …

It is clear that many people are hoping for better than what you describe, and therefore it would not be correct to say that what you describe is the best that it is possible to hope for. If you expect those hopes to be disappointed, your expectation may be fulfilled, but hopes and expectations are (and should be) different things.

Alex SL @9,

Three things. 1. The U.S. is becoming more Democratic demographically, and people open to Enlightenment tendencies are born into red states too. 2. Gore beat Bush by 1 million votes, Hillary beat Trump by 2.9 million, and many people still do not know this. 3. Most people in the U.S. revere the concept of fairness, while social media enables a politicized minority who do not reflect this.

Re-election of an unfit boor, this time by an even smaller minority, will not easily be forgotten by the majority. The Electoral College will emerge as a long-term campaign issue to try to win enough seats in Congress and the statehouses to pass an amendment to the Constitution. (There are other possible amendments which also could be added as campaign issues, to win seats to pass them: candidates must release their tax returns, for example.)

This would be a very long political game. Of course liberals and progressives are evidently much worse than conservatives at long-game strategies. And of course there are many other short-term campaign issues which will emerge (or be manufactured) to become salient in any particular election.

But conservatives are facing long-term political headwinds that will serve to continually remind the majority of the flaw in a Trump re-election. Take for one example a long game that conservatives like to think they have won: SCOTUS is now more likely to come down with decisions on social policy that the majority does not like.

Should the Democrats sweep the White House & Congress today, then they’re only guaranteed of two years of unobstructed power. So they should take a page from Obama (ACA, DACA) and pass things that are difficult to reverse, so can serve as future campaign issues. Short-term moves in the long-term game.

@ 8

Interesting question, and hard to answer. I watched an interview with Branko Marcetic, author of ‘Yesterday’s Man’ who made some interesting, points, chief of which is that Biden isn’t as bad as you think. He was actually against (apparently) the invasion of Libya and the, so to speak, slow motion invasion of Syria.

The problem is that the Democratic Party are in hock to Wall Street, to corporations, to Silicon Valley, and that Biden will be surrounded by absolutely the worst people on God’s Green Earth, almost all of whom have a vested interest in pushing him to the right.

Biden seems to understand the need for a genuine global New Deal, and I presume in the first few years, he will make moves in that direction. But he is going to face ferocious kickback not just from the Republicans but from inside his own party.

Watch this video:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=613904715985054

specifically from 16 minutes onwards.

Tl;dr the Democrats had an excellent, highly progressive climate policy until about 2 weeks ago until eventually the DNC simply removed it from the website (I don’t know if it’s still there) apparently under corporate pressure.

Then there was the ‘I’m against fracking and by against, I mean in favour of’ imbroglio.

Don’t get me wrong, Biden is wholly and completely superior to Trump on the environment, at least on paper, but how much he will actually be able to get done is a moot point. As with his foreign policy, his key achievements in the first few months will be symbolic (re-joining the relevant international agencies and treaties) although maybe that would still be an achievement.

I’m sorry but the Bavarian Radio is just playing God Bless America (the same recording with the Tanglewood Festival Chorus) for the second time. Are you listening, God? ;-)

Craig:

“In the new year….things will continue pretty much as before. Biden will probably be slightly better than Trump on the domestic economy, probably (if anything) slightly worse on foreign policy in terms of actions (although not in terms of treaties and diplomacy more generally). ”

I’m amazed at just how little some people have learned in four years.

déjà vu

(encore)

J-D,

I am not a native speaker of English, so I am sorry if I got that wrong, but I had assumed that “the best you can hope for is…” is a way of saying that any more optimistic hope than that is extremely unrealistic.

Lee A. Arnold,

I don’t agree with all that – e.g., I am always pessimistic about the idea that young voters will grow up while maintaining their left-wing policies, when past generations grew up shifting to the right – but the key point I made is not contradicted by what you wrote. It is that the Republicans, including their rank and file, are very openly saying that the Gerrymanders-by-design that are the senate and the electoral college are desirable and good and Just as Things Should Be, because otherwise there would be Tyranny Of The Mob. None of them will look at a third or fourth failure of the most popular candidate being elected and conclude that something is wrong.

