Necrotrends: The GOP Was The Party of Civil Rights

by John Holbo on July 17, 2008

Bruce Bartlett has a piece in the WSJ. His thesis statement: “Historically speaking, the Republican Party has a far better record on race than the Democrats.” Here’s the antidote. You can guess how this sort of thing is going to go:

In 1900 (under President McKinley) and again in 1922 (under Harding), Republicans tried to enact an antilynching law. Coolidge asked for legislation again in his 1923 State of the Union message. Unfortunately, Southern Democrats in the Senate routinely filibustered every Republican effort to aid African-Americans.

Thus: “[McCain] should explain that African-Americans will be much better off in the long run if they are receptive to candidates of both parties instead of being virtual captives of only one, which is then free to take them for granted.”

But surely if African-Americans feel the need to be specifically receptive to long-dead candidates of not just one but both parties, then a oijia board, not a ballot box, is the appropriate medium.

It would be kind of fun to flip this Bartlett logic over and sort of cross it with Mark Penn microtrends. You could have necrotrends: McCain needs to reach out to recently deceased left-handed soccer moms. Or: Obama needs to be sensitive to the concerns of long-dead jai alai dads. So forth. So long as political considerations are divorced from concerns about biological vivification, the possibilities are endless. If some politician is caught with a ballot box stuffed with the names of the deceased, he could defend himself on the grounds that only letting the living vote is sheer ‘animism’.

Bartlett does not even claim, in the op-ed, that there are living Republicans who deserve the support of African-Americans, due to their support for civil rights. The most recent instance he cites is Richard Nixon, who supported affirmative action as a way of busting racist unions. He is, apparently, seriously arguing that African-Americans should consider voting for dead people.

In short: these attempts to argue that McCain can’t be running for Bush’s third term because he’s running for McKinley’s second are getting a bit far-fetched.

This line is nice (paging Rick Perlstein): “Richard Nixon is said to have developed a “Southern strategy” of using racial code words like “law and order” to gain votes in the South.” Yes, that certainly is said.

UPDATE: I almost forgot. I sort of wrote this post two weeks ago, reviewing a Michael Swanwick story about democracy among the undead. “Salem Toussaint stood in the doorway, eyes rolled up in his head so far that only the whites showed. He held up a hand and in a hollow voice said, ‘One of my constituents is in trouble.'”

{ 75 comments }

1

JP Stormcrow 07.17.08 at 6:40 am

It really is rich to see a guy like Bartlett invoking Nixon and affirmative action. Here he is in a column at Townhall a few years back:

In this short space, there is not room to the list all of Nixon’s misguided domestic and economic policies. Following are some of the worst. — Affirmative Action.

2

John Holbo 07.17.08 at 6:58 am

that’s great, stormcrow. I was going to add a note to that effect. But I didn’t have the perfect quote to go with it.

3

abb1 07.17.08 at 7:26 am

We have to vote for the dead or else they will rise and eat your brains. Or what’s left of our brains anyway.

4

bad Jim 07.17.08 at 7:59 am

“[McCain] should explain that African-Americans will be much better off in the long run if they are receptive to candidates of both parties instead of being virtual captives of only one, which is then free to take them for granted.”

This is actually pretty reasonable, so long as you don’t bother to think about it.

5

Ben Alpers 07.17.08 at 8:23 am

There’s probably no way to determine it for sure, but whenever I encounter stuff like the Bartlett piece I wonder about the ratio of bad faith to honest, ideology-driven cluelessness.

I was at a conference a little over a decade ago at which Eugene Genovese–who had already transformed himself into an idiosyncratic conservative–expressed apparently genuine confusion about why African Americans, who often had conservative views on such issues abortion and gay rights, didn’t vote Republican in greater numbers. Of course Genovese, of all people, should have been able to answer his own question.

6

JP Stormcrow 07.17.08 at 9:09 am

The Townhall column was called “Undoing the Nixon Legacy”. BTW the other “worst” areas were Taxes, Budget, Regulation and Inflation.

I wonder about the ratio of bad faith to honest, ideology-driven cluelessness.

