With the Six Nations starting this weekend, it is time for one of those prediction threads again. Here’s my take. There are only three possible winners: France, England and Ireland. Of these, England overperformed in the World Cup, and the Irish were shocking, but expect some regression to the usual level. France have the most skilful team, England are rebuilding, and a great Irish team is on its last legs. England have some key weaknesses: Regan has been dreadful at hooker for Bristol, and, once again, there’s no obvious scrum half. Since France have home advantage over both England and Ireland, and England have the same over Ireland, that should be enough to make the difference. So who to come last? I’m betting on Scotland to get the wooden spoon.
{ 30 comments }
Andy 01.28.08 at 5:50 pm
Its fascinating isn’t it? There seems to be a bit of a movement building for Ireland (Butler in the oberver, Castiagnede in the guardian).
My worries about England is that the dominance of the pack rests too much on key individuals who could get injured (thinking particularly of Sheridan), and there has to be a question mark about the ability of the forward and backs to link together. And will Ashton prove he is capable of developing a game plan and tactical direction?
And of course there is the wildcard of Warren Gatland – what will he be able to do with Wales?
rm 01.28.08 at 6:05 pm
I never will figure out what the Iroquois have to do with wooden spoons or collective plural nouns. It’s all so confusing.
Thom Brooks 01.28.08 at 6:55 pm
My money remains with Ireland.
Andrew Smith 01.28.08 at 7:00 pm
I agree with Thom, it’ll be Ireland.
yucca 01.28.08 at 7:23 pm
i kinda wanna take offence ’cause you failed to mention italy ;-) but then you didnt mention wales either.
rea 01.28.08 at 7:27 pm
Like rm, I’m a bit confused–don’t the Mohawks or the Seneca usually win the 6 Nations?
Chris Bertram 01.28.08 at 7:36 pm
Sorry Yucca, you ought to be pleased that I didn’t mention Italy in may final sentence.
Giles 01.28.08 at 8:37 pm
I wouldnt discount Wales with Gatland harder head now at the helm. Welsh clubs have also been doing ok in the HC.
berbarda 01.28.08 at 8:46 pm
How nice to have a thread on rugby. Though I am in France, there are many unknowns with the new coaching team. I think the experience of the Irish will prevail.
At least the new French coaches are looking for talent and not playing personal favorites and friends(though I think it is a mistake not to choose Chabal and the best French # 15 is still Brusque), and business partners, like that clown Laporte. Even when Laporte chose not the best players for the World Cup, France should never have lost to England.
As Fréderic Michalak said after the match, we tried to apply the coach’s instructions. Of course those completely inadapted to an old slow team like England. And how could Laporte not have started Rougerie, who can be a game breaker?
Sorry, but I could go on and on about casino owner Laporte.
Hugh 01.28.08 at 9:17 pm
A lot of people don’t know that lacross is canada’s national sport. I guess I shouldn’t be so surprised to learn it’s big in europe too.
mijnheer 01.28.08 at 9:19 pm
The Six Nations are looking good.
http://www.sixnationschiefs.com/
Airbox 01.28.08 at 9:56 pm
Or you can compete with your predictions of the outcome of the six nations matches – use the website link!
France for me, followed by a rejuvenated England.
As usual Italy v. Scotland for the wooden spoon, but surely with a less surreal match than in 2007!
Grand Moff Texan 01.28.08 at 10:15 pm
Gah, who’s carrying this in the US?
Or do I have to go drink at an Irish pub every time I want to see a game? Kalitera to thanatos.
.
astrongmaybe 01.28.08 at 10:46 pm
Argentina win, after a spectacular last-minute admission to the tournament, now to be played over a two-week period on Tristan da Cunha.
Joshua Holmes 01.28.08 at 11:58 pm
I’ll bet Setanta carries it, but I doubt you get that unless you have a dish.
Seeing the World Cup on Versus last year was a real eye-opener about the union game. I had no idea it was that dull.
leinad 01.29.08 at 4:44 am
France sans Chabal?! C’est un imposture!
Kieran Healy 01.29.08 at 4:58 am
Seeing the World Cup on Versus last year was a real eye-opener about the union game. I had no idea it was that dull.
To keep this troll moving, pick up that comment, run two meters, bash into an opponent, fall down, writhe, pause, stand up. Repeat twenty or thirty times.
Toby 01.29.08 at 7:33 am
Re: Ireland winning.
Depends on which team turns up.
Munster players have all returned to form, they might drag their brethren along.
It’s a “do or die” season for Eddie O’Sullivan … another disappointment and his position is untenable. That means Ireland MUST come first or a close second. Not only is his reputation at stake, but his legacy as well. Without an international championship, this Irish team (and itd coach) will always be remembered as “nearly men”.