And given the current institutional arrangements favour them, they are in a good position to defend those arrangements. I agree completely that this would have to be “very long political game” and that Democrats are at best “only guaranteed of two years of unobstructed power”; in fact, that was my point, although I did not explicitly mention the mid-terms. In the long run we’re all dead or at least busy with other problems such as starving and fleeing from flooded coastal cities, and I just have no hope whatsoever that they will make good use of the two years they have.

They are already making noises that the imperative is to return to bipartisan compromise and to be kinder to each other, which demonstrates that they still have not understood the nature of the other side.

‘I’m amazed at just how little some people have learned in four years.’

Me too. Me too.

… I just have no hope whatsoever that they will make good use of the two years they have. …

The fact that you have no hope whatsoever is insufficient evidence to justify the conclusion that there is no hope whatsoever.

”it’s not ”good” enough for lure US back to ”the homeland”

and there is this movie called ”the Wolves of Wall Street” where ”Trump” says:
”Let me tell you something – there is no nobility in poverty – I have been a rich man and I have been a poor man and I choose rich every f… time – even if it’s the utmost ugly fake rich.

And for members of ”the Cult of Less” -(like US) – that’s just… too…?-
MUCH!

<a href="" Lee A. Arnold@9:

1. The U.S. is becoming more Democratic demographically, and people open to Enlightenment tendencies are born into red states too

Define “more Demographically democratic”, because that sounds dangerously like the US is getting larger percentages of ethnic minorities that skew significantly more culturally conservative than the US as a whole, but have historically have skewed Democratic in elections. Should the GOP jettison the racism but keep the theocracy and corporatism, that demographic shift immediately backfire… and even if they don’t, the more Democrats rely on catering to those demographics, the more they’re incetivized to pay attention to predominant cultural conservative tendencies therein.

The whole idea of demographic inevitably favoring the left seems to rely on some very confused and inconsistent essentialist identitarian thinking – as well as naive conceptions of the core values that the Democratic Party will never compromise on.

and why can’t we just say:
In conclusion – my fellow Americans just like a Racist Science Denier faaaar toooo much.

And they like him sooo much – that we have decided to stay away from them for a while – UNTIL they like Racist Science Deniers –
AGAIN –
as little – as in Obamas Times.

AND –
soo we had a long talk – all 16 of US and we canceled our planned ”Celebration Trip” to Miami in January -(even as we know – that Trump will be gone) –
As we came to the conclusion – that – if it would have been for Florida – The Racist Science Denier wouldn’t be gone –
Right?
And as we had such a Great Time in Little Havana last January – but saw this morning on CNN -right in front of the restaurant where we used to hang out – these unbelievable Trump Celebration –

We thought: We can’t go back there?
As each time we would have to ask: ”Did you guys REALLY vote for a Racist Dude who – did nothing else then constantly insult y’all”?
And each time we would meet one of our Cuban Sisters – we would have to ask her:
”How can a Cuban Woman vote for Trump”? –
Or better said:
”How can a American woman in general vote for Trump”?
And when she – probably – would have answered: ”If it would have been up to US – (Cuban) women – Trump wouldn’t have been President in the first place –
AND then we – probably – would have to have a word with their (macho) boyfriends –
who LOVE Trump –
(because they might yell: He has ”YUUUGE Cojones”)- And as WE never don’t think so – we probably would get into a fight with some of them –
(like last year) – about something as STUPID as US politics” – while we actually just hate the hate Trump distributed.

And so we will stay in Europe – and hope – that under Biden – Florida – will become a lot less hateful and racist in the coming years – and if we are going back to the homeland – we will go just back to CA – where ”Trumpism” never had a chance.

Orange Watch #33: “The whole idea of demographic inevitably favoring the left”

I don’t equate the Democratic Party with the left. And Trump 2020 has expanded the support among non-college young male POC which began in 2016.

There’s a lot to unpack here, some of it already treated in this remarkable, rather eye-opening interview published three months ago:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/david-shor-cancel-culture-2020-election-theory-polls.html

I cannot type a lot right now, but if you can spare the time, I am very interested in your reaction to it.