In this case I would say that it is fairly clear that this is in bad faith. This is something he knows is BS, but now at least it is “out there”. (It does pick up on themes in a book he wrote on historical Democratic racism, but he knows this argument applied to the parties in 2008 is pure FUD.)

7

JP Stormcrow 07.17.08 at 9:35 am

Expanding on my “bad faith” comment. I think that at times someone like Bartlett can whip himself up into such a rhetorical frenzy that he “believes” that Nixon was the most left-wing president ever on domestic issues (as he says in the article I quoted)or that in some hypothetical world it would be “better” for blacks to support both parties, but I do not think for a second that he thinks that he has made an actual good faith argument in the piece in the WSJ.

8

almostinfamous 07.17.08 at 10:42 am

i think the point being made here is that since john mccain is closer in age to the bucket-kicking point(and thus to all the hallowed examples quoted above) than obama, he will be less racist.

9

bdbd 07.17.08 at 12:12 pm

Didn’t the descendants of all the Democrats Bartlett wants to point at eventually switch to the GOP? (a variant on the “some have said Nixon had a Southern stategy” weasel words)

10

Steve LaBonne 07.17.08 at 12:39 pm

This is actually pretty reasonable, so long as you don’t bother to think about it.

It would be reasonable even if you thought about it- in a parallel universe in which the Republicans hadn’t basically made their living the past few decades out of being the racist party.

Not to mention, the party of liars.

11

Danielle Day 07.17.08 at 1:19 pm

Mr. Swanwick’s (without the “s”) story “The Dead” appeared in “Tales of Old Earth”, c. 2000

12

Fellow Traveller 07.17.08 at 1:53 pm

This appeal to the dead goes back a long way with conservative thinkers:

“SOCIETY is indeed a contract. Subordinate contracts for objects of mere occasional interest may be dissolved at pleasure — but the state ought not to be considered as nothing better than a partnership agreement in a trade of pepper and coffee, calico, or tobacco, or some other such low concern, to be taken up for a little temporary interest, and to be dissolved by the fancy of the parties.

As the ends of such a partnership cannot be obtained in many generations, it becomes a partnership not only between those who are living, but between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are to be born.”

Edmund Burke Reflections on the Revolution in France 1790

Note the dismissal of the mere material interest of the living in favour of the dead and unborn (in other words, the non-existent).

13

Black Political Analysis 07.17.08 at 2:11 pm

Let’s not forget the obvious. For black voters to go GOP requires voting on social issues. While blacks are often socially conservative, rarely does it drive their voting. Issues of economics, education and civil rights largely drive their voting. So, for the GOP to get black votes in significant numbers, requires the GOP to change policy. If that happened, the GOP risks alienating its’ core support group of southern, white males. Bartlett seems to have forgotten one of the important reasons for the GOP’s growth in the South from the 1960s – 1980s.

14

Cheryl Rofer 07.17.08 at 2:40 pm

The Republican Party originated as the anti-slavery party.

How we got to here from there is a very long story. Here is one small piece.

The Dixiecrats recalled that treachery on the part of the Republicans until Lyndon Johnson and the Democratic Congress passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Then, as the radical conservatives took over the Republican Party, the Dixiecrats recognized that that was where they belonged, and that is where people of that mindset now locate themselves.

It’s all in which particular piece of treachery one wants to react to and how long one’s memory is. Or where one’s interest lies now.

15

CJColucci 07.17.08 at 2:42 pm

In my experience — and I have a lot more than my last name would suggest — black people already accept the idea that they would be better off if they had two parties to play off against each other for their support, and already believe that they are “taken for granted” by Democrats. The problem for them is that the Democrats can take them for granted precisely because there is no place else for them to go. They know the difference between a party that takes them for granted and, therefore, doesn’t do much for them, and a party that actively campaigns (if, necessarily now, in more subtle ways) against them and their interests. They aren’t happy about it, but they are realistic.

16

roac 07.17.08 at 2:43 pm

The estimable Dr. Boli is ahead of the game here. He has founded the Fringe Party to run dead people for president. Harding is the pre-convention favorite.

My favorite line: “Harding’s Dead, But Is He Dead Enough?” — George F. Will.