The single great success for Irish rugby over the last few years was Munster winning the Heineken Cup. That means the most successful Irish coach at this point in time is Declan Kidney.
O’Sullivan & Brian O’Driscoll could end up as footnotes in the history books.
Airbox 01.29.08 at 8:16 am
Or you can compete with your predictions of the outcome of the six nations matches ->
Six Nations Sweepstake
jay bee 01.29.08 at 12:13 pm
Its very disappointing to see all the press & other predictions about Ireland doing well. Eddie O’Sullivan shows all the signs of having learnt absolutely nothing from the World Cup (it was all down to the conditioning of the players being wrong – somebody’s else job apparently) and not Eddie’s other failings as a coach: rigid tactical game plan and a failure to develop any real depth in the squad or competition for team places.
What’s worse is he now seems to be living in a dream world. In an interview in the “english” Independent today he says that he experienced no negative reaction to the World Cup outcome:
” I never had one negative letter after the World Cup, or anything like that,” he says. “There’s been absolutely no backlash at all from the public.”
What planet is Eddie on and is it it the same one as the RDS in Dublin where the crowd booed when the TV screen in the ground showed a close up of Eddie at the game??
France for the 6-Nations – six uncapped players in the squad of 22 for the Scottish match. (Eddie managed 2 in his extended squad of 30plus).
Hopefully Italy will beat Ireland in Croke Park on Saturday and we’ll be rid of him. Failing that, if his hand picked veterans can’t beat a team of relative novices in Paris…
John Edward 01.29.08 at 12:14 pm
Crazy.
Scotland has had a poor time of it of late, and last year against Italy still hurts.
But the team is getting visibly stronger, has only had one bad injury loss, played a tactically wise World Cup campaign, and is facing France and England at home (who have both had a lot of retirals) while the others away.
Wherever they do come – I’m not getting cocky – it WON’T be wooden spoon for Scotland. You read it here first.
Gurney 01.29.08 at 1:08 pm
this year looks more open that more reent years with Welsh players on form and doing well in the HC, France are always a danger, especially with 2 home games against the so called ‘big 2’ and Ireland and England in the mix. I simply cant wait till the games kickoff and we get our annual rugby fest….
Prediction: Ireland to win championship in 2008…
John Edward 01.29.08 at 3:17 pm
I should have added that the two Scottish pro teams have being doing (relatively) well with their meagre resopurces in the past few months.
Some good results against big opposition.
Light at the end of the tunnel, or the incoming Flying Scotsman? You decide.
a 01.29.08 at 10:37 pm
I take New England over the Giants.
shteve 01.29.08 at 11:30 pm
Heineken Cup mentality: every team to win its home games, with Ireland-England at Twickenham the sole exception.
France have Ntamak coaching the backs, so expect them to revisit their former glories … and repeat some time-honoured mistakes.
Scotland to shine. Wales to intrigue. Italy to make their minds up – although a home win against England will stop the nagging.
The RWC was quite dull the closer you got to the final. Pity.
And if BOD ends up as a footnote, well …
Michael Keyes 01.30.08 at 10:36 pm
France, England, Wales, Ireland, Scotland, Italy, in that order. Ireland will not come close to their promise while Wales will win one more game than predicted.
You can all go home now.
Jimbo 01.30.08 at 11:31 pm
I do believe this won’t be Ireland’s year – nor last year’s winner, France. Rather my prediction is that the teams finish up in the following order: England, Scotland, France, Wales, Ireland, Italy. The big surprize will be Scotland who I think will beat England at Murrayfield and lose only to France at Saint-Denis. France will do well but will lose to England at home and to Wales at Millenium.
The caveat to this is that I say the same thing every year hoping that one of these years, my predictions will be born out. ;-)
Chunter 01.31.08 at 7:47 am
I can’t remember the last time that there was only one Leicester player (here Moody) in an England team. There will be more Tigers (Geordan Murphy and Castrogiovanni) playing in Dublin than at Twickenham. Hamilton will be playing for Scotland against France.
The Ospreys, who supply 13 players to the Wales team, have lost all the three matches they have played against the Tigers since their formation a few years ago.
Neil 01.31.08 at 2:04 pm
Regan’s continued selection baffles me, too. He was bloody dreadful at Bath – his throwing earned him the nickname ‘scud’, and his occasional attempts to play as an extra winger were, well, interesting. I suppose at least he gets stuck in, although even that was a problem at times.
bernarda 02.02.08 at 6:44 pm
As I thought about the England team, they are too old and they ran out of steam against Wales.
Ireland should have been better against Italy. So we will see tomorrow how France/Scotland goes. Who knows, this may be Wales’s year.
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