I should have written that more clearly: Trump 2020 has expanded HIS support among non-college young male POC which began in 2016.

J-D,

Think back to Obama’s terms and you will see that it isn’t a lack of political experience that restricts one’s ability to formulate a strategy for Biden. With the caveat of me not being a US-American, to my understanding the presidency is very powerful, but mostly in terms of foreign policy and war. There are a few other things around the edges where the federal level is responsible, e.g. National Parks and some regulations that can be set by executive order or suchlike, but the Senate can (and will) block any major legislation one could use as an argument for voting Dem in 2022 or 2024 and all nominations of federal judges, as they did during Obama’s later years. They may also cause trouble with budgets, as they did when they threatened to default on the US debt.

The reality is that ever since the ascendancy of Gingrich during Bill Clinton’s administration, the Republicans have seen any Democratic governance as illegitimate in principle. I hope one day the Democrats will realise that they cannot collaborate in good faith or seek compromise with people who believe that they and their supporters are not Real Americans and ideally should not be allowed to have any say in what happens.

Hidari,

That is one of the points I tried to make earlier – I doubt that a Biden administration would have the guts to do what it takes even if it got the trifecta. But that was about electoral reform and stacking the supreme court, because, in all fairness, and as important as it is to do something, the last moment where it would still have been possible to do enough on the environment was probably the 1980s. We are now starting to see ecosystem collapse around us. I doubt that a new dark age with displacement and starvation of billions and widespread societal disruption could be staved off even if all governments on the planet were, right now, to commit to carbon neutrality by, let’s be realistic about how long it takes to achieve that, 2050.

I can believe that denialism will be gone by 2040/50, as you suggest, because by then people will be surrounded by vegetation that looks completely different from how it was in 2010-20, significantly changed weather patterns, and increasingly flooded coastal cities, and they will be unable to doubt what is going on. (I am told back in Germany city landscapers are already planting Mediterranean saplings because they know temperate ones won’t be able to survive by the time they’d be grown trees, as beech and spruce forests are beginning to die off en masse.) But well, by 2040/50 even more heating will be baked in, and that is not even mentioning land clearing, soil erosion, groundwater depletion, and other issues that are being ignored.

I sometimes wonder what those who deny not the problem per se but its severity, those who say “when it gets bad They (?) will come up with a solution”, think will happen in practical terms when it Gets Bad. I can only picture somebody sitting in a refugee camp after they left a Miami that is by then under 1-2 m of ocean saying to themselves, “okay, now that it has affected me directly, let’s stop using fossil fuels, then the water will go away again and I can move back home”.

J-D,

Think back to Obama’s terms and you will see that it isn’t a lack of political experience that restricts one’s ability to formulate a strategy for Biden. … the Senate can (and will) block any major legislation …

Either I’ve understood you properly or I haven’t. If I have understood you properly, you are predicting that a Republican-controlled Senate will block any significant legislative proposals of the Biden Administration and that the Biden Administration will be unable to do anything about it. If that’s how things turn out, I won’t be entirely surprised, because I can envisage that possibility, but you seem sure it’s a certainty, and your confidence in that conclusion seems to me to exceed what’s justified.

I hope one day the Democrats will realise that they cannot collaborate in good faith or seek compromise with people who believe that they and their supporters are not Real Americans and ideally should not be allowed to have any say in what happens.

The fact that you hope for this indicates that you think it would make a difference if it happened, which in turn suggests that you think there is something a Democratic Administration could do about Republican obstruction if only they were willing. Well, which is it? ‘There’s nothing they could do even if they wanted to’ and ‘they aren’t willing to do anything even if they could’ are not synonymous. In any case, whichever of these more accurately represents your position, your level of confidence in it seems to exceed what is justified–except that, in order for you to hope for the Democrats to change their approach, surely you must believe that it is at least possible?

Again, ‘the chances are not good’ and ‘there is no chance at all’ are not synonymous, and you make it difficult to be clear about which of them (if either) is your position.