17

Martin James 07.17.08 at 2:50 pm

The article is in the WSJ not Jet.

The audience is not black voters its Southern Republicans and the point is that the game is up on the Southern strategy.

You’ve won on this one, why be such sore losers?

18

someguy 07.17.08 at 3:00 pm

1. Historically the Republican Party is not inherently racist.

1A Not many blacks will vote Republican in the coming presidential election.

2 John McCain should point this, 1, out in the hopes of convincing black voters to consider Republican candidates in the future.

3. Because since there isn’t anything inherently racist about being a Republican, black voters should consider the positions of both Democratic and Republican candidates and vote accordingly.

You wouldn’t think anyone would object to such a straightforward, basic, and sensible bit of commentary.

You would be wrong.

The fear and frothing generated by such straightforward, basic, and sensible bit of commentary, is indicative of how much Democrats rely on black voters voting Democratic based solely on the notion that the Republican Party is and must be inherently racist.

Sooner or later as the black middle and upper middle class continues to grow and as America becomes less and less racists Democrats are going to face a fight they could very easily lose.

19

someguy 07.17.08 at 3:18 pm

D said it even better.

“The notion that political parties retain some kind of essential, stable (and nationally uniform) character over time — and that these hypothetical lineages should have any determining effect on contemporary voter preference — is dishonest and idiotic.”

Exactly. So if you are black please consider becoming a Republican. Lyndon Johnson is dead. You didn’t get where you are via affirmative action. You got where you are because of your talent and hard work. You work hard for your money and deserve to keep it.

It’s not so much that I am trolling as it is that the fish are very hungry and single minded.

20

fardels bear 07.17.08 at 3:26 pm

someguy, you may be right that “Historically the Republican Party is not inherently racist.” What is being pointed out here is that “Historically the Republican Party is contingently racist.

The first claim does nothing to deny the second.

21

John Holbo 07.17.08 at 3:32 pm

“So if you are black please consider becoming a Republican. Lyndon Johnson is dead.”

I don’t really get that one.

“black voters should consider the positions of both Democratic and Republican candidates and vote accordingly.”

Look, it may be that black voters are all voting Democratic in mindless droves without looking, or it may be that they are considering the positions of both Democratic and Republican candidates very carefully and shrewdly and voting accordingly. But, pretty obviously, the results are going to be the same either way. So it’s sort of a wash. Bartlett admits this, implicitly. If blacks look at the candidates they may conclude that they should have voted for the Republicans in 1900, but they are hardly going to find them attractive in 2008. But if you check your watch, it actually is 2008.

I’m not sure what you think the fish are in this situation.

22

abb1 07.17.08 at 3:32 pm

Historically the Republican Party is not inherently racist. But it is racist now.

“I used to be a handsome and energetic lad, many years ago.” Does this sound like a good pick-up line?

23

someguy 07.17.08 at 4:23 pm

John Holbo,

‘Look, it may be that black voters are all voting Democratic in mindless droves without looking, or it may be that they are considering the positions of both Democratic and Republican candidates very carefully and shrewdly and voting accordingly”

No. Very understandablely the mindless droves are going to vote Democratic. For very good reasons. I also want to point out that voting in a mindless drove isn’t all that stupid.

Based solely on self interest more blacks should vote Republican.

And I understand that you cannot understand this but the same is true if the consideration is the promotion of the common good.

Sure many more Republican are racist. But there really shouldn’t be such a sharp divide between white and black vote based on platforms.

But people are creatures of habit. And for very good reasons, Lyndon Johnson and the Civil Rights act, the habit of black voters is too vote Democratic.

If you want to pretend that it doesn’t have anything to do with habit and history and it is all about present day calculations about the current candidates go ahead.

One day that habit is going to be examined and could very easily change.

24

Righteous Bubba 07.17.08 at 4:26 pm

Based solely on self interest more blacks should vote Republican.

That’s because the Bush presidency has been great for EVERYONE!

