A tough road ahead

by John Q on November 5, 2008

Over the fold is my piece from today’s Australian Financial Review on the task facing Obama. The original version started “Following his convincing election victory, Barack Obama can look forward to taking office under the most challenging conditions facing any incoming president since Franklin Roosevelt’s inauguration in 1933,”, but another columnist came in with an almost identical lead, so I changed mine. But the great thing about a blog is that you can choose which version you like best (or dislike least). The original opening paras are at the end of the post.

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Gelman brings the R

by Kieran Healy on November 5, 2008

Andrew Gelman with a first pass at analyzing the election data.

04/08 swing by state

This figure illustrates point 5 below — the election was more of a partisan swing than a redrawing of the electoral map. Andrew’s impressions:

1. The election was pretty close. Obama won by about 5% of the vote, consistent with the latest polls and consistent with his forecast vote based on forecasts based on the economy. … 3. The gap between young and old has increased–a lot: But there was no massive turnout among young voters. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters this time were under 30, as compared to 17% of voters in 2004. (By comparison, 22% of voting-age Americans are under 30.)

4. By ethnicity: Barack Obama won 96% of African Americans, 68% of Latinos, 64% of Asians, and 44% of whites. In 2004, Kerry won 89% of African Americans, 55% of Latinos, 56% of Asians, and 41% of whites. So Obama gained the most among ethnic minorities.

5. The red/blue map was not redrawn; it was more of a national partisan swing.

Thought for the day

by Henry Farrell on November 5, 2008

Whatever disappointments and unhappiness lie in the future, my two sons are going to grow up in an America where it is a _done deal_ that an African-American with a foreign-sounding name can run for President and win. That’s pretty nice to wake up to.

Time of hope

by John Q on November 5, 2008

With the networks calling Ohio for Obama, the only question remaining for today is the size of the win. I’m rushing to write a column (for the Australian Financial Review) but I thought I’d open up a post for anyone who wanted to comment.