25

Bruce Baugh 07.17.08 at 4:31 pm

Yes, it obviously makes sense for any group looking for fuller participation in the mainstream of American society to support the party that specializes in concentrating all gains at the top, shoving all costs and risks down, and squandering the nation’s resources on war and corruption. Oh, and makes a secondary specialization of giving high office to bigots as well as the incompetent. Yes, sir, that spells “opportunity!” for all historically disadvantaged groups. That this party’s leaders routinely deny and attempt to suppress evidence of present, ongoing disadvantage only makes it that much more appealing.

The Democratic Party would have to be significantly worse than it already is to be an unappealing alternative.

26

Lee A. Arnold 07.17.08 at 4:34 pm

Maybe blacks aren’t stupidly misled by “self-interest.” It was always a bit of a mug’s game, masquerading as a facet of science.

27

rea 07.17.08 at 4:34 pm

McCain can’t be running for Bush’s third term because he’s running for McKinley’s second

McKinley won a second term himself, although he was assasinated before he completed it.

28

abb1 07.17.08 at 4:51 pm

If one has to think about voting patterns in racial terms – which I think is a mistake, urban/suburban/rural slicing is much more meaningful – there is only one rational conclusion: the blacks as a group are much-much smarter than any other racial/ethnic group. By my physics-based scientific estimate 3 – 3.5 standard deviations smarter than the white folks.

29

someguy 07.17.08 at 4:55 pm

Again.

The core principals and policies of the Republican party are quite appealing and the same can be said for the Democratic party. We should not be suprised that the country is split 50/50.

Given habit and history we should not be suprised that Democrats get 90% of the black vote.

Re-examination of that habit could very easily result in the black vote more closely mirroring that 50/50 split.

30

Bruce Baugh 07.17.08 at 4:59 pm

What core principles and policies would these be? Presumably you mean neither the contents of the party platform nor the executive and legislative initiatives of Republican officials, since all those are hostile to the interests of every minority group, and to all but the wealthiest people of any race.

31

djw 07.17.08 at 5:03 pm

Based solely on self interest more blacks should vote Republican.

Depending on how we define “self interest” this may be true. But since we don’t have data on how the vanishingly small number of blacks in the top 1% or os of income and wealth distribution generally vote, we can’t say for sure.

32

Hogan 07.17.08 at 5:10 pm

black voters should consider the positions of both Democratic and Republican candidates and vote accordingly.

And there’s nothing at all insulting or patronizing about the implication that black voters don’t do that now. No no no.

33

someguy 07.17.08 at 5:23 pm

Hogan,

No there isn’t anything patronizing about suggesting that like everyone else black voters are in part creatures of habit and history.

I am sure there are plenty of White Republican voters who currently pull the lever for Reagan and against Carter.

And as I originally stated, I don’t think that is a stupid way to vote.

34

ajay 07.17.08 at 5:24 pm

someguy, you’ve yet to adduce any evidence that black voters are, at present, supporting the Democratic party out of habit, rather than as the result of a rational assessment of both parties’ likely policies once in office.
And the fact that the nation at large is split roughly 50-50 does not mean that every demographic within it should be split 50-50, and that any deviation from this split must be the result of “habit and history”.

35

Cryptic Ned 07.17.08 at 5:34 pm

Based solely on self interest more blacks should vote Republican.

Based on self-interest only about the richest 0.1% of the population should vote Republican, that being the subset of people who have gotten richer rather than poorer under the Bush administration. That subset of the population is probably less black than the population as a whole, though I can’t be sure about that. So maybe 0.08% of the black population should vote Republican, which is actually less than the proportion that does right now.

36

fardels bear 07.17.08 at 5:34 pm

someguy, perhaps you could lay out what it is that Republicans offer to black voters? Bruce Bartlett pointed to the strong Republican stand against lynching in the 1920s. Anything since then?

37

Bruce Baugh 07.17.08 at 5:37 pm

In my early BBSing days, I watched a thread like this that started off with earnest efforts to explain why African-Americans should support Repubicans that developed into, among other things, the claim that since black people are genetically inferior at math and management, it’s in their interests to support Republicans who’ll keep them from being lured into undue influence over others or from having money and other resources they’d just use irresponsibly. It was glorious. Never been quite equaled. I live in hope that one day the folks trying so hard not to look like racist toads will be so hilariously illuminating again, though.

38

someguy 07.17.08 at 6:15 pm

fardels bear,

Today, in general lower taxes.

ajay,

I don’t have a mathematically proof. I guess, either you understand that people are in part creatures of habit and history or you don’t.

Here is brief recap of some of the history.

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/the_contested_black_vote.php

In 1950s it was 50/50 by 1968 it was 95/5.

39

someguy 07.17.08 at 6:30 pm

cryptic ned,

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc/h01ar.html

Kind of out of date considering the recession. but still when all is said and done it looks like all income groups will end up richer.

Sounds like according to your logic and definition of self interest almost everyone shoud vote Republican instead of just .1%.

40

tom 07.17.08 at 6:40 pm

if we say that black voters are voting democrat based on their economic principles, and not their socially conservative values, then is it even appropriate to be classifying them as a distinct demographic? wouldn’t it be more accurate to divide this along class and wealth lines than racial lines? that way we could say x% of x income bracket votes democrat, etc. what, other than darker skin, puts them into the same voting block?

41

Righteous Bubba 07.17.08 at 6:45 pm

what, other than darker skin

What, other than this elephant in this room, is in this room?

42

Ernst 07.17.08 at 7:05 pm

Someguy,

And for those lower taxes primarily aimed at the top percentage earners the trade-off is a worse economy at the lower then average incomes. And as with any group the majority of the black demographic doesn’t belong to the top percentage of earners.

Seeing that overall the Democrats realize better economic results for the largest groups, namely the below average and average income earners, lower taxes is hardly a good reason to vote for the republicans as the resulting cash advantage is still less then realized by the growth in income under the Democrats.

Your next argument about how the 1950 and 1968 numbers show that the black vote is purely directed by habit and history is pure unadulterated brainless piffle.

Those numbers simply show an institutional change; namely that both the democratic party and the republican party changed their policies and the black demographics’ distribution of the vote changed reflected that. In order to have a case you would have to show that those policies aren’t still relevant. But as of yet you’ve shown yourself incapable of doing that.

It is very simply; The Black vote goes to the democratic party because the democrats have been, and continue to be, far better advocates for that demographic then the republican party since the 1960’s.

Continued references to earlier times don’t matter as the change in policies since that are still there. Your assertion that “the core principals and policies of the Republican party are quite appealing” is simply wrong for the vast majority of the black demographic.

This isn’t rocket science, no mere habit is so powerful to divide a group at a 85/15 distribution. Later generations would show a significant weakening over time as new generations, unburdened by the actual event, would be less and less influenced by the preferences of their parents, this is clearly not the case.

43

Ernst 07.17.08 at 7:15 pm

someguy,

If you looked at the second table, that showed the numbers corrected for inflation you’d noticed that the average actual income growth is negative in the Lowest, Second and Third fifths. And the growth of the richest fourth and fifth fifths less then under the democratic president.

So yes, as shown by your own table, Democrats are actually better for income growth all around.

44

Ernst 07.17.08 at 7:27 pm

Tom.

Most people are not saying that Black purely vote for economic reasons. It was simply the terrain someguy wanted the blacks to vote republican on. as Black Political Analysis said at 2:11 pm:

While blacks are often socially conservative, rarely does it drive their voting. Issues of economics, education and civil rights largely drive their voting.

They are a distinct demographic because they aren’t purely voting democratic for economic reasons but for economic reasons and several other reasons which combined make them a distinct demographic.

The reason why we purely talk about economic reasons is because someguy erroneously makes the claim that on that subject the republicans should receive a larger part of the vote from black voters but don’t because of habit, while we make the counter case that yes, the democratic party is economically better and that thus his claim is invalid, and that thus mere “habit” isn’t the reason why blacks vote democratic in the numbers that they do.

45

CJColucci 07.17.08 at 7:27 pm

someguy:
You might want to get out among actual black people and find out what they think and why they think it, and how it causes them to vote as they do. Then you might want to look at what the Republicans offer as an inducement to black voters. For the last couple of decades, the Republican pitch to black voters has been either of the following: (1) we know the economic truth, which will benefit you in the long run, even if you n*****s are too stupid to realize it, or (2) QUEERS! Of course, black voters also see the Republican pitch to non-wealthy white voters, which has been a combination of: (1) we know the economic truth, which will benefit you in the long run, even if you assholes are too stupid to realize it; (2) COMMIES! (through 1989), (3) TERRORISTS! (since 9/11), (4) QUEERS!, and, let’s not forget, especially after 1964, (5) N*****S! Black voters are not stupid. They would be much happier if two parties seriously contended for their votes, and they are fully aware of their dimished leverage from having only one party that seems to want them.

46

fardels bear 07.17.08 at 7:53 pm

someguy, forgive black folks for forgetting that “lowering taxes” is an unassailable Good Thing for everyone. What is the budget deficit under GWB? How much does the Iraq War cost? What is the percentage of the war actually funded by the Chinese? And the Republicans get us all that for an extra $600 in our pockets!

Yes, “lower taxes” certiainly would make up for Trent Lott, Strom Thurmond, and Jesse Helms, how foolish of black folks not to realize this.

47

Rich B. 07.17.08 at 7:54 pm

Question: Assuming that blacks should vote for Republicans due to McKinley’s anti-lynching stance, shouldn’t Grover Cleveland’s union-busting and anti-tax positions send about an equivalent number of Republicans over to the Democratic column?

48

Hogan 07.17.08 at 7:57 pm

In 1950s it was 50/50 by 1968 it was 95/5.

Is that supposed to prove that the black vote now is largely based on habit? How does that work exactly? Why didn’t the habit of the ’50s carry over into the ’60s and ’70s? I mean, I know what I think the reason is: the parties changed places on who was supporting black interests better. What’s your explanation?

As for your census chart, I’m not sure what you think you’re showing. Average income at every level has gone up every year, regardless of who was in office. It seems to me that they made more gains during the Clinton presidency than they have under W. So where’s the argument for voting Republican there?

49

someguy 07.17.08 at 8:33 pm

fardels bear,

You asked me for a reason, I gave you one.

There are also plenty of reasons not to vote Republican or Democrat.

Thurmond and Helms are dead. Right?

And does it make sense to vote Democrat in your Congressional or Senate because of a Thurmond or a Helms?

Certainly more racists are Republicans and that hurts Republicans with black voters and it maskes sense that it does. As does an in general doctrinaire opposition to affrimative action.

Hogan,

50

someguy 07.17.08 at 8:44 pm

Hogan,

Civil Rights was huge. Goldwater and conervatives were wrong.

The differences today are much smaller and problematic and the landscape is much different. Affirmative action is sometimes good and sometimes not so good.

And like I said people are in part creatures of habit and history either you get that or you don’t.

History and association plays a part in how people vote today.

The census data was for cryptic ned and the conclusion was based on cryptic ned’s reasoning.

I agree with you. Income pretty much always goes up for all income groups in any 2 year adminstration.

51

Bruce Baugh 07.17.08 at 8:52 pm

You just know that Someguy is gonna go off thinking he did his best to enlighten us, including any hypothetical black readers, and all us doctrinaire leftists just didn’t listen to the truth.

52

Righteous Bubba 07.17.08 at 9:03 pm

Civil Rights was huge.

Is huge.

53

someguy 07.17.08 at 9:11 pm

Righteous Bubba,

Yes but very few people now oppose Civil Rights.

54

Righteous Bubba 07.17.08 at 9:19 pm

Yes but very few people now oppose Civil Rights.

Some of them appear to be in the current justice department, so there’s that.

55

JP Stormcrow 07.17.08 at 9:26 pm

Some of them appear to be in the current justice department, so there’s that.

Well yeaaahhhh, but come on, how much power do some twerps in the justice department have? especially when they are part of an administration that has been so proactive in reasserting the historic Republican concern for the rights of minorities.

Sheesh, you guys are so far left that I bet most of you are supporting Obama, admit it.

56

someguy 07.17.08 at 9:42 pm

Ernst,

My bad. Thanks.

Tying economic growth to Democratic or Republican policies is just wishfull thinking. It is impossible to define the policies let alone make a connection.

“Your next argument about how the 1950 and 1968 numbers show that the black vote is purely directed by habit and history is pure unadulterated brainless piffle.”

Only I didn’t make any such argument. I said in part by habit and history. And I never argued that the 1950 and 1968 numbers showed that. I was pointing out that a huge change took place during that period. It makes sense that the ramifications of that change would continue on for a good deal of time.

What is pure piffle is the notion that habit and history play no part in today’s proceddings.

Perhaps you would like to argue that the last 8 years shouldn’t and more importantly won’t have any impact on McCain and Republican chances this fall? That each Republican should be and more importantly will be judged based on a case by case basis based on current policy proposals.

“Your assertion that “the core principals and policies of the Republican party are quite appealing” is simply wrong for the vast majority of the black demographic.”

If by vast majority you mean 3/5s. I might agree. But for 2/5s, middle and upper middle class blacks, I would disagree.

“Later generations would show a significant weakening over time as new generations, unburdened by the actual event, would be less and less influenced by the preferences of their parents, this is clearly not the case.”

Exactly. It was 95/5 and now it is some where between 85/15 and 90/10.

57

Bruce Baugh 07.17.08 at 9:44 pm

So the Republican Party can’t actually matter to most people’s economic well-being but blacks are foolish to support the Democrats because the Republicans would make them better off.

58

someguy 07.17.08 at 9:55 pm

Bruce Baugh,

Both parties are appealing. For a number of reasons other than history and habit I would expect more blacks to vote Democratic.

But for black voters in the upper 2/5 income brackets I would expect Republican policies to be much closer to evenly appealing.

Identifying party policies that impact income growth might be impossible but identifying policies that impact your after tax income is a lot more possible.

59

someguy 07.17.08 at 9:59 pm

I actually should say identifying party policy with income growth might be impossible.

60

Bruce Baugh 07.17.08 at 10:15 pm

Someguy, quite literally, you don’t know what you’re talking about. You are not in a position to have any idea what’s up with a whole lot of people, and until you begin to understand their concerns, you’re just so much more mindless blather. You deserve the mockery you’re getting. You are in the position of someone trying to recruit KKK members to support feminism and affirmative action, except with the bigotry flowing in the other direction. And that fact that you are unlikely ever to get this is itself a perfect demonstration of why African-Americans have left the Republican Party far behind.

61

Bruce Baugh 07.17.08 at 10:20 pm

This is one of the things black voters know. In 1981, campaign planner Lee Atwater had this to say:

Atwater: As to the whole Southern strategy that Harry Dent and others put together in 1968, opposition to the Voting Rights Act would have been a central part of keeping the South. Now [the new Southern Strategy of Ronald Reagan] doesn’t have to do that. All you have to do to keep the South is for Reagan to run in place on the issues he’s campaigned on since 1964… and that’s fiscal conservatism, balancing the budget, cut taxes, you know, the whole cluster…

Questioner: But the fact is, isn’t it, that Reagan does get to the Wallace voter and to the racist side of the Wallace voter by doing away with legal services, by cutting down on food stamps…?

Atwater: You start out in 1954 by saying, ‘Nigger, nigger, nigger.’ By 1968 you can’t say ‘nigger’ – that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states’ rights and all that stuff. You’re getting so abstract now [that] you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I’m not saying that. But I’m saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me – because obviously sitting around saying, ‘We want to cut this,’ is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than ‘Nigger, nigger.’

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snuh 07.18.08 at 3:40 am

according to wikipedia, there have been 90+ african american members of congress since ww2. of these, only 4 have been republicans, and that includes 1 non-voting rep from the virgin islands and 1 rockefeller republican senator from massachusetts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Americans_in_the_United_States_Congress

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John Holbo 07.18.08 at 3:46 am

“Identifying party policies that impact income growth might be impossible but identifying policies that impact your after tax income is a lot more possible.”

So you have no choice but to conclude that the fanatical tax-cut party is the party most likely to improve your economic well-being? Come now, surely you can see the flaw in your own argument, someguy.

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Kenny Easwaran 07.18.08 at 4:02 am

It’s clearly true that every demographic would be better served by being up for grabs, rather than having one party be able to take them for granted. But this doesn’t mean that they should aim to vote 50/50 for the two parties, with deviations only when one party changes their policies in a direction that’s more favorable for the demographic.

What it really suggests is that (in this case) black people should enthusiastically take part in Republican primaries and vote for the candidate who will be more favorable for issues that are relevant to their community, and then vote in the general election for whichever party’s candidate is better for their community (which will still probably be the Democrat). But if enough Republicans with policy positions that are relatively favorable for black communities move up in the party, then the two parties will both start to become acceptable choices in the general election, and the interests of the community will be better served over all.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Republicans have been doing much to encourage this strategy at all.

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abb1 07.18.08 at 7:30 am

Kenny, a group of elected politicians will not affect the party platform much, if at all. It’s the opposite causation here: the RNC defines the parameters and elected Republicans are supposed to go along with the program. If they don’t, they will be kicked out one way or another.

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tom 07.18.08 at 3:30 pm

@#40 (myself) i just realized that my phrase “other than darker skin” is rather stupid. i was, of course, talking about skin color in relation to my own, which is the palest of pale. i try to check myself on those things, sorry

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someguy 07.18.08 at 5:47 pm

John Holbo,

No I don’t see the flaw. Drats.

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Dreadnaugh 07.18.08 at 5:58 pm

Who should white people vote for? As we know there could be no dissent within a racial group.

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CJColucci 07.18.08 at 7:14 pm

I don’t know who white people should vote FOR, but if there were a party that based much of its appeal on hostility to white people and their interests, white people would certainly be well advised to vote AGAINST it — even though they would probably find themselves “taken for granted” by whatever alternative party they ended up supporting.

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Jeff Rubard 07.18.08 at 9:35 pm

John, I gotta tell you, the Republicans were the original party of civil rights and it matters: there’s a historical part to historical materialism (the original formulation of which involved Marx warmly congratulating Lincoln on a job well done), and being a cultural materialist requires recognizing that blacks are receptive to long-dead candidates. As for Democratic necropolitics, I like to think the Revolutionary George Clinton was a good guy (maybe even some blacks agree), but the history of Democrats on race relations really isn’t heroic.

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Uncle Kvetch 07.18.08 at 10:40 pm

Next week, someguy will explain to us how gay men like myself are a natural constituency for the Republican Party. I mean, think about it: the highly publicized and exceedingly tawdry sexual antics of all those closeted, self-loathing prominent Republicans just serve to make the rest of us look that much more wholesome and well-adjusted in comparison.

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Bruce Baugh 07.19.08 at 6:19 am

Uncle Kvetch: Well, look. Do you want a party with prominent people who have a tendency to form long-lasting heterosexual unions and to keep their various commitments, or do you want a party that understands the closeted life, self-loathing, transgressive relationships, and unorthodox bonding of all kinds? Don’t you as a gay man feel drawn to the people who understand alienation best?

(Someone’s going to think I’m serious, I just know it.)

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Dr. Pion 07.19.08 at 2:22 pm

Apropos the comment about “law and order” as a racial code word, these days the code word for “uppity” is “elitist”. And why do Republicans prefer candidates like Bush and McCain, who squandered their elite private boarding school education to become just another barfly, over the Horatio Alger stories they say they prefer?

It is true that Republicans used to be the party of civil rights, just as it used to be that the Democrats were the party that took us to war. What is overlooked is which party integrated the US military, and started the move of racist Southern Democrats to the Republican party.

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Fats Durston 07.20.08 at 1:05 pm

If by vast majority you mean 3/5s.

Come on, this “statistic” shows that Someguy is taking the piss. No one would be so tone-deaf as to choose this fraction when describing black American voter preferences…

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brantl 07.21.08 at 1:41 pm

But Someguy doesn’t get something even that basic. If he thinks that 2/5 of blacks are in the 2/5 highest echelons of income, he doesn’t get out of his mother’s basement enough. Or associate with any blacks. But that went without saying, having seen his posts here.

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